Strength In Numbers

Strength In Numbers

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Seven data-driven lessons from the 2025 elections
Democrats outran their polls and swept statewide races from Georgia to New Jersey, on an agenda of affordability and a broad anti-Trump backlash
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G. Elliott Morris
How to watch tonight's statewide election results, plus final forecasts in key races
What the early and Election Day turnout data is saying in Virginia and New Jersey
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G. Elliott Morris
The Democrats' problem in the Senate is not progressives | Weekly roundup for November 2, 2025
Their big problem is not a lack of moderates, it's nationalization of party brands. And: A new era for the exit poll; The end game of partisan…
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G. Elliott Morris
New poll: Voters want Democrats to win in NJ, VA and in 2026, as they push back on Trump
Plus: Voters trust Democrats more than Republicans to handle the economy; a majority of voters say Trump is acting above the law; and 62% say the…
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G. Elliott Morris
The Strategist’s Fallacy in American politics
The average American voter does not think about politics the way elite strategists and pundits do
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G. Elliott Morris
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Strength In Numbers
Strength In Numbers
Independent, data-driven analysis of politics, public opinion, and elections. A place for thinking smarter with data.
Top posts
The New York Times is wrong about the electoral value of moderation | Weekly roundup for October 26, 2025
The paper's arguments hinge on several methodological flaws, and it dismisses valid empirical alternatives. Plus: Gerrymandering, and the Republicans…
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G. Elliott Morris
Polls show voters now trust Democrats more to handle the economy
The issue that sank Democrats in 2024 now threatens to do the same to Republicans in 2025 and the 2026 midterms
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G. Elliott Morris
No Kings Day numbers update; and Democrats pull ahead in national party ID polls
What to make of this? Plus, the size of the anti-Trump, pro-GOP bloc; and polls on mass deportations. This is the Strength In Numbers October 2025 Q&A.
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G. Elliott Morris
Shutdowns are dumb and voters hate them | Weekly roundup for October 19, 2025
If you’re going to shut down the government, do it because you think it's worth it. Also this week: The VRA, gerrymandering and the midterms; party…
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G. Elliott Morris
Second "No Kings Day" protests the largest single-day political protest ever*, with 5-6.5 million participants
Here are the initial results from our crowdsourced crowd-counting estimates
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G. Elliott Morris
Democrats up 6, 10 points in new averages of New Jersey and Virginia governor polls
Aggregators take note: We found that many polls in these contests are sponsored by or affiliated with GOP campaigns, increasing potential bias of…
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G. Elliott Morris
Voters say Republicans aren't focusing enough on pocketbook issues
59% view the GOP as "too extreme," compared to 46% who say the same for Democrats
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G. Elliott Morris
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The latest from
G. Elliott Morris
Seven data-driven lessons from the 2025 elections
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Is Trump “doing what he promised”? | Weekly roundup for October 12, 2025
And what does that even mean? Also this week: Shutdown polls; Left-wing populism; Low favorability ratings for all U.S. leaders; Judges' concerns about…
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G. Elliott Morris
Will Democrats sweep Virginia's 2025 elections?
A conversation with forecaster and Virginia state politics expert Chaz Nuttycombe
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G. Elliott Morris
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52:37
A majority of Americans oppose Trump sending the National Guard to Democratic-run cities
The president is defying the will of the people, federal judges, and the Constitution
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G. Elliott Morris
Announcing a new polling and elections data business (and new site for my polling averages)
FiftyPlusOne will publish polling averages and election forecasts, and make bespoke data collection available to individuals and business clients
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G. Elliott Morris
Why most polls overstate support for political violence
Misperceptions about the popularity of violence increase public support for it — but you can help change that.
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G. Elliott Morris
All the polls on the government shutdown so far | Weekly roundup for October 5, 2025
Also this week: Dems lead in Virginia election polling; economic sentiment is down; people are turning against sports betting; + more!
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G. Elliott Morris
Trump is racing against time
The president's approval rating is closer to Nicolás Maduro's than Vladimir Putin’s
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G. Elliott Morris
© 2025 G. Elliott Morris
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