Seven data-driven lessons from the 2025 elections

Democrats outran their polls and swept statewide races from Georgia to New Jersey, on an agenda of affordability and a broad anti-Trump backlash

The headline story from this year’s elections is simple: Democrats increased their support across the country and swept all the marquee contests in key states. Democratic Governor-elect Abigail Spanberger won Virginia by ~14 points, while Mikie Sherrill kept New Jersey blue by a double-digit margin. Georgia delivered two more statewide wins for Democrats, flipping both Public Service Commission seats for the first time in recent memory, and Pennsylvania elected a new Democratic lower-court judge (while keeping all its existing Supreme Court Democrats). And a socialist is now mayor of New York City.

These results point to an environment that’s significantly friendlier to Democrats than most pre‑election polls and the “vibes” suggested. An early forecast for the 2026 midterms — based on the historical predictive power of Virginia’s governor elections — suggests a national environment that looks something like D+8 to D+9, compared to the D+3 to D+4 in polls today.

None of this, however, wa…