3 Comments
User's avatar
Mary Virginia Hughes's avatar

Guess, what, there's a majority whether they say it out loud or not that he should never have been president the first time. I hope the people who couldn't wait to vote for him are standing in the line for government aid just like the poor people they hate.

Frank A Wolkenberg's avatar

This is a little beside the point, but insofar as it remains a question, it would be interesting to know the extent to which those supporting Trump's various policies all share a common perspective. An obvious, direct measure is just to look at the correlation between answers of individuals. But, it would also (to me, at least) be interesting to understand the larger information bubble in which they exist. To this end, a question like: "How likely do you think it is that the problems with the Reflecting Pool were deliberate sabotage?" might be enlightening.

Jack Wells's avatar

Translating disapproval numbers into numbers of House seats won is tricky because the number of competitive seats has fallen drastically over time. I don’t think you can point to past years and say “In year X we had a lead of Y points in the generic poll of Republicans vs. Democrats and we won Z number of seats” and expect that to be replicated in 2026. Gerrymandering has reduced the number of competitive seats, and we need to make some adjustment for that in forecasting how many seats we can expect to pick up.