As awful as these numbers are for Trump and Republicans they have little bearing on what will happen in November. The Trump plan is to nullify Democratic wins as fake. Likely there will be no Presidential vote in 2028. We're pretty much stuck with him till he's dead.
I don't see the 15-20% of adults as remaining MAGA as a result of scientific analysis nor is it particularly meaningful. Elections are won by actual voters. And Trump has a third locked. His range of the remainder is 10-17% depending on the opposition.
Loved your conversation with Paul Krugman. You both bring so much to the conversation and explain complicated ideas in ways I can understand. Will watch your TV interview next.
Mr. Morrison, perhaps it's because my coffee hasn't yet unlocked my summer cold-addled brain, but you wrote:
"Trump won about half of the votes cast in 2024. That is only about a third of American adults." ...
And,
"In July, Quinnipiac pegged Trump’s...overall job approval in that poll was 32% — the lowest Quinnipiac has ever measured for him."
It seems to me that the third of American adults who voted for him in 2024 remains intact (at least when looking at overall approval numbers, including votes). Is this his solid basement of support that will never be cracked, no matter what he does? As you reported, his numbers are much worse when looking at specific issues, such as the ongoing war against Iran, the economy, etc. Yet his overall approval seems to reflect his '24 election result.
"Trump won about half of the votes cast in 2024. That is only about a third of American adults. Accounting for defections and disaffection, maybe 15-20% of the population is fully on board with super MAGA stuff like shutting down ABC-owned news affiliates."
It is important to remember how vigorously the right-wind media universe tries to prop up the myth that Trump is invincible. In fact, MAGA is shrinking, not growing.
"Regular" (such as they are) Republicans are repelled by his endless lying, corruption, and abuse of his power. Hopefully they will either stay home or summon the courage to vote against their spineless, toadying representatives this fall.
The only question remaining is whether Trump's plots to interfere in the elections (gerrymandering, stacking state election boards with buddies from 2020, planting ICE agents at the polls to incite protests, etc.) will affect the mid-term outcomes.
As I keep saying, we need a Hungarian-style tsunami to make it crystal clear that Trump and Trumpism are on the way OUT.
“Teflon Don” was always a misnomer, made up by retainers & fans. Made up by ignoring when he was held responsible, such as the $25M to settle Trump U. The $2M to settle Trump Foundation. Being defeated in 2020. Being convicted of 34 counts of fraud. Losing to E. Jean Carroll. etc.
As awful as these numbers are for Trump and Republicans they have little bearing on what will happen in November. The Trump plan is to nullify Democratic wins as fake. Likely there will be no Presidential vote in 2028. We're pretty much stuck with him till he's dead.
Well, we are stuck if people give up. I refuse to do so.
It's not about giving up. It's about how far you will go to defend your freedom.
I don't see the 15-20% of adults as remaining MAGA as a result of scientific analysis nor is it particularly meaningful. Elections are won by actual voters. And Trump has a third locked. His range of the remainder is 10-17% depending on the opposition.
The sub header mentions “anti-incumbent bias”, but I didn’t find anything in the body of the newsletter on that topic. Did I miss it?
Loved your conversation with Paul Krugman. You both bring so much to the conversation and explain complicated ideas in ways I can understand. Will watch your TV interview next.
Mr. Morrison, perhaps it's because my coffee hasn't yet unlocked my summer cold-addled brain, but you wrote:
"Trump won about half of the votes cast in 2024. That is only about a third of American adults." ...
And,
"In July, Quinnipiac pegged Trump’s...overall job approval in that poll was 32% — the lowest Quinnipiac has ever measured for him."
It seems to me that the third of American adults who voted for him in 2024 remains intact (at least when looking at overall approval numbers, including votes). Is this his solid basement of support that will never be cracked, no matter what he does? As you reported, his numbers are much worse when looking at specific issues, such as the ongoing war against Iran, the economy, etc. Yet his overall approval seems to reflect his '24 election result.
Or am I mistaken to interpret your data this way?
"Trump won about half of the votes cast in 2024. That is only about a third of American adults. Accounting for defections and disaffection, maybe 15-20% of the population is fully on board with super MAGA stuff like shutting down ABC-owned news affiliates."
It is important to remember how vigorously the right-wind media universe tries to prop up the myth that Trump is invincible. In fact, MAGA is shrinking, not growing.
"Regular" (such as they are) Republicans are repelled by his endless lying, corruption, and abuse of his power. Hopefully they will either stay home or summon the courage to vote against their spineless, toadying representatives this fall.
The only question remaining is whether Trump's plots to interfere in the elections (gerrymandering, stacking state election boards with buddies from 2020, planting ICE agents at the polls to incite protests, etc.) will affect the mid-term outcomes.
As I keep saying, we need a Hungarian-style tsunami to make it crystal clear that Trump and Trumpism are on the way OUT.
“Teflon Don” was always a misnomer, made up by retainers & fans. Made up by ignoring when he was held responsible, such as the $25M to settle Trump U. The $2M to settle Trump Foundation. Being defeated in 2020. Being convicted of 34 counts of fraud. Losing to E. Jean Carroll. etc.
Imagine if corporate media for even one second held the Rep party to the same standard it applies to Dems. Or any standard...