I wonder if recalibrating our approval/disapproval of the parties, and agreeing that the system is broken and needs a reset (strong feelings in agreement from me), is a function of the vast number of things the Trump admin/MAGA/Reps have screwed up for most people.
I don’t ever remember a time when an administration has created so much chaos, and subsequently, the number of issues to react to. (I’m pushing 70, so I can compare back to Nixon). It’s not just a generic economy question anymore or foreign policy or any specific policy. It is everything all at once.
A little off-topic, but lets not forget that Biden's evacuation of Afghanistan was a result of Trump's negotiated surrender to the Taliban. As a general testified, if we hadn't been out of Afghanistan by Sept.1, 2021, we would have been at war with the Taliban.
And if this force of 2500 troops had stayed behind as some have suggested, that would have grown to at least tens of thousands once those troops came under fire, prolonging the forever war even further.
I get your point, but don’t fully agree with it. I agree that Trump is unpopular and getting more so. I think Biden, and by extension Harris, were hurt by absolutely savage media coverage, that has not been fully replicated with Trump, despite the massive gulf in competency and goals between the two administrations. The most obvious examples are the differences on the coverage of their ages and capacities, and the coverage on inflation. The Biden inflation was consistent with a worldwide trend following Covid, and economic indicators showed that the US economy over-performed relative to other advanced economies. Biden got basically no credit for that. The Trump inflation has been mostly an outcome of Trump’s policies. The media coverage hasn’t made these differences nearly clear enough (interesting that your data show the public may be figuring it out to some extent anyway). Given what a complete and unprecedented attack Trump’s administration has been on the country and also on international stability, his poll numbers should be much lower and he should have been impeached and convicted by now. He continues to benefit from general disbelief in both the media and the public in how intentionally and unnecessarily damaging his second term has been.
Illuminating analysis, as always. It's easy to identify with Ian Bassin's post--especially for those of us in red states who are inundated with a constant barrage of MAGA propaganda even if we don't watch Fox. But it's even more helpful to look at the data as a check on our emotions.
As awful as these numbers are for Trump and Republicans they have little bearing on what will happen in November. The Trump plan is to nullify Democratic wins as fake. Likely there will be no Presidential vote in 2028. We're pretty much stuck with him till he's dead.
I don't see the 15-20% of adults as remaining MAGA as a result of scientific analysis nor is it particularly meaningful. Elections are won by actual voters. And Trump has a third locked. His range of the remainder is 10-17% depending on the opposition.
Loved your conversation with Paul Krugman. You both bring so much to the conversation and explain complicated ideas in ways I can understand. Will watch your TV interview next.
Mr. Morrison, perhaps it's because my coffee hasn't yet unlocked my summer cold-addled brain, but you wrote:
"Trump won about half of the votes cast in 2024. That is only about a third of American adults." ...
And,
"In July, Quinnipiac pegged Trump’s...overall job approval in that poll was 32% — the lowest Quinnipiac has ever measured for him."
It seems to me that the third of American adults who voted for him in 2024 remains intact (at least when looking at overall approval numbers, including votes). Is this his solid basement of support that will never be cracked, no matter what he does? As you reported, his numbers are much worse when looking at specific issues, such as the ongoing war against Iran, the economy, etc. Yet his overall approval seems to reflect his '24 election result.
"Trump won about half of the votes cast in 2024. That is only about a third of American adults. Accounting for defections and disaffection, maybe 15-20% of the population is fully on board with super MAGA stuff like shutting down ABC-owned news affiliates."
It is important to remember how vigorously the right-wind media universe tries to prop up the myth that Trump is invincible. In fact, MAGA is shrinking, not growing.
"Regular" (such as they are) Republicans are repelled by his endless lying, corruption, and abuse of his power. Hopefully they will either stay home or summon the courage to vote against their spineless, toadying representatives this fall.
The only question remaining is whether Trump's plots to interfere in the elections (gerrymandering, stacking state election boards with buddies from 2020, planting ICE agents at the polls to incite protests, etc.) will affect the mid-term outcomes.
As I keep saying, we need a Hungarian-style tsunami to make it crystal clear that Trump and Trumpism are on the way OUT.
“Teflon Don” was always a misnomer, made up by retainers & fans. Made up by ignoring when he was held responsible, such as the $25M to settle Trump U. The $2M to settle Trump Foundation. Being defeated in 2020. Being convicted of 34 counts of fraud. Losing to E. Jean Carroll. etc.
I wonder if recalibrating our approval/disapproval of the parties, and agreeing that the system is broken and needs a reset (strong feelings in agreement from me), is a function of the vast number of things the Trump admin/MAGA/Reps have screwed up for most people.
I don’t ever remember a time when an administration has created so much chaos, and subsequently, the number of issues to react to. (I’m pushing 70, so I can compare back to Nixon). It’s not just a generic economy question anymore or foreign policy or any specific policy. It is everything all at once.
A little off-topic, but lets not forget that Biden's evacuation of Afghanistan was a result of Trump's negotiated surrender to the Taliban. As a general testified, if we hadn't been out of Afghanistan by Sept.1, 2021, we would have been at war with the Taliban.
And if this force of 2500 troops had stayed behind as some have suggested, that would have grown to at least tens of thousands once those troops came under fire, prolonging the forever war even further.
I get your point, but don’t fully agree with it. I agree that Trump is unpopular and getting more so. I think Biden, and by extension Harris, were hurt by absolutely savage media coverage, that has not been fully replicated with Trump, despite the massive gulf in competency and goals between the two administrations. The most obvious examples are the differences on the coverage of their ages and capacities, and the coverage on inflation. The Biden inflation was consistent with a worldwide trend following Covid, and economic indicators showed that the US economy over-performed relative to other advanced economies. Biden got basically no credit for that. The Trump inflation has been mostly an outcome of Trump’s policies. The media coverage hasn’t made these differences nearly clear enough (interesting that your data show the public may be figuring it out to some extent anyway). Given what a complete and unprecedented attack Trump’s administration has been on the country and also on international stability, his poll numbers should be much lower and he should have been impeached and convicted by now. He continues to benefit from general disbelief in both the media and the public in how intentionally and unnecessarily damaging his second term has been.
Illuminating analysis, as always. It's easy to identify with Ian Bassin's post--especially for those of us in red states who are inundated with a constant barrage of MAGA propaganda even if we don't watch Fox. But it's even more helpful to look at the data as a check on our emotions.
As awful as these numbers are for Trump and Republicans they have little bearing on what will happen in November. The Trump plan is to nullify Democratic wins as fake. Likely there will be no Presidential vote in 2028. We're pretty much stuck with him till he's dead.
The plan won’t work.
Well, we are stuck if people give up. I refuse to do so.
It's not about giving up. It's about how far you will go to defend your freedom.
I don't see the 15-20% of adults as remaining MAGA as a result of scientific analysis nor is it particularly meaningful. Elections are won by actual voters. And Trump has a third locked. His range of the remainder is 10-17% depending on the opposition.
The sub header mentions “anti-incumbent bias”, but I didn’t find anything in the body of the newsletter on that topic. Did I miss it?
Loved your conversation with Paul Krugman. You both bring so much to the conversation and explain complicated ideas in ways I can understand. Will watch your TV interview next.
Mr. Morrison, perhaps it's because my coffee hasn't yet unlocked my summer cold-addled brain, but you wrote:
"Trump won about half of the votes cast in 2024. That is only about a third of American adults." ...
And,
"In July, Quinnipiac pegged Trump’s...overall job approval in that poll was 32% — the lowest Quinnipiac has ever measured for him."
It seems to me that the third of American adults who voted for him in 2024 remains intact (at least when looking at overall approval numbers, including votes). Is this his solid basement of support that will never be cracked, no matter what he does? As you reported, his numbers are much worse when looking at specific issues, such as the ongoing war against Iran, the economy, etc. Yet his overall approval seems to reflect his '24 election result.
Or am I mistaken to interpret your data this way?
"Trump won about half of the votes cast in 2024. That is only about a third of American adults. Accounting for defections and disaffection, maybe 15-20% of the population is fully on board with super MAGA stuff like shutting down ABC-owned news affiliates."
It is important to remember how vigorously the right-wind media universe tries to prop up the myth that Trump is invincible. In fact, MAGA is shrinking, not growing.
"Regular" (such as they are) Republicans are repelled by his endless lying, corruption, and abuse of his power. Hopefully they will either stay home or summon the courage to vote against their spineless, toadying representatives this fall.
The only question remaining is whether Trump's plots to interfere in the elections (gerrymandering, stacking state election boards with buddies from 2020, planting ICE agents at the polls to incite protests, etc.) will affect the mid-term outcomes.
As I keep saying, we need a Hungarian-style tsunami to make it crystal clear that Trump and Trumpism are on the way OUT.
“Teflon Don” was always a misnomer, made up by retainers & fans. Made up by ignoring when he was held responsible, such as the $25M to settle Trump U. The $2M to settle Trump Foundation. Being defeated in 2020. Being convicted of 34 counts of fraud. Losing to E. Jean Carroll. etc.
Imagine if corporate media for even one second held the Rep party to the same standard it applies to Dems. Or any standard...