This article reports results from the October 2026 Strength In Numbers/Verasight poll. A methodology description is included at the end of this article. You can find toplines for this as well as our previous poll releases at the Strength In Numbers polling portal.
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Just under two weeks before Election Day, our new Strength In Numbers/Verasight poll finds Democrats with their largest lead on the generic congressional ballot in the 17 waves of this survey since May 2025.
Among registered voters, 52% say they would vote for the Democratic candidate for the House in their district and 41% for the Republican, a margin of 10.4 points using unrounded figures. That edges past our previous high of 10.1 points in February. Among likely voters, Democrats lead 54% to 42%, a 12-point margin and also a high for the series. The Republican Party’s 41% among registered voters is the lowest share it has received in our poll.
The president himself is roughly where he was in September, which was the worst month of his second term in our data. Just 34% of Americans approve of the job he is doing and 62% disapprove. But his ratings on immigration, border security and deportations — the issues that carried him in 2024 — all fell to new lows. Republicans now hold no advantage over Democrats on either immigration or deportations.
Below, I report full results from our monthly Strength In Numbers/Verasight political tracking survey, including what Americans want the next Congress to do about Trump’s agenda, who has heard from the campaigns, and what voters think about impeachment.
In three forthcoming articles here at Strength In Numbers, I use our new poll to... (1) measure the change in voting intention among low-knowledge and low-political-engagement voters, who were responsible for Donald Trump’s win in 2024 but who we have theorized are more cost-sensitive — is that true?; (2) estimate potential error in other polls of the generic ballot that may be driven by recall bias in the polls — a phenomenon where people who voted for Trump or Kamala Harris now say they don’t; and (3) explore the possibility that polls are picking up the “wrong type” of Trump voter — specifically those from more urban or suburban areas of the country, and not picking up rural MAGA voters.
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