A revised method for measuring pollster quality, now published at 538

A few tips for reading 538's updated pollster ratings, and why I think they're so cool

Today at 538 we unveiled our latest set of pollster ratings for the upcoming 2024 general election. This update includes grades for 540 polling organizations based on two key criteria: their empirical record of accuracy and methodological transparency.

Here are the products of all our work: The interactive dashboard for these new ratings is particularly cool. I’m also proud of the extremely detailed public methodology post we put out; If we’re saying that pollsters should show their work, it’s good that we do the same. And be sure to read the announcement article on the ABC News website, which explores the points below in greater detail.

For those wanting a shorter read on all this, here are the highlights:

Methodological Updates

For these new ratings, I developed a new methodology for 538 that ranks pollsters based on their empirical accuracy and methodological transparency. The methodology considers factors such as overall absolute error in past election polls, bias towards a particular…