The new Strength In Numbers/Verasight poll finds Democrats leading on the generic ballot by 10 points among registered voters, and Trump approval on immigration falling to -15
Excellent analysis as usual! Thank you for your professionalism! Can you contrast Trump today with polling data during Biden’s 2024 numbers 8 months before the last election so that we can evaluate any distinctions?
This is all so helpful! Can I ask why you poll all adults vs registered voters? I would think registered voters would give a better understanding of the political situation
I'm wondering if there is a way to ask some survey questions that would reveal exactly what people believe "border security" means. The Republicans loved this shorthand, which they use for illegal immigration, and it has now been embedded that way in surveys. Was there more illegal immigration under Democratic presidents? When I think of border security, I think about the terrorists who murdered so many people on September 11, in other words, people who enter the United States with malign intentions, not people who enter illegally for economic or quality of life reasons.
Loved: "So we asked voters to tell us what they would like the government to spend a hypothetical $75 billion on."
Concrete framing for questions "should" improve quality of responses as compared to a "soft" question like "What should the government spend more money on?"
There's a concrete tariff question in the form of tariffs vs taxes:
"Would you like the federal government to replace $150 billion of projected tariff revenue with $150 billion in tax revenue?" This would require respondents to have a view of who pays tariffs and who pays taxes while being revenue neutral.
Thanks, G.E.M! Friends- you can help: volunteer with VoteRiders. They help folks get (and they have funds to pay for) the ID documents required to vote. You can do it remotely, from home, on your own schedule. Sign up for orientation at VoteRiders.org/orientation
Excellent analysis as usual! Thank you for your professionalism! Can you contrast Trump today with polling data during Biden’s 2024 numbers 8 months before the last election so that we can evaluate any distinctions?
This is all so helpful! Can I ask why you poll all adults vs registered voters? I would think registered voters would give a better understanding of the political situation
I'm wondering if there is a way to ask some survey questions that would reveal exactly what people believe "border security" means. The Republicans loved this shorthand, which they use for illegal immigration, and it has now been embedded that way in surveys. Was there more illegal immigration under Democratic presidents? When I think of border security, I think about the terrorists who murdered so many people on September 11, in other words, people who enter the United States with malign intentions, not people who enter illegally for economic or quality of life reasons.
"Direction of country: Only 10% say things are going well in America. 52% say things are going poorly and major changes are needed."
All good news.
Now, if citizens will just get up off their couch, tuck away their tiktok, and show up at the polls in November.
I have voted in every election (both local and national) since 1980. It's time we all take our civic duties seriously.
Any Senate data?
Just want to say, I appreciate the issue breakdowns and being able to track them over his entire term. Very interesting and informative!
Loved: "So we asked voters to tell us what they would like the government to spend a hypothetical $75 billion on."
Concrete framing for questions "should" improve quality of responses as compared to a "soft" question like "What should the government spend more money on?"
There's a concrete tariff question in the form of tariffs vs taxes:
"Would you like the federal government to replace $150 billion of projected tariff revenue with $150 billion in tax revenue?" This would require respondents to have a view of who pays tariffs and who pays taxes while being revenue neutral.
Thanks, G.E.M! Friends- you can help: volunteer with VoteRiders. They help folks get (and they have funds to pay for) the ID documents required to vote. You can do it remotely, from home, on your own schedule. Sign up for orientation at VoteRiders.org/orientation