The new Strength In Numbers/Verasight poll finds Democrats leading on the generic ballot by 10 points among registered voters, and Trump approval on immigration falling to -15
I think the “term limits” and “expand the court” solutions do not get at the underlying problem and we need to think more structurally. The court legally has a very unclear definition. Chief Justice John Marshall created the court we know in part because he didn’t like riding the circuit. While that may be impractical, it is perfectly plausible for Congress to reorganize it and allow each Circuit to send one judge to the court for a limited elected term. That would return the court’s focus to the law. The court has long focused excessively on politics (maybe always, as they overturned the Bill of Rights and the Reconstruction amendments without legal authority) and it needs to function like a judicial system, not a royal branch of government. Appointment (or election) to the court should require them to get support from other judges, not politicians.
The pardon power must be strictly limited or eliminated. This is a royal prerogative that is a holdover from royal days. If retained, a legal panel process must be required.
Obviously the Electoral College must be eliminated. I figured this out in eighth grade; why is this still a debate? And I think if we do not abolish the Senate, at least representation should be based on population.
The problems with the dysfunctional court and Congress are structural, and the reform ideas you are polling are merely derivative of the dysfunctional form.
This poll generally is an outlier compared to most polls that were more accurate in the last presidential election. Also, it’s rather foolhardy to think this poll accurately capture low-propensity voters that are now part of the Trump base and have been hard to capture in polls when it comes to actually voting - which makes one take this with a grain of salt. You also seem to introduce a personal bias too. We have to look at all this in the context of your analysis and data which did not fare well in the 2024 election…
Excellent analysis as usual! Thank you for your professionalism! Can you contrast Trump today with polling data during Biden’s 2024 numbers 8 months before the last election so that we can evaluate any distinctions?
This is all so helpful! Can I ask why you poll all adults vs registered voters? I would think registered voters would give a better understanding of the political situation
I'm wondering if there is a way to ask some survey questions that would reveal exactly what people believe "border security" means. The Republicans loved this shorthand, which they use for illegal immigration, and it has now been embedded that way in surveys. Was there more illegal immigration under Democratic presidents? When I think of border security, I think about the terrorists who murdered so many people on September 11, in other words, people who enter the United States with malign intentions, not people who enter illegally for economic or quality of life reasons.
I think FOX News created a narrative about "border security" starting in 2018 with manufactured hysteria about the "caravans" coming up through Mexico. We had a big surge of Venezuelans and Central Americans due to violence at home so that's what Americans associate.
Loved: "So we asked voters to tell us what they would like the government to spend a hypothetical $75 billion on."
Concrete framing for questions "should" improve quality of responses as compared to a "soft" question like "What should the government spend more money on?"
There's a concrete tariff question in the form of tariffs vs taxes:
"Would you like the federal government to replace $150 billion of projected tariff revenue with $150 billion in tax revenue?" This would require respondents to have a view of who pays tariffs and who pays taxes while being revenue neutral.
Thanks, G.E.M! Friends- you can help: volunteer with VoteRiders. They help folks get (and they have funds to pay for) the ID documents required to vote. You can do it remotely, from home, on your own schedule. Sign up for orientation at VoteRiders.org/orientation
I think the “term limits” and “expand the court” solutions do not get at the underlying problem and we need to think more structurally. The court legally has a very unclear definition. Chief Justice John Marshall created the court we know in part because he didn’t like riding the circuit. While that may be impractical, it is perfectly plausible for Congress to reorganize it and allow each Circuit to send one judge to the court for a limited elected term. That would return the court’s focus to the law. The court has long focused excessively on politics (maybe always, as they overturned the Bill of Rights and the Reconstruction amendments without legal authority) and it needs to function like a judicial system, not a royal branch of government. Appointment (or election) to the court should require them to get support from other judges, not politicians.
The pardon power must be strictly limited or eliminated. This is a royal prerogative that is a holdover from royal days. If retained, a legal panel process must be required.
Obviously the Electoral College must be eliminated. I figured this out in eighth grade; why is this still a debate? And I think if we do not abolish the Senate, at least representation should be based on population.
The problems with the dysfunctional court and Congress are structural, and the reform ideas you are polling are merely derivative of the dysfunctional form.
This poll generally is an outlier compared to most polls that were more accurate in the last presidential election. Also, it’s rather foolhardy to think this poll accurately capture low-propensity voters that are now part of the Trump base and have been hard to capture in polls when it comes to actually voting - which makes one take this with a grain of salt. You also seem to introduce a personal bias too. We have to look at all this in the context of your analysis and data which did not fare well in the 2024 election…
Excellent analysis as usual! Thank you for your professionalism! Can you contrast Trump today with polling data during Biden’s 2024 numbers 8 months before the last election so that we can evaluate any distinctions?
This is all so helpful! Can I ask why you poll all adults vs registered voters? I would think registered voters would give a better understanding of the political situation
I'm wondering if there is a way to ask some survey questions that would reveal exactly what people believe "border security" means. The Republicans loved this shorthand, which they use for illegal immigration, and it has now been embedded that way in surveys. Was there more illegal immigration under Democratic presidents? When I think of border security, I think about the terrorists who murdered so many people on September 11, in other words, people who enter the United States with malign intentions, not people who enter illegally for economic or quality of life reasons.
I think FOX News created a narrative about "border security" starting in 2018 with manufactured hysteria about the "caravans" coming up through Mexico. We had a big surge of Venezuelans and Central Americans due to violence at home so that's what Americans associate.
"Direction of country: Only 10% say things are going well in America. 52% say things are going poorly and major changes are needed."
All good news.
Now, if citizens will just get up off their couch, tuck away their tiktok, and show up at the polls in November.
I have voted in every election (both local and national) since 1980. It's time we all take our civic duties seriously.
Any Senate data?
Just want to say, I appreciate the issue breakdowns and being able to track them over his entire term. Very interesting and informative!
Loved: "So we asked voters to tell us what they would like the government to spend a hypothetical $75 billion on."
Concrete framing for questions "should" improve quality of responses as compared to a "soft" question like "What should the government spend more money on?"
There's a concrete tariff question in the form of tariffs vs taxes:
"Would you like the federal government to replace $150 billion of projected tariff revenue with $150 billion in tax revenue?" This would require respondents to have a view of who pays tariffs and who pays taxes while being revenue neutral.
Thanks, G.E.M! Friends- you can help: volunteer with VoteRiders. They help folks get (and they have funds to pay for) the ID documents required to vote. You can do it remotely, from home, on your own schedule. Sign up for orientation at VoteRiders.org/orientation