All the polls on the LA protests and Trump's response so far

The president's approval rating on immigration and deportations is falling fast

Dear readers,

I have struggled to come up with more to say on the Los Angeles protests that isn't repetitive of some of the great things other people are writing on the subject. But then it struck me that it may be useful to readers of this newsletter for someone to publish one piece containing all the public opinion polling we're getting about the protests and the surrounding issues.

While "what do the polls say?" is not the most important question at the moment (uncertainty about civil rights violations and the impact of future troop deployments are worth more thought in the aggregate), I think presenting the data may enable better journalism on the subject — and public polling can also be a key variable in shaping political outcomes. So, in the narrow context of this newsletter, I think the polls on this issue are worth taking stock of, and I hope this is useful.

For this week's Chart of the Week, let's look at all the polls on the LA protests. How do people feel about the protesters? What about Trump's use of the military to suppress dissent and support federal immigration officers in their deportations? Is this having an impact on broader opinions about immigration and deportations?

Answers to all that, and more, below the fold.

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Quick reminder to submit your questions for our inaugural Strength In Numbers Q&A newsletter, to be published Tuesday, June 24! I’ll take questions up to June 22. All you have to do is email me your question at questions[at]gelliottmorris<dot>com.

I’ll answer 6-8 questions, depending on complexity. With a <1% submission rate, you have a pretty high likelihood of getting chosen. You get credit and an answer to your question; readers get an insightful email, thanks to their fellow community members; and I get food for thought and to feel like I helped you. That’s a win-win-win!

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All the polls this week

In the tables to come, you will find five sets of poll questions about Trump's approval rating on immigration, his approval on deportations, approval of Trump sending in the Marines and National Guard to Los Angeles, approval of the protests in LA themselves, and a question on which law-enforcement agency people preferred to be sent to the city.

And here are the two big takeaways from the data I'm about to show you:

• Americans split about protesters, but oppose Trump's response more

• Trump's approval ratings on immigration and deportations slide into the negative

Here is all the data — all the relevant polls published this week — in one shareable spreadsheet screenshot:

I’ve published the raw data behind this table, including links to each poll, here.

The takeaway: The Trump administration is underwater in 11 out of 12 poll questions related to immigration, deportations, and the LA protests this week. The only poll to come up with positive results for the administration is a YouGov/Economist survey asking whether people approve, broadly, of how Trump is "handling the issue of immigration." At +4, that represents a 3-point decline from the +7 reading in YouGov's poll last week.

One event that may impact the polling to come: Late Thursday evening, a federal judge in California blocked Trump’s federalization of the California National Guard.

Trump's immigration approval falls

YouGov is not the only firm to show Trump losing ground on immigration.

In our Strength In Numbers average of issue approval polls from many different firms, Trump's net approval on handling immigration has fallen from +5.1 to -1.3 over the last week. This represents the fastest decline in his rating since the dip after press coverage of Kilmar Abrego Garcia peaked in April.

View an interactive version of this chart here.

Trump's overall net approval has also fallen in the last week, from -6.5 on June 9, 2025, to -8.4 today, June 13, 2025.

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The attention gap

Here's one final wrinkle:

According to the Post/GMU crosstabs, the more closely Americans are following the news in LA, the less they like the idea of soldiers on city streets. Net approval for Trump's actions is 17 points underwater among the 34% of people who say they are paying "a lot of attention" to the protests, versus +27 among people who aren't.

This is either a sign of composition effects in the survey data — Democrats have selected into paying attention to the news, and they are automatically predisposed to opposing Trump — or a warning sign for the administration.

If the crosstab hints at a relationship between paying attention to the protests and disapproving of Trump's handling of them, those top-line numbers will get worse for the White House as coverage grows and more Americans move from the “little” to the “some” or “a lot” buckets.

Why the polls matter

Some thoughts follow on why public opinion about the protests matters:

Politics in the short term. I have argued that Trump is at risk of overstepping the bounds of public opinion with his response to the situation in LA. Let me explore this from another angle:

While I was finishing up this article on Thursday afternoon, law-enforcement officers tackled U.S. Senator from California Alex Padilla to the ground (they did not charge or arrest him with anything) for "being disrespectful" while asking questions at a Homeland Security press briefing.

Several Republican Senators, including Lisa Murkowski, are already distancing themselves from the actions of the administration. The numbers above could tip them over the edge in speaking out more on the issue, or supporting legislation to roll back the president's powers on this issue and elsewhere.

Erosion of free speech rights in the long term. The events of the last week mark an acute degradation in the rule of law and constitutional protections for free speech in America. Federal law enforcement has now been complicit in the detaining of peaceful citizen protesters as well as the arrest of journalists documenting them, which they are entitled to do under the First Amendment.

Federal troops are also present when state and local law enforcement have said they are not needed or welcome, directed in what appears to be a power grab by the president and his advisers.

Worse, though, over the last week we have seen the president of the United States repeatedly call for the use of federal troops and domestic law enforcement to suppress any constitutionally protected free-speech rights at his military birthday parade on Saturday (saying they would be met with "very big force"). And his Cabinet officials are talking about people exercising their 1A rights as militant combatants engaged in an insurrection or siege.

Four days earlier, Trump told Los Angeles demonstrators they would be “hit harder than ever” if they kept marching against his immigration crackdown.

This is not the first example of President Trump embracing authoritarian politics. Last September, at a Pennsylvania rally, he said shoplifters should be shot on sight, an extreme "law and order" politics that encourages the state to deprive someone of their life for stealing toothpaste. And, according to former Defense Secretary Mark Esper, Trump privately asked advisers whether soldiers could “shoot protesters in the legs” during the 2020 demonstrations surrounding the murder of George Floyd. And remember he has also called for law enforcement to "crack their skulls" of protesters.

Together, these threats erode the norm that political disagreement is settled with words, not weapons.

While it is not a direct means of resistance, public opinion is one of the few immediate and obvious checks on authoritarianism. The numbers in these polls are not just abstract data points; they are signals to elected officials, the media, and the public about the boundaries of acceptable government action. When approval for the president’s handling of immigration and protest response drops, it sends a message that Americans are watching, and that there are political costs to overreach.

But public opinion is only as powerful as the willingness of leaders to heed it. As the situation in Los Angeles continues to unfold, and as more Americans tune in, the pressure on those in power will only grow. Whether that leads to meaningful change remains to be seen.

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If you have thoughts, questions, or additional polling data to share, please reply to this email or leave a comment.

Thank you for reading and for caring about the numbers.

And don’t forget to send in your Q&A question!

Elliott

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Not a paying subscriber?

Then you missed these extra articles published this week:

• Democrats won more special elections last night

• Why the LA protests might be bad for Trump

• The economic vibes are very bad for Republicans

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