Announcing the Strength In Numbers/Verasight U.S. politics poll

The collaboration will field high-quality polls on key and timely topics, use advanced statistical techniques for data analysis, and give subscribers a chance to ask their own questions

Dear readers,

I have an exciting announcement to share today. Starting this month, Strength In Numbers is partnering with Verasight, a high-quality mixed-mode online/mail/SMS pollster, to conduct a monthly public opinion survey on U.S. politics. The poll will be conducted by Verasight (they will make methodological decisions such as on sampling, field period, and weighting), with analysis produced by and published exclusively here at Strength In Numbers. Our first poll will be released tomorrow, May 14, 2025, with toplines and reporting shared on the Strength In Numbers website. Crosstabs are being held for future release.

We think this is going to be a very cool and insight-generating partnership, so please share widely — and read on to learn about the project and how to submit a question we may include in future polls.

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We have three main goals with this project. First, by using an in-depth questionnaire written by independent public opinion journalists and polling academics, we aim to ask questions that better capture what the public really thinks than the typical surface-level, horse-race polls. The poll will devote questions first and foremost to a detailed analysis of voter priorities and opinions on the issues that matter most to them. Our first poll will cover economics, immigration, and government spending — the top three issues of Donald Trump’s presidency so far.

Second, with the monthly cadence, we hope to increase the frequency at which high-quality estimates of questions of broad interest (Trump approval, generic congressional ballot, right track/wrong track, party issue trust, etc) are released to the public. These are questions that have the power to shape actions by political leaders in Washington, so we want to update trends often to ensure the public’s voice is heard.

Additionally, one unfortunate consequence of the democratization of public opinion research has been a proliferation of low-cost, poorly done polls — mostly using quota-controlled surveys on cheap online marketplaces, or robocallers on landlines — that can pollute polling averages and wield undue influence on our collective understanding of the body politic. More high-quality data will generate higher-quality estimates of aggregate public opinion. We will use question space strategically to add signal to the noise of polling averages, and welcome reader suggestions on under-covered races and under-asked questions.

Third, we will use statistical modeling and advanced survey analysis to help us provide readers with both a better understanding of opinion and an estimate of how confident they can be about our findings. The Strength In Numbers/Verasight poll team leans into the transparency of its estimates, and we will publish detailed analysis and clear graphics about the uncertainty of our data and its sensitivity to certain methodological decisions, such as weighting targets.

Where possible, we plan to make public the results of high-tech tests for things such as partisan nonresponse and other sources of polling error. The Verasight team comes from an academic background and is not interested in selling false precision to an audience hungry for a particular number or political angle. Here at Strength In Numbers, I have said our job is to measure and report, honestly and independently, not to engage in issue advocacy and partisan cheerleading. (The only “issue” Strength In Numbers really advocates for, apart from using polls in the democratic process, is electoral reform.)

With these three goals, we aim to provide high-impact and sophisticated reporting on U.S. public opinion, painting a portrait of the public that is not available from any other pollster or media outlet.

I am personally excited for this collaboration for a few reasons. First, it’s an exciting achievement for independent political journalism. As far as I can tell, this will be the first Substack engaged in a long-term partnership with a pollster to surface original insights about public opinion. That we were able to pull this off here at Strength In Numbers speaks to this community’s devotion to gauging and highlighting the will of the people — to each other, for the public good, and to the political activists, media commentators, and government leaders that receive this newsletter.

Second, I’m excited because I genuinely believe in the power that public opinion polling — to anchor our understanding of the public to something (quasi) objective, to hold despots accountable, and to help us see beyond the opinions of our neighbors and digital bubbles — wields in democracy.

For a long time here at Strength In Numbers, I have devoted these pages to covering other people’s polls and discussing what they mean for our politics, and especially how people can get more of what they need and want from their government. Now, thanks to Verasight, this community will have the chance to conduct our own surveys, on our terms, with the questions we think matter most to people. No news agenda or ideological crusades will pollute our polling. We’re just using good data for good journalism.

Third, the poll offers an exciting opportunity for readers to get directly involved in the process of polling. We plan to ask a representative sample of U.S. adults 20 questions per month, with each question written by the Verasight team and me.

As part of the poll-drafting process, I will choose at least one question submitted by a subscriber to Strength In Numbers to be included in each month’s poll. And no, this is not engagement bait; Our theory is that the subscribers to this Substack are informed enough to likely have a good idea of what we should be asking. You all are voracious poll-readers and news consumers, and so hopefully have a good idea of (a) what matters to you and (b) what other pollsters aren’t asking.

Subscribers to Strength and Numbers can submit their questions using this form. You must be a subscriber to this newsletter and include the email you signed up with. Please only submit one or two questions per month. In order to keep things fair, I will be deleting entries from users who submit an excessive number of questions per poll. (If you double-submit to fix a typo or something, that’s fine.)

We also hope that by engaging people actively in the process of conducting a poll, and showing readers transparently how we are writing questions, fielding surveys, weighting results and writing reports, we may be able to increase public trust in polling in general.

And finally, I’m excited about the partnership because I also happen to think Verasight is a good company run by some very smart people. If Strength In Numbers was going to do a poll with anyone, it was going to be a company like Verasight: academic, non-partisan, high-quality, and one that experiments with new methodologies to stay ahead of the societal and technological trends threatening polling. And I’m not just saying that: Their record of high-quality data and accuracy pre-dates our partnership.

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I’m really excited to embark on this partnership with Verasight — to take the content offering here at Strength In Numbers to the next level, and most importantly, to bring readers an original month-by-month look at the sentiments of the American electorate. The partnership solves one of the biggest problems I have when writing about politics: Often, no one else has asked the questions I need for coverage!

By having my own original survey data here at Strength In Numbers, I’ll have the opportunity to move beyond aggregation and reporting on other polls. I’ll be able to both cover public opinion with original and important questions, and show readers exactly how polls work at each step of the process. Our advanced microdata analysis is something not available at any other indie publication covering U.S. politics.

With good data and smart analysis, we’ll be pushing forward the public mission of Strength In Numbers even more, informing the populace and holding our leaders accountable to public opinion.

Elliott