Are state polls underestimating Joe Biden?
National polls have recently swung toward the president, but state polls haven't. Which have been better historically?
It’s starting to be that time again when I receive an endless stream of emails and Twitter DMs from people who refresh our election models every minute and ask what happened whenever anything changes—anything at all.
It can be a bit overwhelming, but one positive of all the messages is that I get a lot of really good questions about the election.
One of the most common questions I’ve been getting is about the emerging divide between state and national polls. You can see the dynamic most clearly in the following chart from The Economist’s election model. The points show national polls, while the trend line is the projected share of the vote in national polls.
If you squint, it looks like the trend since October should be at about one point higher than it is. Perhaps something like this:
