This is great news, and I’m not trying to be negative, but I have long wondered if the 2024 result was due in part to the reluctance of some Americans to elect a woman or woman of color as president. I know that would be very hard to determine, but is it worth noting that in this gigantic swing, the dynamic switched, I.e., the republican candidate was female and the democrat was male? I’m not arguing that this means only white men should run for office. Just wondering if gender does affect turnout or etc.? And wondering if anyone has done any research in this area re the 2024 result?
Fwiw, I don't doubt that this reluctance was a factor, but there were other big ones, e.g., Biden's decision to run again, his blowing that debate, and the very short campaign time between the Dem convention and the election. What often gets ignored is how close the popular vote was given all of the above. Trump II didn't have a "mandate" for anything that's happened in the last year, and it hasn't come close to fulfilling its promises about the economy.
It's also worth noting that this particular female candidate, Leigh Wambsganss, was a far-righty. The word "extremist" comes to mind. Here in blue Massachusetts, I will usually vote for the female candidate (or the person of color candidate) other things being equal, but "other things being equal" is key. No way in hell would I ever vote for a Leigh Wambsganss.
country dog, i will take every bit of positive news I can get. i am pretty old now but i still do not believe that the majority of our citizens are monsters...even though they elected a guy who so clearly is one. resist.
Seeing 2026 as an opportunity for Dems to over perform in state legislative races can maybe help undo some of the damage from 2010. I thought he might win, but then numbers went even higher after the early vote came in which is not what I expected.
Can you please do an analysis of swings from 2024 by ethnicity by focusing on precincts that are predominantly Hispanic or Asian or Indian etc? Thank you.
Thank you SO much for looking not only nationally, but at grassroots movement for us. The only way back is from the bottom up, and your coverage of this helps!!! When people see this kind of movement here in TX it gives energy. And make no mistake, your data contributes to the wins we will see.
Internal polling for the right-wing populists must be generating red flags by the score. Turns out most Americans are seriously repulsed by illiberal ICE depredations. Thus, Trump's performative conspiracy antics in GA re elections are, in my estimation, indications, an index their of panic and desperation. There's nothing there to be uncovered
"Free and fair" v. 'sleeved aces' [ or worse, much worse]. Everyone needs to prepare.
This is great news, and I’m not trying to be negative, but I have long wondered if the 2024 result was due in part to the reluctance of some Americans to elect a woman or woman of color as president. I know that would be very hard to determine, but is it worth noting that in this gigantic swing, the dynamic switched, I.e., the republican candidate was female and the democrat was male? I’m not arguing that this means only white men should run for office. Just wondering if gender does affect turnout or etc.? And wondering if anyone has done any research in this area re the 2024 result?
100% potential voters stayed away from voting for a] woman b ] of color. My statistical support is not that of GEM, but from life experience.
Fwiw, I don't doubt that this reluctance was a factor, but there were other big ones, e.g., Biden's decision to run again, his blowing that debate, and the very short campaign time between the Dem convention and the election. What often gets ignored is how close the popular vote was given all of the above. Trump II didn't have a "mandate" for anything that's happened in the last year, and it hasn't come close to fulfilling its promises about the economy.
It's also worth noting that this particular female candidate, Leigh Wambsganss, was a far-righty. The word "extremist" comes to mind. Here in blue Massachusetts, I will usually vote for the female candidate (or the person of color candidate) other things being equal, but "other things being equal" is key. No way in hell would I ever vote for a Leigh Wambsganss.
Thank you!
country dog, i will take every bit of positive news I can get. i am pretty old now but i still do not believe that the majority of our citizens are monsters...even though they elected a guy who so clearly is one. resist.
Seeing 2026 as an opportunity for Dems to over perform in state legislative races can maybe help undo some of the damage from 2010. I thought he might win, but then numbers went even higher after the early vote came in which is not what I expected.
Can you please do an analysis of swings from 2024 by ethnicity by focusing on precincts that are predominantly Hispanic or Asian or Indian etc? Thank you.
Thank you SO much for looking not only nationally, but at grassroots movement for us. The only way back is from the bottom up, and your coverage of this helps!!! When people see this kind of movement here in TX it gives energy. And make no mistake, your data contributes to the wins we will see.
Thanks for the analysis and drilldown. Contingently encouraging. Concerning the prospects of a free and fair midterm general election (aka the big pot where sleeved aces get played), you may find my own statistical forensics work of interest: https://www.amazon.com/CODE-RED-Computerized-Elections-Democracy/dp/B087H83JCR/ref covers post-HAVA elections through 2018; https://codered2014.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/TheRealSteal-IntroAnalysisCombinedUpdated-js8_WWW-2.pdf covers E2020.
Internal polling for the right-wing populists must be generating red flags by the score. Turns out most Americans are seriously repulsed by illiberal ICE depredations. Thus, Trump's performative conspiracy antics in GA re elections are, in my estimation, indications, an index their of panic and desperation. There's nothing there to be uncovered
Trumpism has peaked.
Yes it will make an ugly exit, but going it is.
I hope you're right. This little foray into a particular race is at least a little encouraging. Thanks.
Also encouraging is that, according to Taniel's post on BlueSky, Wambsganss spent $2.2 million more than Rehmet. https://bsky.app/profile/taniel.bsky.social/post/3mdrn77isx22d