Are Republicans Beginning to Pay the Price for Their Support of Trump?
Takeaways:
•Results from the Texas State Senate District 9 race, Democrat Taylor Rehmet carried the district by 17 points. That’s a 14.4-point margin, and a 31.4-point swing vs Harris’s margin in 2024 (if you ignore votes for minor-party candidates, the swing rounds up to D+32).
•That’s the latest in an eight race sweep by Democrats in four states.
•You can find the full report from G. Elliott Morris’s Strength in Numbers here:
1] I have previously characterized this trend using Churchill’s analysis: This is not the Beginning of the End, but it is the End of the Beginning.
2] I have also written previously of the self-destructive tendency of political parties to overreach when they suddenly find themselves in a single party government. That includes both Democrats and Republicans.
3] When I was invited to join the Board of Mainstream Republicans of WA, I voiced my concerned perspective of the future. At that time, I believed the Republican Party would soon go the way of the Federalists and Whigs in becoming extinct.
4] At that time, I had no idea how gruesomely they would pursue this outcome.
5] If this trend continues, as I believe it will, Republicans will have no one to blame but themselves.
6] Given the fact that such extraordinary insight is rare, I doubt we will ever admit it.
In this environment, if electoral shenanigans prevent a blue wave from yielding an actual Democratic House majority in 2026, I would expect a level of unrest that makes 2020 look like a Quaker meeting.
It wasn’t JUST a 32-point swing in a deep red district, what was more noteworthy was that Rehmet ran on an unabashed, unapologetic campaign of progressive values—for living, union wages, for affordable and rent-stabilized housing, for strong public schools, and for independent redistricting to redress gerrymandering to secure racial justice and equality.
His opponent was a hardcore MAGA looking to gut school boards; Tr*mp even Tweeted TWICE to prod voters—quite a lift for such a narcissist.
Trump tweeted his personal support twice and yet this progressive Dem who was outspent by $2M won overwhelmingly IN A RED TEXAS DISTRICT! I’d say that is strongly indicative of a switch in public opinion as to Trump’s support!
Can you separate out no-shows from switched votes? A de-energized R is a win for Dems. But, changing voter preference is the important trend indicator.
I know it's a point of reference, but given how much the political landscape has changed since 2024, is it still relevant to judge election performance based on Harris's 2024 numbers? Also, I have the impression that changing out Rs for Ds at the local level is harder than at the national level. But does polling bear that out? Are voters more likely to stick with their local pols more than national figures? If so, this switch in what could only be considered a deep red safe seat is even more impressive for the Dems - and frightening for the Rs.
Thank you for the analysis and charts. Seeing the results posted by The Down Ballot last night gives me hope. Democrats still must do the work. This candidate is a Union member and spoke to the economic issues. The Republican candidate thought she could win on culture war propaganda, which has worked so well for Republicans in the past.
On an added note, for people worried about whether the next election will be free and fair, support the work of Marc Elias at Democracy Docket. They fight for voting rights and against Republican efforts to limit voting. Democracy Docket also has free content on You Tube that addresses all these issues.
Trump is not on the ballot in 2026. I think this works in the Dems favor since MAGA has no reason to vote unless it’s to save the dictators butt one more time.
This is great news, and I’m not trying to be negative, but I have long wondered if the 2024 result was due in part to the reluctance of some Americans to elect a woman or woman of color as president. I know that would be very hard to determine, but is it worth noting that in this gigantic swing, the dynamic switched, I.e., the republican candidate was female and the democrat was male? I’m not arguing that this means only white men should run for office. Just wondering if gender does affect turnout or etc.? And wondering if anyone has done any research in this area re the 2024 result?
Fwiw, I don't doubt that this reluctance was a factor, but there were other big ones, e.g., Biden's decision to run again, his blowing that debate, and the very short campaign time between the Dem convention and the election. What often gets ignored is how close the popular vote was given all of the above. Trump II didn't have a "mandate" for anything that's happened in the last year, and it hasn't come close to fulfilling its promises about the economy.
It's also worth noting that this particular female candidate, Leigh Wambsganss, was a far-righty. The word "extremist" comes to mind. Here in blue Massachusetts, I will usually vote for the female candidate (or the person of color candidate) other things being equal, but "other things being equal" is key. No way in hell would I ever vote for a Leigh Wambsganss.
country dog, i will take every bit of positive news I can get. i am pretty old now but i still do not believe that the majority of our citizens are monsters...even though they elected a guy who so clearly is one. resist.
I don't believe that the majority of U.S. citizens are monsters either -- but I also don't believe that being racist or sexist alone makes a person a monster. "Monsters" are by definition unusual. Racism and sexism are all too common, and even those of us who put serious effort into rooting them out of our heads are affected.
As to why Trump got elected twice, and why millions of people voted for him three times -- well, I'm sure not ruling racism and sexism out. At the same time, since the end of the Fairness Doctrine and especially since Citizens United, being a really informed voter takes serious effort and the ability to separate hype from substance. What are people voting for? What do they *think* they're voting for? How much do they know about what a president does? Damned if I know!
Excellent point! Ronnie killed the fairness doctrine and suddenly Rush and other cranks were screaming lies and conspiracies on the AM radio and never got checked by any regulatory agency. It is a if they planted seeds of meanness and stupidity in the minds of many citizens while they slept and like a slow version of the pod effect in "Invasion of the Body Snatchers" our friends and neighbors became unrecognizable and traded in their pensions and health care and empathy for handful or radioactive beans.
Seeing 2026 as an opportunity for Dems to over perform in state legislative races can maybe help undo some of the damage from 2010. I thought he might win, but then numbers went even higher after the early vote came in which is not what I expected.
Can you please do an analysis of swings from 2024 by ethnicity by focusing on precincts that are predominantly Hispanic or Asian or Indian etc? Thank you.
Thank you SO much for looking not only nationally, but at grassroots movement for us. The only way back is from the bottom up, and your coverage of this helps!!! When people see this kind of movement here in TX it gives energy. And make no mistake, your data contributes to the wins we will see.
Internal polling for the right-wing populists must be generating red flags by the score. Turns out most Americans are seriously repulsed by illiberal ICE depredations. Thus, Trump's performative conspiracy antics in GA re elections are, in my estimation, indications, an index of their panic and desperation. There's nothing there to be uncovered
Posted this commentary this morning:
And the Beat Goes On … - - - ,,,
Are Republicans Beginning to Pay the Price for Their Support of Trump?
Takeaways:
•Results from the Texas State Senate District 9 race, Democrat Taylor Rehmet carried the district by 17 points. That’s a 14.4-point margin, and a 31.4-point swing vs Harris’s margin in 2024 (if you ignore votes for minor-party candidates, the swing rounds up to D+32).
•That’s the latest in an eight race sweep by Democrats in four states.
•You can find the full report from G. Elliott Morris’s Strength in Numbers here:
https://www.gelliottmorris.com/p/blue-wave-watch-democrat-flips-trump?utm_campaign=email-half-post&r=5oudt&utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email
Personal Observations:
1] I have previously characterized this trend using Churchill’s analysis: This is not the Beginning of the End, but it is the End of the Beginning.
2] I have also written previously of the self-destructive tendency of political parties to overreach when they suddenly find themselves in a single party government. That includes both Democrats and Republicans.
3] When I was invited to join the Board of Mainstream Republicans of WA, I voiced my concerned perspective of the future. At that time, I believed the Republican Party would soon go the way of the Federalists and Whigs in becoming extinct.
4] At that time, I had no idea how gruesomely they would pursue this outcome.
5] If this trend continues, as I believe it will, Republicans will have no one to blame but themselves.
6] Given the fact that such extraordinary insight is rare, I doubt we will ever admit it.
7] And the Beat Goes On … - - - …
In this environment, if electoral shenanigans prevent a blue wave from yielding an actual Democratic House majority in 2026, I would expect a level of unrest that makes 2020 look like a Quaker meeting.
It wasn’t JUST a 32-point swing in a deep red district, what was more noteworthy was that Rehmet ran on an unabashed, unapologetic campaign of progressive values—for living, union wages, for affordable and rent-stabilized housing, for strong public schools, and for independent redistricting to redress gerrymandering to secure racial justice and equality.
His opponent was a hardcore MAGA looking to gut school boards; Tr*mp even Tweeted TWICE to prod voters—quite a lift for such a narcissist.
Trump tweeted his personal support twice and yet this progressive Dem who was outspent by $2M won overwhelmingly IN A RED TEXAS DISTRICT! I’d say that is strongly indicative of a switch in public opinion as to Trump’s support!
"...when there’s a chart to be made, I really just can’t help myself."
He never works who loves his job! Enjoy.
Can you separate out no-shows from switched votes? A de-energized R is a win for Dems. But, changing voter preference is the important trend indicator.
I know it's a point of reference, but given how much the political landscape has changed since 2024, is it still relevant to judge election performance based on Harris's 2024 numbers? Also, I have the impression that changing out Rs for Ds at the local level is harder than at the national level. But does polling bear that out? Are voters more likely to stick with their local pols more than national figures? If so, this switch in what could only be considered a deep red safe seat is even more impressive for the Dems - and frightening for the Rs.
Thank you for the analysis and charts. Seeing the results posted by The Down Ballot last night gives me hope. Democrats still must do the work. This candidate is a Union member and spoke to the economic issues. The Republican candidate thought she could win on culture war propaganda, which has worked so well for Republicans in the past.
On an added note, for people worried about whether the next election will be free and fair, support the work of Marc Elias at Democracy Docket. They fight for voting rights and against Republican efforts to limit voting. Democracy Docket also has free content on You Tube that addresses all these issues.
Trump is not on the ballot in 2026. I think this works in the Dems favor since MAGA has no reason to vote unless it’s to save the dictators butt one more time.
"Free and fair" v. 'sleeved aces' [ or worse, much worse]. Everyone needs to prepare.
This is great news, and I’m not trying to be negative, but I have long wondered if the 2024 result was due in part to the reluctance of some Americans to elect a woman or woman of color as president. I know that would be very hard to determine, but is it worth noting that in this gigantic swing, the dynamic switched, I.e., the republican candidate was female and the democrat was male? I’m not arguing that this means only white men should run for office. Just wondering if gender does affect turnout or etc.? And wondering if anyone has done any research in this area re the 2024 result?
100% potential voters stayed away from voting for a] woman b ] of color. My statistical support is not that of GEM, but from life experience.
Fwiw, I don't doubt that this reluctance was a factor, but there were other big ones, e.g., Biden's decision to run again, his blowing that debate, and the very short campaign time between the Dem convention and the election. What often gets ignored is how close the popular vote was given all of the above. Trump II didn't have a "mandate" for anything that's happened in the last year, and it hasn't come close to fulfilling its promises about the economy.
It's also worth noting that this particular female candidate, Leigh Wambsganss, was a far-righty. The word "extremist" comes to mind. Here in blue Massachusetts, I will usually vote for the female candidate (or the person of color candidate) other things being equal, but "other things being equal" is key. No way in hell would I ever vote for a Leigh Wambsganss.
Thank you!
country dog, i will take every bit of positive news I can get. i am pretty old now but i still do not believe that the majority of our citizens are monsters...even though they elected a guy who so clearly is one. resist.
I don't believe that the majority of U.S. citizens are monsters either -- but I also don't believe that being racist or sexist alone makes a person a monster. "Monsters" are by definition unusual. Racism and sexism are all too common, and even those of us who put serious effort into rooting them out of our heads are affected.
As to why Trump got elected twice, and why millions of people voted for him three times -- well, I'm sure not ruling racism and sexism out. At the same time, since the end of the Fairness Doctrine and especially since Citizens United, being a really informed voter takes serious effort and the ability to separate hype from substance. What are people voting for? What do they *think* they're voting for? How much do they know about what a president does? Damned if I know!
Excellent point! Ronnie killed the fairness doctrine and suddenly Rush and other cranks were screaming lies and conspiracies on the AM radio and never got checked by any regulatory agency. It is a if they planted seeds of meanness and stupidity in the minds of many citizens while they slept and like a slow version of the pod effect in "Invasion of the Body Snatchers" our friends and neighbors became unrecognizable and traded in their pensions and health care and empathy for handful or radioactive beans.
Seeing 2026 as an opportunity for Dems to over perform in state legislative races can maybe help undo some of the damage from 2010. I thought he might win, but then numbers went even higher after the early vote came in which is not what I expected.
Can you please do an analysis of swings from 2024 by ethnicity by focusing on precincts that are predominantly Hispanic or Asian or Indian etc? Thank you.
Thank you SO much for looking not only nationally, but at grassroots movement for us. The only way back is from the bottom up, and your coverage of this helps!!! When people see this kind of movement here in TX it gives energy. And make no mistake, your data contributes to the wins we will see.
Thanks for the analysis and drilldown. Contingently encouraging. Concerning the prospects of a free and fair midterm general election (aka the big pot where sleeved aces get played), you may find my own statistical forensics work of interest: https://www.amazon.com/CODE-RED-Computerized-Elections-Democracy/dp/B087H83JCR/ref covers post-HAVA elections through 2018; https://codered2014.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/TheRealSteal-IntroAnalysisCombinedUpdated-js8_WWW-2.pdf covers E2020.
Internal polling for the right-wing populists must be generating red flags by the score. Turns out most Americans are seriously repulsed by illiberal ICE depredations. Thus, Trump's performative conspiracy antics in GA re elections are, in my estimation, indications, an index of their panic and desperation. There's nothing there to be uncovered
Trumpism has peaked.
Yes it will make an ugly exit, but going it is.