Brief thoughts about The Election Forecast Wars

What can we learn when models (and modelers) disagree?

Friends,

David Byler, a data analyst and opinion writer at the Washington Post, published a new column today about “The election forecast wars” that I have thoughts about. Let me also say up top that I think David is a good commentator and an astute election forecaster, and my thoughts are less about him and more about extracting signals from the noise of intellectual disagreements.

My biggest objection to the piece is the headline: “The election forecast wars are here. Here’s how to navigate them.” I think this is an obnoxious way to make the otherwise intellectual (well, typically intellectual, but not always) disagreements that Nate Silver and I have been having publicly into some sexy tabloid-esque story that is focused on conflict, not on learning. It’s also a bit annoying that piece also doesn’t really tell me how to navigate election forecasts or the wars, but rather presents three “rules” that are helpful when reading forecasts. Those rules are helpful, but I feel misled! I’m s…