Chart of the week: Trump is losing voters on the economy

Inflation got Donald Trump elected in 2024. Now, his ratings on economic issues are at their lowest point ever, even worse than during COVID-19

The numbers on the economy are basically unanimous and relatively straightforward: President Donald Trump is facing severe backlash as economic indicators and polling data turn against him. They now suggest his strongest political asset may be vanishing.

First, take the forecasts: The Atlanta and New York Federal Reserve banks are now forecasting negligible or negative growth in real Gross Domestic Product for the first quarter of 2025, for example. And on Thursday, the Philadelphia Fed reported their survey of manufacturers yielded the worst economic outlook (in terms of forward-looking expected business activity) since 2020 — rivaling the poor numbers from the 2008 financial crisis.

All this is happening mostly before the fallout from the president’s “Liberation Day” tariffs kicked in, so imagine what the numbers next month/quarter are going to show if the administration doesn’t change course.

And on top of this, stocks are bouncing off a one-year low and the bond market is showing collapsing global support for the U.S. government. Trump this week has expressed his desire to fire Fed chair Jerome Powell, who Trump himself nominated during his first term, which would end the political independence of the body and further degrade trust in America.

Other statistics on activity are also sour. My index of economic growth — published at Strength In Numbers for the first time this week! — suggests the U.S. economy is growing at a rate 0.2 standard deviations worse than average on an annual basis. That’s akin to yearly economic growth in just the 1-2% range (well below the expected 2-3%). Again that’s mostly before the effects of recent policy mishaps impact the official statistics.

This all raises two big question: First, has the average American noticed what's going on? And how do they feel about it?

Given that Trump's advantage on economic issues is a big reason why he won the White House in 2024, sentiment on the subject is worth tracking. And currently, things are quickly deteriorating for Trump. It is unlikely he would win the 2024 election if it were held again today.

Polls signal an erosion of support for Trump

Recent polling data reveals a significant shift in the public's perceptions of Trump's economic credentials. Consumers have taken note of the dismal official forecasts and stock market performance, previewed above. The University of Michigan's survey of consumers in March, for instance, yielded a crowd forecast of 5-year inflation that was higher even than its readings in 2022 — and that pessimism applies now for Republicans, as well.

The percentage of U.S. adults who say the economy is their number one concern has also increased since Trump took office, according to polling from YouGov and The Economist. And their survey this week shows 52% of Americans say the U.S. economy is "getting worse," up 5 points from 47% before Trump announced (and later rescinded) his "Liberation Day" tariffs. At the start of his second term, just 37% said the economy was getting worse.

This all represents a notable decline from the strong numbers that helped propel Trump to victory in 2024. Then voters consistently rated him better able to handle the economy than his opponents (economists disagreed). But now, he is significantly lagging voters' expectations.

Take YouGov's polling as the chief example. Since YouGov has been doing interviews about the president since before Trump's first term, we can get an apples-to-apples look at voters' views of Trump now and during his first term. The picture is not pretty: Trump has never been this unpopular on the question "Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling these specific issues? [Jobs and the economy / the economy]?"

Today, Trump's average net economic (dis)approval in YouGov's polls over the last month is -6, meaning 6 percentage points more American adults disapprove of the way he is handling the economy than approve of how he's handling it (a rough difference of about 16 million adults). That is worse than at any point during his first term: Even during the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, Trump's monthly-average net economic approval in YouGov's polls was net positive at +3.

And to be sure, this isn't just a YouGov-specific finding. Pollster Adam Carlson calculated Trump's average approval on the economy in polls conducted in the last 10 days and found the president at -8 at the time this article was published. The president's ratings on tariffs/trade and inflation were even worse, at -15 and -18, respectively.

And some reliable polls find Trump doing even worse — approaching -30 for cost of living and inflation. I mean just look at that! This guy is posting Biden 2022-level numbers on the cost of living! He is not doing well! The cracks are even beginning to spill over to his approval on immigration policy. (Note this article from earlier in the week at Strength In Numbers: "Trump's immigration agenda is not popular")

You can't fix a bad second term

Trump's poor economic numbers could have profound implications for his party's political future. Historically, the party in control of the White House loses in the midterms, and bad numbers exacerbate the pain. In addition, economic performance has been a critical factor in presidential election outcomes. Trump's poor marks now underscore to voters that he may not have been worthy of the trust they put into him in 2024, jeopardizing his party's standing and electoral prospects.

There's also, of course, Trump's tariff policies, which have both been a cornerstone of his economic agenda and a complete blunder. Not only have they harmed stocks in the short term, they have also hurt the status of U.S. bonds as the world's safe-harbor currency, which will decrease long-term investment in America. In the medium term, skyrocketing policy uncertainty has put pressure on business owners and disincentivizes investment in things like small businesses and factories, which the president claims to be trying to bring back. (Meanwhile, how are the people close to Trump faring in their options plays?).

The pain and uncertainty are so bad that, if Trump does not change course, a recession now appears likely to probable. J.P. Morgan puts the probability of a recession above 60%.

And here’s another observation… After November 2024, some of us said Trump mostly won because economic conditions, especially inflation, favored a change in leadership. I mean, just look at the graveyard of incumbents across the world last year. This suggested at the time that Trump would likely suffer a similar fate if he couldn’t fix the deeper economic problems in America: Namely, high prices for housing and higher education, low economic and social mobility, and inflation in groceries, gas, and other everyday goods.

What we’re seeing now, at least partly, is the inevitable result of Republicans becoming the incumbent party in America, and thus being the party on the receiving end of all that underlying grift. That, and all the Trump-specific stuff that is exacerbating the situation. These twin factors are likely to lead a rout for the GOP in 2026, and maybe 2028, too.

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In summary, while Trump rode to victory in 2024 on the strength of his economic record, the current trajectory is very challenging. The potential for a recession, exacerbated by his tariff and monetary policies, could become an enduring black mark on Trump’s presidency, affecting not only his approval rating and broader political landscape now but also his permanent legacy. At best, Trump has fundamentally harmed global trust in the United States. At worst, we are heading for a crisis.

Either way, polls show voters have taken note. They will want to see heads roll.