Democrats are winning special elections like it's 2018

But does this reflect a change in voter preferences, or a change in who is voting?

The 2026 midterm election cycle is starting off similar to 2018, with signs of mass mobilization and electoral overperformance strongly favoring the Democrats. Republican Congresspeople, for example, have faced so much resistance at town hall meetings of their constituents that many of them have skipped appearances, and Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders and Democratic Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez have been drawing crowds of 30,000+ on their “Fighting Oligarchy” rally tour of America.

Then, there is the news from last night: A Democratic candidate won the special election in Pennsylvania’s 36th State Senate District, a seat where residents voted for Donald Trump over Kamala Harris by 15 points in 2024. And it’s not like PA SD-36 just recently moved right; in 2020, it voted for Trump over Biden by 17 points. It’s a red, red seat. And now, it’s a red, red seat represented by a Democrat.

At this point, you may be forgiven for feeling some déjà vu. This all feels eerily similar to the…