Democrats have a large turnout advantage in non-presidential elections

There are two different electorates in America. Who wins is largely a function of which one shows up.

In March, I wrote about how Democrats are doing as well or better in special elections this cycle as they did in 2018.

In that article, I proposed that what we are seeing now is two separate electorates driving election results in America. One electorate is less politically engaged, showing up in high-turnout races to deliver results that are friendlier…