Democrats have a large turnout advantage in non-presidential elections

There are two different electorates in America. Who wins is largely a function of which one shows up.

In March, I wrote about how Democrats are doing as well or better in special elections this cycle as they did in 2018.

In that article, I proposed that what we are seeing now is two separate electorates driving election results in America. One electorate is less politically engaged, showing up in high-turnout races to deliver results that are friendlier to Donald Trump and MAGA Republicans. The other electorate is highly educated and engaged, showing up when overall turnout is weaker, and is much friendlier to Democrats.

This article revisits the subject using newer and deeper data on partisan voting habits from last month’s Wisconsin Supreme Court race. I also go more into the implications this could have for U.S. politics going forward.

Calculating the effects of turnout

In my March article, I estimated Democratic overperformance in congressional and state legislative specials this year suggests a national environment around D+8 or D+9 for the 2026 midterms, if past patterns in special…