Democrats lead in House generic ballot polls by 2.3 points

How our new generic ballot average works, and what a 2-3 point Dem. win would look like in Congress

Today, Strength In Numbers is launching our long-awaited average of congressional generic ballot polls! The initial results show a national electoral environment leaning slightly toward the Democrats, a small but significant shift to the left since the 2024 election.

If the 2026 midterm elections were held today (and polls were exactly correct), our average finds 45.3% of voters would cast ballots for Democratic candidates for the U.S. House of Representatives, while 43% would vote for Republicans. That makes for a +2.3-point margin for the Democratic Party, a lead that is outside the margin of error of our average.