Democrats lead the U.S. House generic ballot by 8; voters back fair maps and oppose Trump's tariffs
Results from the August Strength In Numbers/Verasight poll
This article reports results from the August Strength In Numbers/Verasight poll. You can read our previous poll releases here.
Summary of main poll findings:
Trump job approval: 41% approve / 56% disapprove (net -15). Presidential approval tested across several policy areas — including crime, an addition since our July survey — reveals negative net ratings for all issues except border security.
U.S. House generic ballot: Democratic 49% / Republican 41% among U.S. adults.
Right vs. wrong track: 33% say the U.S. is on the right track; 57% say wrong track.
Immigration: In a forced-choice question testing support for a pathway to legal status versus deporting most unauthorized immigrants living in the U.S., 60% of adults choose a legal pathway. Voters oppose deporting migrants living here for 10 or more years.
Democracy & maps: 45% say gerrymandering is a big problem; 56% support a national requirement for independent redistricting commissions; 53% would still back fair maps even if their party loses seats; 46% support proportional allocation of House seats by partisan vote totals statewide (27% oppose).
Economy & tariffs: a plurality of 34% say their personal finances are worse than this point in the last year. 26% say Trump’s policies have made the economy better, 50% worse. On the president's tariffs, 36% support / 56% oppose (including 39% strongly); 33% prefer protecting jobs even if prices rise vs 54% who say higher prices aren’t worth it.
This poll contains results for several new topics (gerrymandering, tariffs, amnesty for immigrants) that were suggested by Strength In Numbers subscribers. Our poll is the first collaborative survey partnership between a media brand and its audience, and submissions are encouraged. You can send a question or topic for next month's poll using this form, or via email to polling[AT]gelliottmorris.com. You do not have to pay to submit a topic, but you do have to add your email to access the form.
Methodology note: Verasight conducted this poll among 1,500 U.S. adult residents from August 18-21, 2025. It has a margin of error of 2.6%. The survey was weighted to match the political and demographic characteristics of the U.S. adult population according to the July 2025 Current Population Survey, as well as recent benchmarks for partisanship and past vote from official election results and the Pew Research Center NPORS benchmarking survey.
Verasight uses mail, SMS text, and the internet to recruit a sample using hybrid sampling (both probability-based and non-probability techniques). To ensure independence of the research and editorial processes, Verasight handled recruitment, interviewing, and weighting the survey. Strength In Numbers conducts all analysis and editorial processes. SIN had input on questions, but did not participate in other methodological decisions.
You can download a PDF of the poll results and a full methodology statement at the bottom of this page.
Democrats have an eight-point edge on the House generic ballot
If the 2026 midterms were held today, 49% say they would back the Democratic candidate in their local House district, 41% the Republican candidate, and 10% remain undecided or say they aren't sure. Among decided voters, that's an eight-point Democratic lead.
The 49% figure for Democrats is the largest we've recorded for the party so far, but these margins are statistically indistinguishable from our prior polls (D+6 in May, D+8 in June, D+4 in July). Month‑to‑month differences have been within the margin of error, so while the point estimate has bounced, the underlying picture is of a stable, modest Democratic advantage.
Most Americans say the country is off on the wrong track
The public's mood toward the country overall remains profoundly pessimistic. Just 33% think the country is on the right track; 57% say it's on the wrong track. One of the longest-running questions in U.S. polling history, the right track/wrong track number is rarely positive.
These numbers are not a significant shift relative to our July poll.
Trump’s approval is underwater overall and on most issues
In our July poll, 42% of Americans said they approved of the job Donald Trump is doing as president, while 57% disapproved — a net rating of -15. This month's survey finds the same -15 rating, with 41% approval and 56% disapproval.
Issue by issue, voters were asked about how they felt Trump was handling jobs, prices/inflation, trade, foreign policy, immigration, border security, deportations, education, health care, managing the federal workforce, government funding & social programs, and (new for August) crime and public safety. We added this item because of Trump's deployment of the national guard in Washington, D.C., and his threat to do so in other cities across the country.
Results are visualized in the chart below. Trump remains unpopular on all but one topic we track.
Comparing numbers month by month reveals consistent, negative marks for the president, and a lack of significant movement since July.
Border security (+6) is the one place where the president still enjoys a cushion. He also fares better — though is still net unpopular — on immigration (-5) in general and crime/criminal safety (a new addition for our August survey: -3). But Trump is deeply unpopular on social services (-20), health care (-22), and inflation (-27).
It is worth emphasizing that the president's signature policies — immigration and trade/tariffs — are both on net opposed by the American public.
Immigration: Legal status outpolls mass deportation; long‑term residents draw broad sympathy
The first question in this section was recommended by a Strength In Numbers subscriber.
Seeking replication data for findings from a Quinnipiac University poll, we asked our sample a forced-choice question on the ideal immigration policy for undocumented immigrants. In this question, respondents were forced to pick either "give most undocumented immigrants in the United States a pathway to legal status" OR "deport most undocumented immigrants living in the United States."
While our results were less rosy for Democrats and immigrant rights activists than the Quinnipiac poll (64% favoring the pathway vs 31% for mass deportation), we uncovered that most Americans would prefer extending a pathway to citizenship for most immigrants rather than deporting them. Our poll finds a 60-40 split in favor of the pathway:
We also asked respondents to tell us what they'd prefer to do with non-criminal unauthorized immigrants who have been living in the U.S. for at least 10 years, this time not in a forced-choice format (people were able to respond "don't know"). On this question, 68% of adults said that long-term non-criminal undocumented immigrants should be given legal status to live and work in the U.S., whereas only 21% would oppose giving them legal status (11% said don't know).
Politically, this suggests messages that pair security with earned legal status are likely to outperform either hard‑line deportation or enforcement‑free rhetoric. That’s consistent with our June survey experiment showing the popularity of an immigration message that promoted enforcement of the border itself and grace for long-term non-criminal undocumented immigrants.
Democracy & gerrymandering: Strong support for independent commissions and fair maps, even with partisan costs
Topic recommended by multiple Strength In Numbers subscribers.
This month, we asked respondents how they felt about U.S. democracy, and to weigh the fairness of an imbalanced outcome in state U.S. House elections — e.g., one party winning 52% of votes getting 75% of seats — and then probe their appetite for reforms. Most Americans say that outcome is "unfair" (48%, vs 26% for "fair"), and majorities call partisan gerrymandering a big problem in their state (21% "very big problem"; 24% "somewhat big" vs 26% total for "not much" and "not a problem at all").
In terms of solutions, support for independent redistricting commissions is 56%, in line with years of state‑level polling showing cross‑partisan appeal for taking mapmaking out of politicians’ hands. Crucially, when we ask respondents to consider whether they’d still support fair, neutral maps even if their preferred party lost seats, 53% say yes (18% "definitely" and 35% "probably"). That willingness to uphold a rule against self‑interest is a rare and encouraging signal in a polarized era. This result shows that there is a federal legislative solution to the arms race in partisan gerrymandering currently happening across the U.S. (Congress can mandate that all federal House districts be drawn with independent commissions).
Although we did not specify the means to this outcome, we also tested support for proportional representation of U.S. House seats by statewide vote shares (as opposed to the current system of single‑winner districts). 46% said they would support a system that accomplished statewide proportional representation by party (so if a party won 60% of votes for Congress, it receives 60% of seats), whereas 27% were against it.
In a forced-choice question, the vast majority of respondents told us that free elections were more important to them than partisan power, though a troubling percentage still picked that option:
11%: "It is more important for my preferred leaders to hold power, no matter how they get that power, so they can do what I think is best for the country"
89%: "It is more important to have free and fair elections that elect leaders to represent the views of every citizen, even if that means my preferred leaders sometimes lose power"
The results are more reassuring than other surveys, showing an increase, globally and in the U.S., in support for dictatorships and a decline in the rate at which people hold democratic values.
Prices and tariffs
Similar to our previous surveys, the August Strength In Numbers/Verasight survey reveals Americans are deeply anxious about their personal economic situation. And in this poll, voters identify Trump's tariff policies as a chief source of that anxiety.
Overall, 22% of U.S. adults say their own finances are better than a year ago, while 34% say they are doing worse. When asked how they felt about Donald Trump's policies on the economy, 50% say the president has made the economy worse than at this point a year ago, vs 26% who say he has had a positive impact.
Trump's tariffs remain unpopular. On headline support, the public is net 20 points opposed (36 support / 56 oppose) to the president's new import taxes. But his numbers sink even lower when voters are asked about the trade-offs of the policy. When asked if it's better to raise prices or protect jobs, the majority of voters choose lower prices. 33% of adults said "It’s worth it to raise prices if that means protecting American jobs and key industries," whereas 54% responded "It is not worth it to pass tariffs if it means higher prices here at home."
The gap between these two items underscores how question framing and consumer‑price salience affect tariff attitudes. The results suggest that Democrats are likely to benefit electorally from inflation, and that Republicans won't be able to defend Trump's tariff policies even if they do result in job growth.
How people think this poll will be used
Finally, one reader suggested we ask respondents how they think their answers to our poll are likely to be used. Respondents were able to pick multiple options related to the news, academic research, political campaigning, or that their responses wouldn't be used at all. Most said they thought they were being observed for academic research:
51%: "for academic research"
27%: “to help a political campaign"
19%: "in a news story"
21%: "hadn't thought about it"
5%: "won't be used at all"
The Strength In Numbers/Verasight poll is one of the rare cases where Americans are being asked their opinions for multiple reasons. We think the public has a right to know what it thinks, that surveys can tell powerful stories about elections and voter psychology if pollsters want to get creative with methods/experiments, and that democratic accountability ultimately rests on knowing what the public thinks.
The bottom line:
Our August survey results unveil a portrait of a country that is pessimistic about the direction of the country and the leadership of its president. Donald Trump's approval rating, overall and on the issues, remains deeply underwater, including on all issues other than border security. Meanwhile, our findings on tariffs show that while people may like job protection in the abstract, they flinch at price increases here in the real world.
Democrats benefit electorally from that pessimism. In the generic ballot, Democrats lead by 8 points — consistent with our earlier readings of a Dem lead. That combination doesn’t guarantee outcomes (maps and turnout will matter), but it frames the deep hole the president's party has to dig itself out of.
The results on democratic reforms may be the big sleeper story of this month's poll. Americans show a willingness to endorse fair maps even when it hurts their own party, suggesting that in our age of hyper-partisan politics, there is still an appetite for rules over results.
You can download a full topline file and methodology statement using the link below:
For any questions, please email polling[AT]gelliottmorris.com.
Have a suggestion for next month’s poll? Send it to the form or leave it in the comments below!
Thank you! The fact that numbers showed people still favoring process over result was a relief. We get so bogged down with all of the partisan posts online that it can seem like that people truly are hopelessly partisan, and they aren’t. I truly appreciate your work, G. Elliott!
Having designed survey research and taught general research methods, I I'm grateful that you value methodological transparency and longitudinal consistency in questions. I also enjoy the meta-question on use of the survey. Also, I support the idea of questions unpacking how respondents define "border security."