Do the problems with election polls doom issue polling too?
Reanalyses of 2020 polling data suggest that surveys about political attitudes are probably more accurate than pre-election polls
Robert Shapiro, a Columbia University professor and scholar of public opinion (among other things), wrote a piece for the Monkey Cage political science blog at the Washington Post yesterday that says:
In 2020, polls appear to have overconfidently predicted that Joe Biden would handily defeat incumbent President Trump.
While researchers are sorting out the final numbers, some observers are arguing that polling has outlived its usefulness. But while pre-election polls have their problems, mass opinion polling is quite different.
Pollsters frequently make this argument, especially after elections they get wrong.[1] And while most people believe the only real benchmark of political polling is the results of the election, there is both (a) a long history of research into surveys as well as (b) other contemporary data that shores up our faith in broader public opinion polls.




