As someone who wants Democrats to win in 2026 and 2028, I LIKE the narrative from Harry Enten and USA Today. This is because in my opinion too many total libs like me can easily fall deep in our own bubbles. It would be a mistake to think there’s this massive Trump backlash when there isn’t in my opinion. Instead it’s shockingly small and people who want to drive up negative partisanship on the Republican side have a lot of work to do!
Polls are what we've got going forward, and your analysis is top notch. And how a question is asked makes a lot of difference.
What I'd still like to know, is who turned out to vote in 2024, especially in the swing states. Arizona, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin each have files available with voting history, although Wisconsin's is pricey. There were slight increases in the total number of votes cast, but Trump ended up with enough to win these three states, which were Biden wins in 2020. And these three would have elected Harris. Did new 2024 voters make the difference?
4% might not seem like much. But given Trump’s narrow margins in the battleground states, I bet that would be enough for him to lose instead of winning.
Nicely explained, thanks! Turnout does seem to be a crucial factor, witness what happened in Wisconsin. There was an incredible turnout for their Supreme Court vote. The groundwork and communication there was fabulous. Messaging that reaches non-voters is critical.
Isn't there another phenomenon in the mix. People often say they did something they wish the had done, or say they didn't do something they wish they had. It's the halo effect. More people said they voted for JFK, went to Woodstock etc than did. So the denominator is suspect. Or maybe there was an adjustment for that? But yes fun
So you’re saying you think the Trump number is inflated because some people are saying they voted for him just because he won?
Yes, the survey avoids this by asking people who they voted for immediately after the election, when recalled vote is more accurate, and then stores that information for later surveys.
Well done! Plus, the hypothetical reasons not to vote for the Dems haven't changed, so I suspect that "explanations" of their vote would just stress these more than positives for Trump.
Many of them, no. They relied on Donald being FOS, and projected onto him what they wanted and thought reasonable. The man's a Rohrschach blot with agency!
Well your first weird assumption is that they even CARE that much what ‘trans’ people are doing. They just don’t want bad people co-opting things so that grown men can pretend to be trans and use the cover to commit heinous crimes. Which HAS already occurred, so there’s your first fallacy. These people want limited govt. out of their lives, not to be harassed by Merrick Garland for going to school board meetings. It’s actually NOT that complicated unless you’re trying to overcomplicate it for your own bias.
OK. So assuming you're not a troll (which is generous);
1. Ted Cruz ran exclusively on banning trans kids from sports. This is a big wedge issue that seems to have manly maga foaming at the mouth. I don't know that trans kids committed any heinous crimes. But clearly you think so. So don't accuse me of bias.
2. Merrick Garland hasn't harassed anyone for going to school board meetings; rather, magassholes went to school board meetings to stir trouble, harass teachers and parents, and bombthrow their christofascist agenda for public schools, in clear violation of the 1st Amendment
3. You say that magassholes want limited government. this "limited government" should provide voucher for christofascist private schools, ag subsidies, pay for mawmaw's medications and assisted living facility, give out food stamps and disability benefits (by the way this sounds like sushulizm to me), just making sure that none of the good stuff gets to the welfare queens, who just happen to be non white.
This limited government is also expected to help with public safety and keep the riff-raff (also non white, and in their view likely hispanic) out, but at the same time allow for a boatload of guns to flow freely into the streets.
And, ALSO, somehow, this limited government should dictate which books your kids can read, what qualifies as a refugee (as it happens - they have to be white), what things universities can do research on, whether viruses exist or not, whether the climate is changing or not, whether we should rape and pillage national parks and public lands or not, whether fossil fuels get massive subsidies or not. That's a shitload of work for a limited government.
As someone who wants Democrats to win in 2026 and 2028, I LIKE the narrative from Harry Enten and USA Today. This is because in my opinion too many total libs like me can easily fall deep in our own bubbles. It would be a mistake to think there’s this massive Trump backlash when there isn’t in my opinion. Instead it’s shockingly small and people who want to drive up negative partisanship on the Republican side have a lot of work to do!
Polls are what we've got going forward, and your analysis is top notch. And how a question is asked makes a lot of difference.
What I'd still like to know, is who turned out to vote in 2024, especially in the swing states. Arizona, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin each have files available with voting history, although Wisconsin's is pricey. There were slight increases in the total number of votes cast, but Trump ended up with enough to win these three states, which were Biden wins in 2020. And these three would have elected Harris. Did new 2024 voters make the difference?
4% might not seem like much. But given Trump’s narrow margins in the battleground states, I bet that would be enough for him to lose instead of winning.
Great stuff, Elliott. Analysis like this uncovers a lot that I think MSM pundits miss (just look at Enten, for example).
It would be interesting to compare this poll to a similar one that asked the question by party rather than candidate.
Nicely explained, thanks! Turnout does seem to be a crucial factor, witness what happened in Wisconsin. There was an incredible turnout for their Supreme Court vote. The groundwork and communication there was fabulous. Messaging that reaches non-voters is critical.
The lower vote in 2024 than 2020 was significant. The difference at my own polling place was stark, long lines in '20, none in '24.
Covid was probably the devisive factor, having Trump in our faces during that was 'not very nice'.
Effect probably exaggerated at my polling place, in the Bronx, where sirens sounded 24/7 at the peak.
Knew when the election had been called for Biden when people began banging pots!
Isn't there another phenomenon in the mix. People often say they did something they wish the had done, or say they didn't do something they wish they had. It's the halo effect. More people said they voted for JFK, went to Woodstock etc than did. So the denominator is suspect. Or maybe there was an adjustment for that? But yes fun
So you’re saying you think the Trump number is inflated because some people are saying they voted for him just because he won?
Yes, the survey avoids this by asking people who they voted for immediately after the election, when recalled vote is more accurate, and then stores that information for later surveys.
A possibly more revealing question of actual 2024 voters would be how many of them would likely be non-voters if the election were held today.
Well done! Plus, the hypothetical reasons not to vote for the Dems haven't changed, so I suspect that "explanations" of their vote would just stress these more than positives for Trump.
Why would they regret their choice? They are getting everything they voted for.
Many of them, no. They relied on Donald being FOS, and projected onto him what they wanted and thought reasonable. The man's a Rohrschach blot with agency!
They wanted mass deportations now and to hurt trans ppl. It's working out well
Not mass at all, yet, made for TV stunts, they don't have the resources for more.
The current going rare plus the TV cruelty is good enough. The cultards are not picky as long as the right ppl suffer
It's funny. Because... that's not what any Trump voters wanted. That's a VERY skewed view of things.
I'm sorry but my mind is not complex enough to divine their minds. So what exactly did they want?
Well your first weird assumption is that they even CARE that much what ‘trans’ people are doing. They just don’t want bad people co-opting things so that grown men can pretend to be trans and use the cover to commit heinous crimes. Which HAS already occurred, so there’s your first fallacy. These people want limited govt. out of their lives, not to be harassed by Merrick Garland for going to school board meetings. It’s actually NOT that complicated unless you’re trying to overcomplicate it for your own bias.
OK. So assuming you're not a troll (which is generous);
1. Ted Cruz ran exclusively on banning trans kids from sports. This is a big wedge issue that seems to have manly maga foaming at the mouth. I don't know that trans kids committed any heinous crimes. But clearly you think so. So don't accuse me of bias.
2. Merrick Garland hasn't harassed anyone for going to school board meetings; rather, magassholes went to school board meetings to stir trouble, harass teachers and parents, and bombthrow their christofascist agenda for public schools, in clear violation of the 1st Amendment
3. You say that magassholes want limited government. this "limited government" should provide voucher for christofascist private schools, ag subsidies, pay for mawmaw's medications and assisted living facility, give out food stamps and disability benefits (by the way this sounds like sushulizm to me), just making sure that none of the good stuff gets to the welfare queens, who just happen to be non white.
This limited government is also expected to help with public safety and keep the riff-raff (also non white, and in their view likely hispanic) out, but at the same time allow for a boatload of guns to flow freely into the streets.
And, ALSO, somehow, this limited government should dictate which books your kids can read, what qualifies as a refugee (as it happens - they have to be white), what things universities can do research on, whether viruses exist or not, whether the climate is changing or not, whether we should rape and pillage national parks and public lands or not, whether fossil fuels get massive subsidies or not. That's a shitload of work for a limited government.
You cannot be confused about these things.
You clearly are all about rational choices. I hope you have the day you voted for.