Exit polls tell conflicting stories of the 2021 Virginia governor's race

Neither the claims that Republicans won Hispanics nor that college-educated whites stayed in place seem correct

Knowing the political composition of different demographic groups is key to political journalism, campaign strategy, and our collective understanding of the body politic. That’s why problems with the exit polls in Virginia — where Democrat Terry McAuliffe just lost the governors’ election to Glenn Youngkin — should trouble you.

Take for example the exit polls from Edison Research (conducted on behalf of the major news networks). They show that Democrats made gains with Latino and Asian voters between 2020 and 2021 despite their declining vote share statewide. According to Edison, Youngkin won in Virginia because McAuliffe’s share of the two-party vote with whites fell by eight points relative to Biden’s share with the group last year.

This is not unbelievable in isolation. Eg, perhaps Latino voters were just particularly drawn to Trump last year, and so have now reverted to their typical Democratic lean. However, this is a weird result when you consider that it is rare for a party to …