House retirements forecast Democratic gains in 2026

17 Republican and 11 Democratic U.S. House members have said they won't run for re-election next year

Here’s a short paragraph from a story I saw from NPR reporter Stephen Fowler this morning:

NPR is tracking the record number of congressional lawmakers who have announced they do not plan to run for reelection to their current seats in 2026. That number currently stands at 10 senators and 27 House members.

Fifteen are retiring from public office with the rest running for a different office — 11 looking to become governor of their state, 10 looking to make the jump from House to Senate and one, Texas Republican Rep. Chip Roy, is looking to become his state's attorney general.

There are more Republicans signaling their desire to exit Washington (27) than Democrats (10).

This piqued my interest because handicappers have long looked to the number of net retirements for the party in power (Republican this cycle) as a forecasting tool for the midterm elections.

I haven’t done an article about this yet this cycle, and now is as good a time as ever. Let's run the numbers on this historical relationship and see what it says about 2026.

Retirements forecast GOP loss of two dozen House seats in 2026