How Bernie wins

His strength stems from a devoted base and a lack of consensus among moderates

The Democrats’ presidential primary for 2020 began with a lot of skepticism about Bernie Sanders’s ability to win the Party’s nomination. One of the most dominant ideas propelling his bearishness was the theory that many of his 2016 supporters were simply #NeverHillary and wouldn’t vote for him this time around. Nate Silver estimated that Sanders would have won 8 fewer states last cycle if these anti-Hillary voters had a different candidate to vote for. His base nationally would have been 33%, rather than the 43% of the vote he actually got:

The suggestion at the time was that this deflated base would doom Sanders for 2020. This is partially evident now in that his vote share in national polls is much lower now than it was last time around. But look under the hood and you’ll find that the primary thus far has really played out much differently than originally expected.

Though Sanders’s support is worse relative to his 2016 performance, voters that were opposed to him last time around ha…