Strength In Numbers

Strength In Numbers

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Strength In Numbers
Strength In Numbers
How overconfidence hurts the polling and forecasting industries
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How overconfidence hurts the polling and forecasting industries

Some reflections on an attention-grabbing forecasting method and thoughts about how election forecasting actually works

G. Elliott Morris's avatar
G. Elliott Morris
Jul 18, 2019
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Strength In Numbers
Strength In Numbers
How overconfidence hurts the polling and forecasting industries
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How quantitative forecasting works:

The Takeaway: As we approach the 2020 election, beware of attention-grabby, overconfident “forecasts” that purport to be better than all of the other ones. Listen only to them and you might just get burned. In this email I’ll lay out my objections to an existing forecasting model and explain my passion for proper calib…

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