How overconfidence hurts the polling and forecasting industries

Some reflections on an attention-grabbing forecasting method and thoughts about how election forecasting actually works

How quantitative forecasting works:

The Takeaway: As we approach the 2020 election, beware of attention-grabby, overconfident “forecasts” that purport to be better than all of the other ones. Listen only to them and you might just get burned. In this email I’ll lay out my objections to an existing forecasting model and explain my passion for proper calibrations of (un)certainty.