How public opinion polls shape Supreme Court decisions

Notes from Ketanji Brown Jackson's confirmation hearings and polls on same-sex marriage

Today’s subscribers-only post is about Ketanji Brown Jackson’s Supreme Court confirmation hearings. They present a rare opportunity to write on the intersection of current events, polls, and an excerpt from my upcoming book.

As a refresher: On Thursday, Ketanji Brown Jackson, Joe Biden’s nominee to fill the seat on the Supreme Court that will be left open by Stephen Breyer when he retires this summer, finished a week of testimony to the Senate judiciary committee. The same group of senators advanced her nomination for the federal circuit court of appeals last year. On the Senate floor, 53 senators (50 Democrats and 3 Republicans) voted to confirm her.

All of this suggests the hearings for her Supreme Court nomination might largely end up a formality. If Jackson is qualified for a position on the appeals bench, we’d assume she would make a good Supreme Court justice, too. (Of course, that’s conditional on the members of the prior hearing doing a good job in their research and questionin…