How to read outlier polls
Where they come from, and what to do with them
Dear reader,
Last weekend, you may have seen a surprising poll result from ABC News (my employer) and The Washington Post. The poll had Trump up 9 points over Biden for a 2024 matchup — quite an outlier when compared to the average poll today (roughly Biden +2, per my estimates for 538).
The episode brought up a lot of good questions (and some harsh criti…
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