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How to think about uncertainty in election models

How to think about uncertainty in election models

What can we know (and measure) about the world?

G. Elliott Morris's avatar
G. Elliott Morris
Jul 26, 2020
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Strength In Numbers
Strength In Numbers
How to think about uncertainty in election models
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Friends, 

Happy Saturday. What follows is a long and long-overdue post on uncertainty in election forecasting. I think there’s a lot we can know about the world but more that we can’t. The only way to model things is to analyze that uncertainty empirically and rigorously.

(PS: I typed much of the post on my phone so please be forgiving of any typos.)

Ellio…

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