How to think about uncertainty in election models

What can we know (and measure) about the world?

Friends, 

Happy Saturday. What follows is a long and long-overdue post on uncertainty in election forecasting. I think there’s a lot we can know about the world but more that we can’t. The only way to model things is to analyze that uncertainty empirically and rigorously.

(PS: I typed much of the post on my phone so please be forgiving of any typos.)

Ellio…