Life on the list: Since landing on the Turning Point USA list, some professors have gotten hateful emails, online messages and letters threatening rape or death. In some instances, they have seen that activity intensify since Kirk’s death.
Thank you for all of your hard work. I am confused, however, by a couple of points made in this newsletter. First, you cite YouGov for the proposition that Republican support for controversial speech they disagree with has fallen 18% since February. Does that correspond to the first item on the YouGov graph? If so, does that mean that roughly only 5% (4.88% to be more precise) of Republicans supported that type of free speech as of February? Second, I am unclear what comprises the MCMC score in Figure 4. If it is explained in your newsletter, then I missed it and apologize.
The decline in speech tolerance per the YouGov data is referring to a different question, which thy go into more detail at the link. Ditto for the democracy score — the methodology I felt was a bit too inaccessible for most readers on this site. Let me know if you have additional questions
Hi Elliot, not sure if you read through the notes on your substack, but I was struck that your conclusions were that our last best hopes were people like Tucker Carlson (in group pressure) and voting. Certainly, they are key in the fight against authoritarianism, but in the case of the former, perilous given their other worldviews, and in the case of the latter dependent on the authoritarian in question not succeeding in his already concerted efforts to overthrow our free and fair elections by the midterms (gerrymandering, the so-called "SAVE" Act, voter purges, National Guard deployments during the elections for voter intimidation, voter suppression, etc.).
As I am not sure I agree entirely with your assessment above, instead I want to highlight this comment:
"There is something we can do, but the window is narrow, and complacency will not help."
I agree, the window is narrow -- it is actually what's called the "authoritarian breakthrough."
But, on the matter of complacency...many, many of us are anything but in this moment.
I've actually been keeping a spreadsheet of opposition wins, as I see them/hear about them. I've broken the wins into categories: elections, judicial, etc. but also, specifically into examples of nonviolent civic resistance. Perhaps you've heard of the Erica Chenoweth and Maria J. Stephens work? They would be very much worth knowing.
The article above is about the 3.5% rule of thumb and how in 300+ cases examined since 1900, mass defiance does in fact outperform violent counterinsurgencies when it comes to defeating authoritarian takeovers or backsliding in existing democracies.
So in my spreadsheet, I've been tracking wins that are examples of actions that undermine what are called the "pillars of support."
1) protest & persuasion
2) noncooperation (boycotts, etc.) and
3) building alternatives (community mobilization for support and protection)
In a nutshell, authoritarians follow the same, tired playbook and Yam Tits TACO is certainly no exception. But, what most of us don't know is that there is also a set of established, nonviolent counter-offensive plays that we, as members of a democracy, can deploy and which—when sustained and adopted by a broad and large enough coalition—can (and has repeatedly done) topple regimes.
At a macro level, it's worth noting a few key momentum indicators: Did you know there are literally three times (3X) as many protests now as in 2017, even if the media doesn't cover it (because they've abdicated their role as the press holding power accountable to being stenographers for the powerful, and with the recent Kimmel firing, supplicanting lap dogs)?
Also, did you know that boycotts have effectively gutted the value of both Tesla and Target, and are now laser focused on bringing down Avelo Airlines (the airline of choice for ICE's criminal abductions, trafficking and false imprisonment of our neighbors in concentration camps)?
At the micro level, here's one case in point of how people, ordinary, everyday Americans are standing up, speaking out and fighting back against this racist, nativist, sexist, and LGBTQ-hating regime's attacks on freedoms, families and futures:
The indictment rate for grand juries is typically 99% (there's a reason "Grand Juries could indict a ham sandwich" is a saying). However, in the regime's case, for the DOJ attorney that's brought felony criminal charges against peaceful ICE protesters that were arrested in LA—the indictment rate has been 18%!
That is huge; because it shows how the 'average' person, politically engaged or not, is doing the right thing.
The same thing is happening in D.C. (including for Sean Charles Dunn, AKA sandwich thrower).
The bottom line, opposition wins are happening. And that's not counting the ones I am sure you are far more intimately aware of than me, such as Catelin Drey's election, which swung her IA district by 21 points. Or the 40 special elections since January 1, 2025, where voters have been voting for Dems (in red, blue and purple districts) by a margin of 15.7pts over (that's in comparison to this same point—same number of races—in 2017, when the overperformance that preceded the 40+ seat blue wave of 2018 was about 12 pts).
The advice I've been following since January 20 of this year is: tune out the noise, but don't drop the signal...given this narrow window we are in, action is key.
As we face the efforts to break down our democracy and take away hard fought freedoms, I will hold onto these two quotes to continue to avoid complacency:
When everyone has just a little bit of courage, no one has to be a hero.
~ Congressmember, Sarah McBride (quoting her dad)
We are living through a revolt against the future. The future will prevail.
Hi Natalie. I read every comment! Thanks for yours.
If Tucker Carlson causes Trump to back down on his threats to democracy, I would consider that a win. I do not, however, think it’s all that likely.
The “last best hope” is a realignment of members from both parties against the auth-right takeover of the U.S. government, and for multiparty democracy. Yes, that’s going to take more than just Democrats to accomplish!
When Fox news can seriously argue in court that they can't be held liable for lies spewed by hosts because "they are just entertainers", and "nobody believes this crap", and trump is a proud and blatant liar, I think we need a freshman English tutorial on the difference between propaganda on persuasion.
Thank you Elliott for continuing to fight for democracy with integrity armed with data! For everyone else who is feeling the weight of the world and not sure what to do…
IT’S REALLY SIMPLE:
👎 WE CAN TALK ALL DAY ABOUT HOW DEMOCRACY IS BROKEN. OR
👍 WE CAN SUPPORT THE PEOPLE FIGHTING FOR DEMOCRACY.
Come find out how young people are mobilizing and organizing at our first Donuts + Democracy Fall 2025 kickoff VIRTUAL house party!
🙌 SPECIAL GUESTS: Congressman Jamie Raskin and Our Amazing Student Organizers
⏰ WHEN: Sunday, September 21st - 4:30pm PST/7:30pm EST
Couldn't agree more, talk at this point is not just cheap...it is a boon to the fascists.
This recent firing of Kimmel, like all of the attacks by Tr*mp/F'Elon/MAGA on our fundamental freedoms needs to be framed in the harm to everyday AMERICANS—not only our institutions (like the press/media).
When Tr*mp takes another play out of the Authoritarian Playbook, it must be talked about in the ways it hurts us. Of course, I understand SIN readers are far removed from the segment of Americans who don't/can't vote regularly, but it would be extremely helpful for each of us to internalize the importance of framing, as we share this with less engaged people in our networks (because we are trusted messengers in our own social circles and now, more than ever, need to get louder).
What the regime is trying to do is remove any/all checks on presidential power, allowing Tr*mp (and his unelected billionaire crony/accomplice/puppetmaster, F'Elon) to rule over us completely unrestrained:
- MAGA wants to take away our freedoms, including our freedom of speech
- MAGA wants take away our freedom to thrive economically, by making massive cuts to our earned benefits in Social Security and Medicare, all to give price-gouging corporations even more money and control over our lives
- MAGA wants to take away our freedom to decide if, when, or how to start or grow our families through national bans or severe restrictions on access to abortion, fertility services, and contraception (going so far as criminalizing access)
At the end of the day, they want to rule us, not represent us and Project 2025 was the recipe for turning presidential power into a dictator's power (where Carr's action was explicitly called out in advance)—you have only to look at GOP-controlled trifectas to see how red states have already been beta testing Project 2025 since 2010 when redmap gerrymandered 1,000 seats away from voters.
Simply put, Project 2025 is their plan to control our families and decide our futures for us.
But if more of us show up, speak out, and fight back for our values, namely for our freedoms, we can win—because we are the supermajority of this country.
Remember, Yam Tits has never–in THREE elections–won even half of the popular vote, let alone a majority (and that's not counting the voting eligible population, where he's never garnered even a third).
The media defaults to a binary, conflict-driven narrative that flattens reality and creates false equivalences. And worse, at this point, rather than speak truth to power, they are stenographers to power. Tr*mp/MAGA and their entire cadre of racist, nativist, sexist, and LGBTQ-hating fascists are the resistance...because WE are the people, the power, and the future. They are the ones fighting progress and the march of justice.
Look over the long, long sweep of history and recognize them as the troglodytes they are—too insecure to embrace diversity, too selfish to strive for equity, and too self-hating to embrace inclusion. If we speak loudly enough, as thousands of protesters for #FreeDC and No Tr*mp in Chicago rallies did, the Dems that so religiously cling to polls will find the courage needed to oppose this regime.
Ironically, the networks are making themselves even more irrelevant. Some of us thought they were fact checked, mildly biased and selective of their content. By firing Kimmel and Colbert, they have clearly bellowed an announcement that they are right wing tools of MAGA and corporations. In this day and age, we all have plenty of places to turn for news. The networks have chosen this moment to announce that they do not support the foundational democratic principles of free speech. I certainly will never turn them on again, not as a protest, but because they no longer offer me anything of value. They have shot their own dinosaur.
remember that the networks are just companies, with a strong profit and responsibility to the shareholder. they are very averse to controversy that could impact ratings (which continue to secularly decline).
yes, ironically they have really hurt themselves with the core audience for news — engaged white people — this time. i won’t be surprised if they put Kimmel back up but make him deliver some embarrassing apologetic monologue to try to appease Trump. (That won’t work)
Great post. But, I'm increasingly skeptical about free and fair elections being allowed or if allowed accepted in 2026 or 2028. Considering 2020, the more aggressive 2nd term and the fully sycophantic supporting cast. If your enemy are considered to be vermin, then why would you let them get elected?
I think it’s pretty obvious that Trump will do everything in his power to tilt the midterms in his favor. Partisan gerrymandering is a type of cheating. But there are many aspects of election administration that are *not* in Trump’s power, and federal and state courts have been much better about holding him accountable (esp. relative to SCOTUS). So maybe I’m just a tad more optimistic than others here.
I’m not unconcerned, but keep in mind that there are loads of people who are neither in MAGA or opposed to MAGA. The administration seems to want to abuse power in ways that are against either unpopular targets or they can hide behind a pretense.
They haven’t overtly violated court orders. They backed down from sending the national guard to Chicago. They didn’t even fire Powell although in that case the fear is probably about financial markets not of popular opposition.
I maintain that Trump has already reached peak power and his losses will continue to pile up. That will unfortunately also make him more dangerous in the short-term - including possibly going all in on trying to cheat on the midterms.
So yeah, a concern, but something that the best preparation for is to keep organizing and talking to people so that too many people are looking forward to voting for Democrats in the midterms and won’t tolerate shenanigans.
"A conservative election researcher whose faulty findings on voter data were cited by President Donald Trump as he tried to overturn his 2020 election loss has been appointed to an election integrity role at the U.S. Department of Homeland Security. The political appointment, first reported by Democracy Docket, shows how self-styled election investigators who have thrown themselves into election conspiracy theories since 2020 are now being celebrated by a presidential administration that indulges their false claims.
Her new role, which didn’t exist under President Joe Biden, also comes as Trump has used election integrity concerns as a pretext to try to give his administration power over how elections are run in the U.S.
The president has ordered sweeping changes to election processes and vowed to do away with mail ballots and voting machines to promote “honesty” in the 2026 midterms, despite a lack of constitutional authority to do so. Trump’s Department of Justice also has demanded complete state voter lists, raising concerns about voter privacy and questions about how the federal government plans to use the sensitive data."
Associated Press article: "Researcher who has distorted voter data appointed to Homeland Security election integrity role.", Aug. 25.
Haven’t most states refused to cooperate with the requests for voting lists?
It is very possible that I am overly optimistic.
Appointing a lunatic to head an “election integrity” role isn’t good. But he already had Bondi and Patel and masked ICE agents running around.
The administration needs to be resisted and blocked whenever legally possible and their actions contested in national, local, and social media.
I do not think it helps to focus on what Trump might do unless it is connected to actions he’s taken know. So thanks for reminding me and anyone reading that Homeland making unconstitutional requests that would make it easier for them to mess with the midterms.
That said, the best and most important way to stop the administration is to convince more Iowans, Texans, Ohioans, particularly, and Americans generally that Republicans are bad for the economy, affordability, and their quality of life, and that Democrats will fight to help the economy grow and be fairer for working people.
Actually, Democratic state attorneys general, cities, states, and trade unions, per tabulations by the group Just Security, have filed 384 cases through August 28. Some 130 have led to court orders blocking at least part of Trump’s moves, and another 148 cases are pending.
Also, Dem AGs have been meeting daily and were working on plans before the election.
The 100 lawsuits since just took office are mostly because they have violated laws, regulations or the Constitution. And when they lose they immediately appeal. And if they lose again, they appeal to the Supreme Court. The Supreme Court continually using their emergency docket to stay rulings against the administration.
But when push comes to shove, they have mostly backed done when the courts have thwarted them. (Sometimes the damage is already done and irreparable, ie destruction of USAID. Sometimes they’ve gotten Congress to cover them after the fact ie the budget rescissions) They clearly example of this is returning Abrigo Garcia who they had said would never set foot in the US again.
On CA, they successfully stayed the first decision, so that they had time to defend their appeal of the initial decision.
The tariff decision will go before the Supreme Court.
I’m not arguing that the administration’s actions aren’t wrong, aren’t illegal, aren’t unconstitutional. I am arguing that they have always cloaked them in some pretense of legitimacy. And because either the victims are unpopular or the law is complicated, they have mostly avoided antagonizing the unaffiliated and the cynical. And I suspect that they want to keep a pretense of legality and legitimacy with whatever they try during the midterm elections. It will be hard to for example stop all voting in Atlanta, Houston, and Cleveland to ensure the Senate doesn’t flip. But maybe slowing things down with the help of Republican governors. That is likely to happen.
The potentially hopeful thing here to consider with regard to free speech is that, while he appears to be going after all media, it's certainly harder to do so online because it's
A. Decentralized
B. Much less regulated than legacy media (weird case where Republicans pursuing deregulation hurts them lol)
I'm not saying that they won't be successful on this too, but it has to be acknowledged that it won't be as easy as the FCC placing a call to Bob Iger.
Life on the list: Since landing on the Turning Point USA list, some professors have gotten hateful emails, online messages and letters threatening rape or death. In some instances, they have seen that activity intensify since Kirk’s death.
https://chicago.suntimes.com/morning-edition/2025/09/19/illinois-professors-charlie-kirk-turning-point-usa-u-s-immigration-and-customs-enforcement-facility-broadview
Thank you for all of your hard work. I am confused, however, by a couple of points made in this newsletter. First, you cite YouGov for the proposition that Republican support for controversial speech they disagree with has fallen 18% since February. Does that correspond to the first item on the YouGov graph? If so, does that mean that roughly only 5% (4.88% to be more precise) of Republicans supported that type of free speech as of February? Second, I am unclear what comprises the MCMC score in Figure 4. If it is explained in your newsletter, then I missed it and apologize.
Hi “Dad,”
The decline in speech tolerance per the YouGov data is referring to a different question, which thy go into more detail at the link. Ditto for the democracy score — the methodology I felt was a bit too inaccessible for most readers on this site. Let me know if you have additional questions
Hi Elliot, not sure if you read through the notes on your substack, but I was struck that your conclusions were that our last best hopes were people like Tucker Carlson (in group pressure) and voting. Certainly, they are key in the fight against authoritarianism, but in the case of the former, perilous given their other worldviews, and in the case of the latter dependent on the authoritarian in question not succeeding in his already concerted efforts to overthrow our free and fair elections by the midterms (gerrymandering, the so-called "SAVE" Act, voter purges, National Guard deployments during the elections for voter intimidation, voter suppression, etc.).
As I am not sure I agree entirely with your assessment above, instead I want to highlight this comment:
"There is something we can do, but the window is narrow, and complacency will not help."
I agree, the window is narrow -- it is actually what's called the "authoritarian breakthrough."
https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-features/trump-authoritarian-no-kings-playbook-1235388347/
But, on the matter of complacency...many, many of us are anything but in this moment.
I've actually been keeping a spreadsheet of opposition wins, as I see them/hear about them. I've broken the wins into categories: elections, judicial, etc. but also, specifically into examples of nonviolent civic resistance. Perhaps you've heard of the Erica Chenoweth and Maria J. Stephens work? They would be very much worth knowing.
https://www.journalofdemocracy.org/articles/the-future-of-nonviolent-resistance-2/
The article above is about the 3.5% rule of thumb and how in 300+ cases examined since 1900, mass defiance does in fact outperform violent counterinsurgencies when it comes to defeating authoritarian takeovers or backsliding in existing democracies.
So in my spreadsheet, I've been tracking wins that are examples of actions that undermine what are called the "pillars of support."
1) protest & persuasion
2) noncooperation (boycotts, etc.) and
3) building alternatives (community mobilization for support and protection)
In a nutshell, authoritarians follow the same, tired playbook and Yam Tits TACO is certainly no exception. But, what most of us don't know is that there is also a set of established, nonviolent counter-offensive plays that we, as members of a democracy, can deploy and which—when sustained and adopted by a broad and large enough coalition—can (and has repeatedly done) topple regimes.
At a macro level, it's worth noting a few key momentum indicators: Did you know there are literally three times (3X) as many protests now as in 2017, even if the media doesn't cover it (because they've abdicated their role as the press holding power accountable to being stenographers for the powerful, and with the recent Kimmel firing, supplicanting lap dogs)?
Source: https://wagingnonviolence.org/2025/06/american-spring-nonviolent-protest-accelerating/
Also, did you know that boycotts have effectively gutted the value of both Tesla and Target, and are now laser focused on bringing down Avelo Airlines (the airline of choice for ICE's criminal abductions, trafficking and false imprisonment of our neighbors in concentration camps)?
Source: https://www.cnn.com/2025/04/28/business/things-at-tesla-are-worse-than-they-appear
At the micro level, here's one case in point of how people, ordinary, everyday Americans are standing up, speaking out and fighting back against this racist, nativist, sexist, and LGBTQ-hating regime's attacks on freedoms, families and futures:
The indictment rate for grand juries is typically 99% (there's a reason "Grand Juries could indict a ham sandwich" is a saying). However, in the regime's case, for the DOJ attorney that's brought felony criminal charges against peaceful ICE protesters that were arrested in LA—the indictment rate has been 18%!
That is huge; because it shows how the 'average' person, politically engaged or not, is doing the right thing.
The same thing is happening in D.C. (including for Sean Charles Dunn, AKA sandwich thrower).
Source: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/grand-juries-reject-indictments-amid-trumps-dc-crackdown/ar-AA1LJNL3
The bottom line, opposition wins are happening. And that's not counting the ones I am sure you are far more intimately aware of than me, such as Catelin Drey's election, which swung her IA district by 21 points. Or the 40 special elections since January 1, 2025, where voters have been voting for Dems (in red, blue and purple districts) by a margin of 15.7pts over (that's in comparison to this same point—same number of races—in 2017, when the overperformance that preceded the 40+ seat blue wave of 2018 was about 12 pts).
The advice I've been following since January 20 of this year is: tune out the noise, but don't drop the signal...given this narrow window we are in, action is key.
As we face the efforts to break down our democracy and take away hard fought freedoms, I will hold onto these two quotes to continue to avoid complacency:
When everyone has just a little bit of courage, no one has to be a hero.
~ Congressmember, Sarah McBride (quoting her dad)
We are living through a revolt against the future. The future will prevail.
~ Author, Anand Giridharadas
Hi Natalie. I read every comment! Thanks for yours.
If Tucker Carlson causes Trump to back down on his threats to democracy, I would consider that a win. I do not, however, think it’s all that likely.
The “last best hope” is a realignment of members from both parties against the auth-right takeover of the U.S. government, and for multiparty democracy. Yes, that’s going to take more than just Democrats to accomplish!
When Fox news can seriously argue in court that they can't be held liable for lies spewed by hosts because "they are just entertainers", and "nobody believes this crap", and trump is a proud and blatant liar, I think we need a freshman English tutorial on the difference between propaganda on persuasion.
Don't forget that when Tucker Carlson defends "free speech" - he's protecting his rice bowl, how earns his living.
Thank you, Elliott. And here is a Nobel Prize winner telling us that we're experiencing what happened in the Philippines. https://youtu.be/Tsb1I7hqaJ4
Thank you Elliott for continuing to fight for democracy with integrity armed with data! For everyone else who is feeling the weight of the world and not sure what to do…
IT’S REALLY SIMPLE:
👎 WE CAN TALK ALL DAY ABOUT HOW DEMOCRACY IS BROKEN. OR
👍 WE CAN SUPPORT THE PEOPLE FIGHTING FOR DEMOCRACY.
Come find out how young people are mobilizing and organizing at our first Donuts + Democracy Fall 2025 kickoff VIRTUAL house party!
🙌 SPECIAL GUESTS: Congressman Jamie Raskin and Our Amazing Student Organizers
⏰ WHEN: Sunday, September 21st - 4:30pm PST/7:30pm EST
🛋️ WHERE: Zoom from your sofa
✅ RSVP https://tinyurl.com/yuftxm47
Couldn't agree more, talk at this point is not just cheap...it is a boon to the fascists.
This recent firing of Kimmel, like all of the attacks by Tr*mp/F'Elon/MAGA on our fundamental freedoms needs to be framed in the harm to everyday AMERICANS—not only our institutions (like the press/media).
When Tr*mp takes another play out of the Authoritarian Playbook, it must be talked about in the ways it hurts us. Of course, I understand SIN readers are far removed from the segment of Americans who don't/can't vote regularly, but it would be extremely helpful for each of us to internalize the importance of framing, as we share this with less engaged people in our networks (because we are trusted messengers in our own social circles and now, more than ever, need to get louder).
What the regime is trying to do is remove any/all checks on presidential power, allowing Tr*mp (and his unelected billionaire crony/accomplice/puppetmaster, F'Elon) to rule over us completely unrestrained:
- MAGA wants to take away our freedoms, including our freedom of speech
- MAGA wants take away our freedom to thrive economically, by making massive cuts to our earned benefits in Social Security and Medicare, all to give price-gouging corporations even more money and control over our lives
- MAGA wants to take away our freedom to decide if, when, or how to start or grow our families through national bans or severe restrictions on access to abortion, fertility services, and contraception (going so far as criminalizing access)
At the end of the day, they want to rule us, not represent us and Project 2025 was the recipe for turning presidential power into a dictator's power (where Carr's action was explicitly called out in advance)—you have only to look at GOP-controlled trifectas to see how red states have already been beta testing Project 2025 since 2010 when redmap gerrymandered 1,000 seats away from voters.
Simply put, Project 2025 is their plan to control our families and decide our futures for us.
But if more of us show up, speak out, and fight back for our values, namely for our freedoms, we can win—because we are the supermajority of this country.
Remember, Yam Tits has never–in THREE elections–won even half of the popular vote, let alone a majority (and that's not counting the voting eligible population, where he's never garnered even a third).
The media defaults to a binary, conflict-driven narrative that flattens reality and creates false equivalences. And worse, at this point, rather than speak truth to power, they are stenographers to power. Tr*mp/MAGA and their entire cadre of racist, nativist, sexist, and LGBTQ-hating fascists are the resistance...because WE are the people, the power, and the future. They are the ones fighting progress and the march of justice.
Look over the long, long sweep of history and recognize them as the troglodytes they are—too insecure to embrace diversity, too selfish to strive for equity, and too self-hating to embrace inclusion. If we speak loudly enough, as thousands of protesters for #FreeDC and No Tr*mp in Chicago rallies did, the Dems that so religiously cling to polls will find the courage needed to oppose this regime.
I would love to read your analysis of the "white" factor in Trump's support. Say the quiet part out loud please: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/donald-trumps-approval-rating-flips-with-white-voters/ar-AA1M2LKW?ocid=BingNewsSerp
"Blame Masters"? Or is it Blake Masters?
"m" and "k" are near other on the keyboard, so probably a typo.
Ironically, the networks are making themselves even more irrelevant. Some of us thought they were fact checked, mildly biased and selective of their content. By firing Kimmel and Colbert, they have clearly bellowed an announcement that they are right wing tools of MAGA and corporations. In this day and age, we all have plenty of places to turn for news. The networks have chosen this moment to announce that they do not support the foundational democratic principles of free speech. I certainly will never turn them on again, not as a protest, but because they no longer offer me anything of value. They have shot their own dinosaur.
remember that the networks are just companies, with a strong profit and responsibility to the shareholder. they are very averse to controversy that could impact ratings (which continue to secularly decline).
yes, ironically they have really hurt themselves with the core audience for news — engaged white people — this time. i won’t be surprised if they put Kimmel back up but make him deliver some embarrassing apologetic monologue to try to appease Trump. (That won’t work)
Great post. But, I'm increasingly skeptical about free and fair elections being allowed or if allowed accepted in 2026 or 2028. Considering 2020, the more aggressive 2nd term and the fully sycophantic supporting cast. If your enemy are considered to be vermin, then why would you let them get elected?
I think it’s pretty obvious that Trump will do everything in his power to tilt the midterms in his favor. Partisan gerrymandering is a type of cheating. But there are many aspects of election administration that are *not* in Trump’s power, and federal and state courts have been much better about holding him accountable (esp. relative to SCOTUS). So maybe I’m just a tad more optimistic than others here.
I’m not unconcerned, but keep in mind that there are loads of people who are neither in MAGA or opposed to MAGA. The administration seems to want to abuse power in ways that are against either unpopular targets or they can hide behind a pretense.
They haven’t overtly violated court orders. They backed down from sending the national guard to Chicago. They didn’t even fire Powell although in that case the fear is probably about financial markets not of popular opposition.
I maintain that Trump has already reached peak power and his losses will continue to pile up. That will unfortunately also make him more dangerous in the short-term - including possibly going all in on trying to cheat on the midterms.
So yeah, a concern, but something that the best preparation for is to keep organizing and talking to people so that too many people are looking forward to voting for Democrats in the midterms and won’t tolerate shenanigans.
I think you're overly optimistic.
"A conservative election researcher whose faulty findings on voter data were cited by President Donald Trump as he tried to overturn his 2020 election loss has been appointed to an election integrity role at the U.S. Department of Homeland Security. The political appointment, first reported by Democracy Docket, shows how self-styled election investigators who have thrown themselves into election conspiracy theories since 2020 are now being celebrated by a presidential administration that indulges their false claims.
Her new role, which didn’t exist under President Joe Biden, also comes as Trump has used election integrity concerns as a pretext to try to give his administration power over how elections are run in the U.S.
The president has ordered sweeping changes to election processes and vowed to do away with mail ballots and voting machines to promote “honesty” in the 2026 midterms, despite a lack of constitutional authority to do so. Trump’s Department of Justice also has demanded complete state voter lists, raising concerns about voter privacy and questions about how the federal government plans to use the sensitive data."
Associated Press article: "Researcher who has distorted voter data appointed to Homeland Security election integrity role.", Aug. 25.
Haven’t most states refused to cooperate with the requests for voting lists?
It is very possible that I am overly optimistic.
Appointing a lunatic to head an “election integrity” role isn’t good. But he already had Bondi and Patel and masked ICE agents running around.
The administration needs to be resisted and blocked whenever legally possible and their actions contested in national, local, and social media.
I do not think it helps to focus on what Trump might do unless it is connected to actions he’s taken know. So thanks for reminding me and anyone reading that Homeland making unconstitutional requests that would make it easier for them to mess with the midterms.
That said, the best and most important way to stop the administration is to convince more Iowans, Texans, Ohioans, particularly, and Americans generally that Republicans are bad for the economy, affordability, and their quality of life, and that Democrats will fight to help the economy grow and be fairer for working people.
They are involved in something like 100 lawsuits just since trump took office
because they have violated court orders. on deportations, illegal tariffs, illegal firings, invasion of California to name a few.
Actually, Democratic state attorneys general, cities, states, and trade unions, per tabulations by the group Just Security, have filed 384 cases through August 28. Some 130 have led to court orders blocking at least part of Trump’s moves, and another 148 cases are pending.
Also, Dem AGs have been meeting daily and were working on plans before the election.
https://www.politico.com/news/2025/02/27/democrats-taking-trump-musk-winning-00206310
The 100 lawsuits since just took office are mostly because they have violated laws, regulations or the Constitution. And when they lose they immediately appeal. And if they lose again, they appeal to the Supreme Court. The Supreme Court continually using their emergency docket to stay rulings against the administration.
But when push comes to shove, they have mostly backed done when the courts have thwarted them. (Sometimes the damage is already done and irreparable, ie destruction of USAID. Sometimes they’ve gotten Congress to cover them after the fact ie the budget rescissions) They clearly example of this is returning Abrigo Garcia who they had said would never set foot in the US again.
On CA, they successfully stayed the first decision, so that they had time to defend their appeal of the initial decision.
The tariff decision will go before the Supreme Court.
I’m not arguing that the administration’s actions aren’t wrong, aren’t illegal, aren’t unconstitutional. I am arguing that they have always cloaked them in some pretense of legitimacy. And because either the victims are unpopular or the law is complicated, they have mostly avoided antagonizing the unaffiliated and the cynical. And I suspect that they want to keep a pretense of legality and legitimacy with whatever they try during the midterm elections. It will be hard to for example stop all voting in Atlanta, Houston, and Cleveland to ensure the Senate doesn’t flip. But maybe slowing things down with the help of Republican governors. That is likely to happen.
You might want to take another look at the YouGov polls. The percentage of people who disapprove of what happened is higher and less divided.
In addition, there has been backlash against the move to the point of boycotts and protests.
The potentially hopeful thing here to consider with regard to free speech is that, while he appears to be going after all media, it's certainly harder to do so online because it's
A. Decentralized
B. Much less regulated than legacy media (weird case where Republicans pursuing deregulation hurts them lol)
I'm not saying that they won't be successful on this too, but it has to be acknowledged that it won't be as easy as the FCC placing a call to Bob Iger.