Iowans vote in two weeks. Will the GOP primary end there?

Given his lead now, Trump losing the nomination would be one of the most surprising political outcomes ever

If the polls are perfect (they won’t be!) and they don’t move at all over the next 14 days (they could!) then Donald Trump should end up winning the Iowa Republican Caucus about 30 percentage points; Currently, my polling average for 538 has him at 50% of the vote, versus 18% for Ron DeSantis and 16% for Nikki Haley:

Two weeks ago, when we were merely 4 weeks out from Iowa, I wrote the following for ABC News/538:

According to 538's average of national polls, as of Dec. 15, former President Donald Trump leads the primary race with 61 percent. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley are essentially tied for second at 12 percent and 11 percent, respectively. Trump also leads by at least 25 percentage points in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina. And when you consider Trump's wide lead alongside how little time remains until voting actually begins, he now looks almost inevitable. Unless a historically unforeseen event happens, Trump is overwhelmingly likely to b…