Iowans vote in two weeks. Will the GOP primary end there?

Given his lead now, Trump losing the nomination would be one of the most surprising political outcomes ever

Jan 02, 2024

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If the polls are perfect (they won’t be!) and they don’t move at all over the next 14 days (they could!) then Donald Trump should end up winning the Iowa Republican Caucus about 30 percentage points; Currently, my polling average for 538 has him at 50% of the vote, versus 18% for Ron DeSantis and 16% for Nikki Haley:

Two weeks ago, when we were merely 4 …

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