Is Trump’s electoral-college advantage slipping?

Midwestern voters have been just barely more likely than the average American to sour on the president recently

The electoral college is an anti-majoritarian institution that enshrines America’s history of slavery, gives small but durable advantages to candidates who poll better in exurban and rural areas and disproportionately magnifies the voices of people who just so happen to live in close states.

In 2016, this unique and antiquated mode of electing presidents delivered Donald Trump the presidency even though he lost the popular vote. But the advantage does not always flow to Republicans. In 2008 and 2012, Barack Obama actually could have won the electoral college with a popular-vote minority.

Who will the electoral college favor this time around? So far, it has seemed like the patterns of the 2016 election would hold. Back then, Trump won Wisconsin, the “tipping-point” state, with a two-party vote share about 1.5% below his national vote share, or a difference in his raw vote margin just about 3 points (he lost by 2 points nationally but won by one in Wisconsin).

We can quantify Trump’s ele…