Polls may be overestimating support for third-party candidates
Early strength for independents like Robert F Kennedy Jr is likely a mirage
The polls suggest that about 20% of Americans, on average, would support a third-party candidate for president if the election were held today. The average at RealClearPolitics — which I usually don’t recommend using but, in this case, is the only option (for now) — has Trump at 39% Biden at 36, Robert F Kennedy at 16 and Cornel West at 4. That would be the best showing for third-party candidates since 1992 when Ross Perot won 18.9% of the popular vote for president. But in our new era of high partisan polarization, is such a feat really possible? Do we buy these polls?
I can make two caveats right off the bat:
Polls today may not be reliably capturing vote intention for a variety of reasons. One theory is that partisans upset with their choices are saying they’d vote for a third-party candidate as a way to register their opposition to their party leaders, but wouldn’t really vote for them in reality.
It’s 305 days before the election, so don’t take results too seriously! (See chart belo…
