Last week in political data: Gallup immigration polling; Majority support for Mamdani's policies; First U.S. House midterms forecast; And what Trump's win has in common with Canada and London
Interesting that the 2017 bill and the 2024 tax bill poll about the same. The 2017 bill and the Trump economy ended up being pretty popular. Enough that they decided to renew it in 2024.
“Free shit I can’t lay for” is always going to poll well. All of that spending Biden did polled really well but the inflation it cause led didn’t.
Public opinion doesn't always drive political action. Think assault weapon control. The media and many other institutions are unwilling to support or even discuss any issue that might offend our golden leader.
Trump won about half of the Hispanic voters in 2024, and that group accounted for 10% of his votes. You/Gov polling of Hispanics, between June 2 and July 7, shows a 12 point drop in his approval and a 16 point drop in his handling of immigration.
If this shift carries over to Republicans in the midterms, could be even worse for them than it looks now.
Americans have not “moved left” on immigration. They have basically just returned to the baseline prior to the Biden-era migration surge. And they are able to express more optimism about immigration because of the effectiveness of Trump’s policies. Americans can afford to be less anxious about the border because illegal crossings are at a low not seen in decades.
Thanks for the numbers and analysis! I think it might be time to stop using terms like left/right to describe policy stance, however. I feel like both parties are unmoored enough in governing ideology and dependent on populist movement that they cannot foundationally claim what is a left vs. right ideal anymore. I noticed the Gallup poll does not use left/right terms in its questions. It might be time to drop the terms in analysis, to bring back focus to policy instead of sides. Just a thought!
Interesting that the 2017 bill and the 2024 tax bill poll about the same. The 2017 bill and the Trump economy ended up being pretty popular. Enough that they decided to renew it in 2024.
“Free shit I can’t lay for” is always going to poll well. All of that spending Biden did polled really well but the inflation it cause led didn’t.
Public opinion doesn't always drive political action. Think assault weapon control. The media and many other institutions are unwilling to support or even discuss any issue that might offend our golden leader.
Trump won about half of the Hispanic voters in 2024, and that group accounted for 10% of his votes. You/Gov polling of Hispanics, between June 2 and July 7, shows a 12 point drop in his approval and a 16 point drop in his handling of immigration.
If this shift carries over to Republicans in the midterms, could be even worse for them than it looks now.
Don't forget we are an autocracy now. The next election will not be politics as usual.
Americans have not “moved left” on immigration. They have basically just returned to the baseline prior to the Biden-era migration surge. And they are able to express more optimism about immigration because of the effectiveness of Trump’s policies. Americans can afford to be less anxious about the border because illegal crossings are at a low not seen in decades.
https://theironfairy.substack.com/p/dissecting-gallups-new-immigration?r=lmivp
Thanks for the numbers and analysis! I think it might be time to stop using terms like left/right to describe policy stance, however. I feel like both parties are unmoored enough in governing ideology and dependent on populist movement that they cannot foundationally claim what is a left vs. right ideal anymore. I noticed the Gallup poll does not use left/right terms in its questions. It might be time to drop the terms in analysis, to bring back focus to policy instead of sides. Just a thought!