great write-up on everything! this kind of analysis makes me proud to be a subscriber, hopefully others will sign-up too so you can do more stuff in the coming year!
We really need to refine our definitions of "social democracies" vs. "socialism" in its purest form, in which "the people control the means of production".
My son-in-law is Danish, and his father is Icelandic, and he and my daughter live in Sweden, and so I have had many interesting conversations about these topics.
Basically, a social democracy adheres to capitalism in their economies, but they also have strong social safety nets, universal healthcare, higher taxes on the wealthy, and less income inequality (homeless people are vanishingly rare).
I think the U.S. could learn a lot from the Nordic countries, which consistently rate at the top of the "happiness" scale.
Perhaps Mr. Morris could aggregate some comparative data to enlighten our hardcore capitalists/oligarchs as well as the rest of us on the cost/benefit ratios of each system.
*I very much admire Mr. Morris's work, especially for as young as he is (the same age as my youngest child).
Am I reading this right? There were two counties in GA that swung more than 40 points from last year? One Trump+30 to D+15ish and one Trump+15 to D+35?
1. What is up with Emerson? Not an R-aligned pollster, but often seems to get results pretty close to those of R-aligned pollsters.
2. Any theories on why the generic ballot is still just D+3 despite Trump's unpopularity and Dems' actual electoral overperformance? Republicans led by more in the 2010 and 2014 cycles at times when Obama's net approval was a lot higher than Trump's.
Emerson has the big problem that it’s a university pollster with a shoestring budget and has to cut corners with really strong weighting. They rely on some let’s say noisy data providers for phone numbers and online panelists, and also weighted to 2024 turnout which probably hurt them
Hi Elliott, A fantastic analysis. Particularly interested in the detailed consideration of the opinion polls and why some were off. Now looking forward to future Special Elections and the Mid Terms. I look forward to continuing to read SIN and 50+1 to understand how things are progressing. Very grateful for your objective, empirical analysis Elliott, far more informative than the chattering of the expert panels.
Curious if voters had split their ticket more often in 2024 if that would have impacted these elections (save Trump from himself a bit with congressional checks).
I think Elliott is of the view people believed Trump on prices, not just that Trump would perform better on the issue, but believed the actual promise of lowering prices as something the president does (could be wrong going off of memory of a tweet?). Kind of think with less Trump he receives less blame for this being his economy but maybe it's still a "Republican" one?
Totally off subject, but there’s a DC area pop punk cover band called the seven deadlies, and your username reminded me of some good times in my earlier 20s
Can we really say that economy focused voters moved 93 points? These are not necessarily the same voters as in 2024. People’s views of the health of the economy (and this presumably their issue weightings of the economy relative to berthing else) are downstream of partisanship. This just seems like thermostatic politics.
Aren’t the TX & other Republican gerrymanders are based on 2024 results? I know it isn’t anything one should hang one’s hat on, but how might those districts look if one applies the results from last nights elections. Such as the shifts in black, hispanic & youth votes. And what you think the national D+ really is.
My understanding is that there's a real chance of Republicans getting a seat or two less out of the gerrymander than they want in 2026. Not a "dummymander" by any stretch, but also not a guaranteed +5.
great write-up on everything! this kind of analysis makes me proud to be a subscriber, hopefully others will sign-up too so you can do more stuff in the coming year!
"And a socialist is now mayor of New York City."
We really need to refine our definitions of "social democracies" vs. "socialism" in its purest form, in which "the people control the means of production".
My son-in-law is Danish, and his father is Icelandic, and he and my daughter live in Sweden, and so I have had many interesting conversations about these topics.
Basically, a social democracy adheres to capitalism in their economies, but they also have strong social safety nets, universal healthcare, higher taxes on the wealthy, and less income inequality (homeless people are vanishingly rare).
I think the U.S. could learn a lot from the Nordic countries, which consistently rate at the top of the "happiness" scale.
Perhaps Mr. Morris could aggregate some comparative data to enlighten our hardcore capitalists/oligarchs as well as the rest of us on the cost/benefit ratios of each system.
*I very much admire Mr. Morris's work, especially for as young as he is (the same age as my youngest child).
Am I reading this right? There were two counties in GA that swung more than 40 points from last year? One Trump+30 to D+15ish and one Trump+15 to D+35?
Two questions:
1. What is up with Emerson? Not an R-aligned pollster, but often seems to get results pretty close to those of R-aligned pollsters.
2. Any theories on why the generic ballot is still just D+3 despite Trump's unpopularity and Dems' actual electoral overperformance? Republicans led by more in the 2010 and 2014 cycles at times when Obama's net approval was a lot higher than Trump's.
Emerson has the big problem that it’s a university pollster with a shoestring budget and has to cut corners with really strong weighting. They rely on some let’s say noisy data providers for phone numbers and online panelists, and also weighted to 2024 turnout which probably hurt them
Hi Elliott, A fantastic analysis. Particularly interested in the detailed consideration of the opinion polls and why some were off. Now looking forward to future Special Elections and the Mid Terms. I look forward to continuing to read SIN and 50+1 to understand how things are progressing. Very grateful for your objective, empirical analysis Elliott, far more informative than the chattering of the expert panels.
Curious if voters had split their ticket more often in 2024 if that would have impacted these elections (save Trump from himself a bit with congressional checks).
I think Elliott is of the view people believed Trump on prices, not just that Trump would perform better on the issue, but believed the actual promise of lowering prices as something the president does (could be wrong going off of memory of a tweet?). Kind of think with less Trump he receives less blame for this being his economy but maybe it's still a "Republican" one?
Totally off subject, but there’s a DC area pop punk cover band called the seven deadlies, and your username reminded me of some good times in my earlier 20s
It's actually a music reference lol, just a different one (MMW, tonic)
Can we really say that economy focused voters moved 93 points? These are not necessarily the same voters as in 2024. People’s views of the health of the economy (and this presumably their issue weightings of the economy relative to berthing else) are downstream of partisanship. This just seems like thermostatic politics.
Aren’t the TX & other Republican gerrymanders are based on 2024 results? I know it isn’t anything one should hang one’s hat on, but how might those districts look if one applies the results from last nights elections. Such as the shifts in black, hispanic & youth votes. And what you think the national D+ really is.
If I recall correctly, a lot of those seats in TX rely on the 2024 gains the GOP made in Hispanic voters to be durable. If they're not? Watch out.
My understanding is that there's a real chance of Republicans getting a seat or two less out of the gerrymander than they want in 2026. Not a "dummymander" by any stretch, but also not a guaranteed +5.