The 2022 midterms were decided on November 3, 2020 | No. 184 – February 20, 2022

(OK, I guess technically the right date is November 7th — when the presidential election was called by the news networks)

Several recent #hottakes (and some actually good articles!) have got me thinking about midterm elections again.

I have seen claims that mask mandates are powering a “revolution” against the Democrats, who are actively “woke-ing themselves” out of their seats. For their part, the left seems to be arguing that they should pass big policies that fund social programs and safety nets — at best, the rationality goes, this could win them extra votes from working-class white Americans; at worst it would help a lot of people. And there were several articles last week arguing that the Democratic brand has grown so toxic in rural areas that the party faces “extinction” outside of the cities.

But when it comes to midterms, all of these explanations are missing something crucial about voter behavior. Political science tells us that the outcome of the 2022 midterms was effectively decided on November 3, 2020, when Democrats won control of the White House.

What you missed in political science class

Fir…