The electoral link in support for impeaching Trump
Democrats in safer districts are more likely to support impeachment hearings
How I feel when long-standing theories in political science hold up today
The Takeaway: Democrats in safer districts are more likely to support impeaching the president. Who could have known? I’m being sarcastic, of course. David Mayhew, one of the most famous Congress scholars, wrote way back in 1974 that congresspeople are less likely to take controversial positions when they are more electorally vulnerable. Since they are “single-minded seekers of re-election”, then the calculus conflict = fewer votes means a lot to them. House Democrats are apparently making this calculus today, yet the crowd favoring impeachment continues to grow.
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Allan Keiter over at 270toWin sent me a dataset of impeachment support and past voting data and it is an enlightening gold mine. At present, 114 Democrats support beginning hearings for Donald Trump. After crunching the numbers, it looks like those in safer district’s are more likely to support the hearings, as shown below:
If the pace keeps up, it’s only a matter of time before the ones near the middle and end get on board. Perry Bacon Jr. has a good article explaining why (beyond the data here) at FiveThirtyEight today.
Maybe I was wrong last week when I said Mueller’s testimonies didn’t significantly increase the odds of impeachment. Maybe he did reveal something that made these members more likely to jump into the impeachment column. Still, I’m not sure what that is—and the markets still don’t quite agree with that hypothesis. The odds of Trump’s impeachment are still lower today than they were on the eve of Mueller’s statements, as shown here:
Still, there is a clear link between electoral vulnerability and support for impeaching Trump. Not many Democrats in vulnerable districts are publicly supporting more investigations right now. But the tide may be turning. And even before it does, if it does, there are quite a few more Democrats who will likely to flip to supporting impeachment.