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Elliot's avatar

Hi Elliott,

The idea that Democrats could defy historical patterns and hold onto the House and the Senate seems pretty crazy to me, but that appears to be a real possibility. I was pretty skeptical of Democrats' chances for the midterms after 2020, but circumstances change.

BTW, did you end up naming your puppy: Maple, or Bagel?

I hope all is well,

Elliot

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G. Elliott Morris's avatar

Hi Elliot,

I’ve been thinking of this in terms of our models’ error terms. Is there a story that I can use to talk me into a year where Dems lose 3 seats or less instead of 28 (which is the average for midterms since 1934)? I’m not sure. I can talk myself into 15, or even 10. Coincidentally that’s where the models appear to be right now.

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