When I first registered as a voter, more than 50 years ago, it was important to pick a party because if you did not do so you were unable to vote in the primaries of your preferred party, and I wanted to do so. Although I haven't researched the matter, it is my impression that more and more states are allowing independents to vote in primaries. If so, it is optimal NOT to state a party affiliation, because that way you can choose which party's primary you will vote in. If I'm correct about this, it may be one of the main reasons for the move away from party affiliations. Does anyone know whether I'm correct about this?
By midterms I think the party names are just a formality pushing the illusion that everything is normal.
In reality we’ll only have two choices as voters:
Pro-government that we pay for working FOR the people?
Pro-Trump government that we pay for weaponized AGAINST the people?
I don’t understand how voters can’t see that this is it.
And Democrats need to minimize and unify their messaging. Stop sounding like programmed politicians and start sounding like battlefield commanders! We have to unify people from the far left, moderates, independents, to constitutional conservatives IF we want to win in 2026. What’s equally important to everyone in these groups?
A good economy
Lower Inflation
Constitutional rights and freedoms.
Veterans benefits
Medicare for our parents
The country being safe from attack.
Prescription drug prices….
Not sure why Dems are struggling so with their messaging.
What's frustrating to me is Democrats losing at voter registration despite our supposed advantage in door-to-door getting out the vote and other grassroots activities. We actually did better (in 2020) when we couldn't go door-to-door because of the pandemic. I'm wondering if personal outreach works in an age when the mass media are so powerful.
But aren't most independents independent in name only? It has been my understanding that the majority of those who identify as "independent" are leaners. They lean Democratic or they lean Republican. How many voters are true independents?
"If you ask me, this is a trend worth diving into as well. The most common party registration in America is not with either of the two major parties, but explicitly against them both. Democrats should be worried about their recent political headwinds, but Republicans should be thinking about their shrinking position as well. The act of registering against both major parties reveals something about the psychology of the public. A deep sense of frustration with politics is leading to a systematic shedding of major-party political identities in voters’ psyches, and a growing appetite for minor-party candidates."
Elliott, this is very important, because it links to what is happening in other advanced-economy democracies, and indicates that some of the pro-majoritarian institutional changes being proposed -- proportional representation system, fewer veto points -- would not necessarily improve the situation much.
Many countries have shifted from a bimodal distribution organized around center-left and center-right parties -- call them "social democratic" and "Christian democratic" -- to a more uniform distribution with fatter tails that are increasingly empowering the extreme parties/candidates. This is true in winner-take-all and proportional-representation systems, in ranked-choice voting systems (e.g., Mamdani), in deliberative systems (e.g., Sanders doing better in caucuses than voting primaries), etc.
I.e., to the extent this is a problem I am not sure it can be fixed institutionally. It has to be fixed politically, by building new political coalitions organized around new sets of mass values than those inherited from the Cold War. (Either that or re-create the Cold War to better-fit the existing party structures, I guess, which is kinda what we're currently doing.)
The central political problem facing elected representatives is that voters have refused to form a consensus, and have also started punishing compromise. I.e., the demands from voters have increased significantly, in opposed directions, and they have not tasked politicians with the political capital with which to make change.
Is it really so surprising authoritarianism is on the rise in some many places? People have maximalist goals, get impatient, look for ways to "cut through the gridlock".
Registration between 2020 and 2024? Well, at that time Biden was President. So many people registered Republican to prevent Trump from winning the primary, maybe?
“The act of registering against both major parties reveals something about the psychology of the public.”
I’m 70 and have voted Democratic all my life. Same with my parents.* Were a new voter to ask my advice on which party to support, I could easily explain why they shouldn’t be a Republican. It would be a lot harder to explain why they should be a Democrat.
* Mom voted for Eisenhower in 1952. This was a (humorous) sore spot with Dad for the next 46 years.
When I decided, nearly 40 years ago, to leave the Republican party into which I was born, I initially saw myself as an Independent. However, I noted that I was voting for Democrats because they articulated my values. In addition, I wanted to vote in the primaries, which were closed in the states in which I have lived. It was a major surprise to the Hillary Clinton campaign in the Texas city in which I lived that so many of us in support of Barack Obama showed up for the primary/caucus. They were expecting a cake walk. So, sometimes a party gets changed from within.
A sister who lives in California was registered as Independent for years but finally switched her registration to Democrat because, like me, she was voting for Democrats all the time.
⬆️"In North Carolina, the breakdown of new voters was 51.2% no party/other, 27.2% Republican, and 21.6% Democrat."
I'm a North Carolina resident (and voter) who is involved with several groups doing voter registration. The Democratic party has been doing very litle voter registration itself, leaving it to nonpartisan groups like League of Women Voters (www.lwv.org), Indivisible (www.indivisible.org) and (in NC) You Can Vote (www.youcanvote.org).
Volunteers with these groups are cautioned NOT to advocate for a specific party registration, so we usually leave it at saying that party registration is optional and that if you don't check a box you will automatically be listing as unaffiliated. Then we explain that since NC has a semi-closed primary system, people registered as unaffiliated can still vote in primaries by selecting one party's ballot when they check in at the polling place.
Finally, voter registration is considered a public record and in NC you need very little information to look up someone's registration data. Unless they have a very common name, their name and county of residence will do it. So it would be prudent to register as unaffiliated for any young person more progressive than their families and/or their community.
Is it any wonder that the majority of new registrants don't select a party in NC?
The fact that voters are staying home is far more concerning to me than that more new registrants are registering as Republican than Democrat when they do pick a party when they register.
Interesting. Is it also possible that listing one's party as Democrat enables the Republicans court attempts to disenfranchise voters when the Republicans do not like the outcome of an election--say a state Supreme Court judge's election? Does listing a party also make it easier for Republicans (and sometimes Democrats) to gerrymander?
How will the rise in independents affect the votes in primaries for a lot of offices in the states that have closed primaries (either statutorily or by party choice)? Or will it not matter because only committed partisans vote in primaries and these probably have not changed their registration?
I'm thinking here of the scores of people who told canvassers (esp in PA) how angry they were that it went from Biden to Harris without any primaries.
Also interesting to think of what Mamdani did in NY (closed primary state) with registering tons of new voters so that they can vote in the primary.
When I first registered as a voter, more than 50 years ago, it was important to pick a party because if you did not do so you were unable to vote in the primaries of your preferred party, and I wanted to do so. Although I haven't researched the matter, it is my impression that more and more states are allowing independents to vote in primaries. If so, it is optimal NOT to state a party affiliation, because that way you can choose which party's primary you will vote in. If I'm correct about this, it may be one of the main reasons for the move away from party affiliations. Does anyone know whether I'm correct about this?
By midterms I think the party names are just a formality pushing the illusion that everything is normal.
In reality we’ll only have two choices as voters:
Pro-government that we pay for working FOR the people?
Pro-Trump government that we pay for weaponized AGAINST the people?
I don’t understand how voters can’t see that this is it.
And Democrats need to minimize and unify their messaging. Stop sounding like programmed politicians and start sounding like battlefield commanders! We have to unify people from the far left, moderates, independents, to constitutional conservatives IF we want to win in 2026. What’s equally important to everyone in these groups?
A good economy
Lower Inflation
Constitutional rights and freedoms.
Veterans benefits
Medicare for our parents
The country being safe from attack.
Prescription drug prices….
Not sure why Dems are struggling so with their messaging.
What's frustrating to me is Democrats losing at voter registration despite our supposed advantage in door-to-door getting out the vote and other grassroots activities. We actually did better (in 2020) when we couldn't go door-to-door because of the pandemic. I'm wondering if personal outreach works in an age when the mass media are so powerful.
But aren't most independents independent in name only? It has been my understanding that the majority of those who identify as "independent" are leaners. They lean Democratic or they lean Republican. How many voters are true independents?
"If you ask me, this is a trend worth diving into as well. The most common party registration in America is not with either of the two major parties, but explicitly against them both. Democrats should be worried about their recent political headwinds, but Republicans should be thinking about their shrinking position as well. The act of registering against both major parties reveals something about the psychology of the public. A deep sense of frustration with politics is leading to a systematic shedding of major-party political identities in voters’ psyches, and a growing appetite for minor-party candidates."
Elliott, this is very important, because it links to what is happening in other advanced-economy democracies, and indicates that some of the pro-majoritarian institutional changes being proposed -- proportional representation system, fewer veto points -- would not necessarily improve the situation much.
Many countries have shifted from a bimodal distribution organized around center-left and center-right parties -- call them "social democratic" and "Christian democratic" -- to a more uniform distribution with fatter tails that are increasingly empowering the extreme parties/candidates. This is true in winner-take-all and proportional-representation systems, in ranked-choice voting systems (e.g., Mamdani), in deliberative systems (e.g., Sanders doing better in caucuses than voting primaries), etc.
I.e., to the extent this is a problem I am not sure it can be fixed institutionally. It has to be fixed politically, by building new political coalitions organized around new sets of mass values than those inherited from the Cold War. (Either that or re-create the Cold War to better-fit the existing party structures, I guess, which is kinda what we're currently doing.)
The central political problem facing elected representatives is that voters have refused to form a consensus, and have also started punishing compromise. I.e., the demands from voters have increased significantly, in opposed directions, and they have not tasked politicians with the political capital with which to make change.
Is it really so surprising authoritarianism is on the rise in some many places? People have maximalist goals, get impatient, look for ways to "cut through the gridlock".
It is a perennial topic, but it seems particularly relevant right now.
What party dominates where in an overlap with actual crime statistics versus with perceived crime?
Registration between 2020 and 2024? Well, at that time Biden was President. So many people registered Republican to prevent Trump from winning the primary, maybe?
“The act of registering against both major parties reveals something about the psychology of the public.”
I’m 70 and have voted Democratic all my life. Same with my parents.* Were a new voter to ask my advice on which party to support, I could easily explain why they shouldn’t be a Republican. It would be a lot harder to explain why they should be a Democrat.
* Mom voted for Eisenhower in 1952. This was a (humorous) sore spot with Dad for the next 46 years.
When I decided, nearly 40 years ago, to leave the Republican party into which I was born, I initially saw myself as an Independent. However, I noted that I was voting for Democrats because they articulated my values. In addition, I wanted to vote in the primaries, which were closed in the states in which I have lived. It was a major surprise to the Hillary Clinton campaign in the Texas city in which I lived that so many of us in support of Barack Obama showed up for the primary/caucus. They were expecting a cake walk. So, sometimes a party gets changed from within.
A sister who lives in California was registered as Independent for years but finally switched her registration to Democrat because, like me, she was voting for Democrats all the time.
⬆️"In North Carolina, the breakdown of new voters was 51.2% no party/other, 27.2% Republican, and 21.6% Democrat."
I'm a North Carolina resident (and voter) who is involved with several groups doing voter registration. The Democratic party has been doing very litle voter registration itself, leaving it to nonpartisan groups like League of Women Voters (www.lwv.org), Indivisible (www.indivisible.org) and (in NC) You Can Vote (www.youcanvote.org).
Volunteers with these groups are cautioned NOT to advocate for a specific party registration, so we usually leave it at saying that party registration is optional and that if you don't check a box you will automatically be listing as unaffiliated. Then we explain that since NC has a semi-closed primary system, people registered as unaffiliated can still vote in primaries by selecting one party's ballot when they check in at the polling place.
Finally, voter registration is considered a public record and in NC you need very little information to look up someone's registration data. Unless they have a very common name, their name and county of residence will do it. So it would be prudent to register as unaffiliated for any young person more progressive than their families and/or their community.
Is it any wonder that the majority of new registrants don't select a party in NC?
The fact that voters are staying home is far more concerning to me than that more new registrants are registering as Republican than Democrat when they do pick a party when they register.
Interesting. Is it also possible that listing one's party as Democrat enables the Republicans court attempts to disenfranchise voters when the Republicans do not like the outcome of an election--say a state Supreme Court judge's election? Does listing a party also make it easier for Republicans (and sometimes Democrats) to gerrymander?
Any thoughts on the two polls cited in the Wall Street Journal, showing weakening support for Trump among Hispanic voters?
https://unidosus.org/hispanicvote/polling-issues/
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-approval-holds-40-lowest-level-his-term-reutersipsos-poll-finds-2025-08-18/
How will the rise in independents affect the votes in primaries for a lot of offices in the states that have closed primaries (either statutorily or by party choice)? Or will it not matter because only committed partisans vote in primaries and these probably have not changed their registration?
I'm thinking here of the scores of people who told canvassers (esp in PA) how angry they were that it went from Biden to Harris without any primaries.
Also interesting to think of what Mamdani did in NY (closed primary state) with registering tons of new voters so that they can vote in the primary.
Thanks for writing about this