The New York Times is wrong about the electoral value of moderation | Weekly roundup for October 26, 2025

The paper's arguments hinge on several methodological flaws, and it dismisses valid empirical alternatives. Plus: Gerrymandering, and the Republicans' lost lead on economics

Dear readers,

This week’s lead note touches on a big New York Times article published on Monday, Oct. 20, in which the paper argues moderate candidates for Congress meaningfully outperform non-moderate candidates (On the order of 4 percentage points). Given that this Substack is devoted to seeing what we can (and cannot!) learn about politics using data, I have a couple of reactions to this piece. The Times also criticizes my own earlier analyses on this topic, so I think it’s only fair that I get a response.

On deck this week: I’ll have results from our final pre-election Strength In Numbers/Verasight poll, and some meta commentary on phones, social media, and work — plus the usual Friday Chart of the Week.