The not-so-backlash "backlash" to Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
A liberal candidate's success in her home district provides ammo for this contrarian take
How liberals feel when progressives win elections close to home
The takeaway: Left-Liberal primary challengers are (already) doing better than you might expect given the narrative surrounding them. Their polarizing effects, some argue, spell their downfall. Writers have implied that they face poor electoral prospects because they poll poorly among Americans, or that the Democratic Party writ large has rejected their place in the coalition. But a progressive candidate for the District Attorney in Queens, New York—which makes up part of the congressional district represented by Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez—might be on the verge of unseating a more mainstream incumbent; the election was last night and the race is still too close to call. So are all those naysayers right? Probably not. I list a few reasons why.
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People love to hate on Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (AOC), the socialist representing New York’s 14th district in the US House. This is especially true on the right, but even members of her own party have disavowed her and frequently try to “rein her in”. Analysts argue that she represents a small part of the party that is unpopular, which is true, and powerless, which is untrue. Decision Desk HQ, an elections-reporting alternative to the Associated Press (full disclosure: I used to do election prediction work for DDHQ) reported on the race this morning:
31 year old public defender Tiffany Cabán leads Queens Borough President Melinda Katz by 1090 votes. The race is officially too close to call with roughly 3,000 provisional and absentee ballots to be counted starting next week. While it's possilbe for Katz to make up that deficit, hence the lack of a race call, it is an extremely uphill fight for her.
Cabán ran with the endorsements of Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY), Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT), and Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) on a criminal justice reform platform that includes, "ending cash bail, not prosecuting subway turnstile jumping, prosecuting the Immigration and Customs Enforcement agency, closing Rikers Island and decriminalizing sex work."
That does indeed sound like a “broader debate about what a post-Obama Democrat could and should look like”, per CNN’s Chris Cillizza, but it does not look so much like the trouble some have predicted for first-term representative AOC. The conservative “news’ (opinion) website IJR wrote last week that “a tiny percentage of voters in freshman firebrand Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s (D-N.Y.) district would back her reelection to office”, or so says a “new door-to-door survey undertaken by the Stop the AOC PAC” (which is probably not a methodologically sound poll, for what it’s worth).
If Cabán’s lead indicates anything for Ocasio-Cortez, whose district is made up partially voters in the same electoral district, she’s probably doing better than her critics would have you believe. The biggest missteps being made by some commentators are to assume that the national political winds mean anything for her. They do not. AOC occupies an uber-liberal district in Queens, New York and her cause might well earn electoral approval in a candidate she has herself endorsed (full results are due in July). AOC might not be completely safe for re-nomination, but certainly, the doomsayers have it wrong.