The (good) pollsters got the midterms right

Pundits who ignored the polls and predicted a "red wave" got burned

A day before the election, I published an article for The Economist titled “Why a Republican ripple is more likely than a red wave.” In it, I wrote about the paper’s polling averages and forecasting model. The data team saw a small GOP win as most likely in the House and a toss-up Senate race. This was all according to our analysis of the polls and fundamentals.

The Economist was not the only one to get this election mostly right. FiveThirtyEight did too; their models had Republicans winning 230 (+/-30) seats in the House and also saw a tight Senate race. Those look now to be a little optimistic for Republicans (especially on the House side), but the result will be well within their margin of error — with Republicans probably winning around 220 seats, though there are still votes left to count.

The performance of the forecasters this year is a stark contrast to their (our) 2020 projections, especially in the House. Then, FiveThirtyEight gave Democrats only about a 5% chance of winning …