The rest of 2026 at Strength In Numbers

An update on planned post-election analysis and polling on congressional priorities

Readers,

This newsletter has grown exponentially over the last couple of months, adding over 10,000 free readers and hundreds of paid members. If you are one of the Strength In Numbers OGs, please join me in welcoming all these new readers to the community! New paying members should come say hi on Discord.

Given the influx of new readers, and that I know you’re all hungry for wonky and actually accurate post-election analysis, I wanted to send a short update on what to expect from SIN over the next few weeks.

From looking at early data, I think a clear story is emerging about why Democrats won so big in last week’s midterms (the biggest House popular vote margin since 1974!). The explanation is a product of multiple forces (SIN team member David Nir calls it a “smorgasbord” election), not mono-causal despite the framing used by much of the media that styles itself as This Is The Thing that sunk the GOP. In several ways, the data is also actually contrary to the official narratives emerging among political professionals and DC insiders, which have, e.g., minimized the role of issues other than affordability and distracted from the large national wave by focusing on the relatively minor role of candidate “ideology.”

Following from that, Strength In Numbers will be publishing a series of eight(ish) articles on how Democrats won so large a victory in the 2026 midterms. Each piece will focus on one part of the story and draw on original data analysis, including the last 18 months of Strength In Numbers/Verasight polling data (one of the most accurate pollsters for 2026 in the national House vote!), the election results (duh) at the county and precinct levels, and voter file data from each state on who voted. I think the parceled-out approach is preferable to a large 10,000-word post nobody really wants to read all of, and the schedule also acts as a forcing mechanism for me to wait for final/new data before issuing takes on things that are in flux (e.g., turnout patterns: there is a lot of analysis out there that could just wait for the voter files!).

The series will start November 11, and run Tuesdays and Fridays next week and into early December. Most of the series will be for paying members. I will paywall partway down each piece so everyone gets something, but if you’re one of the new readers here and want the whole story, now’s the time to upgrade and support this work!

Finally, next week, I’ll also have results from our new November Strength In Numbers/Verasight poll, which we just finalized the questionnaire for. The poll asks voters what policies they want Congress to pass, whether they support impeaching and removing Trump from office, who they favor for the 2028 presidential primary, and which candidates they trust more on certain issues, among other issues. I will use a new approach to tracking vote intention for the primaries that uses open-ended responses (instead of giving respondents a list of 20 names to pick from! yuck).

Thanks, everyone, for reading Strength In Numbers. I am really excited about these projects, which will ideally be more accurate than the fast takes others are issuing that rely on noisy and faulty data (many of which are also extremely ideologically motivated).

So that’s what I’m working on. Welcome to all the new readers! More soon!

Elliott