The backlash against Trump is showing up in hard data, not just polls
New data on protest activity shows organized anti-Trump actions are 4x the size they were in the president's first term. Your weekly political data roundup for February 15, 2026.
Here’s your weekly roundup of new political data published over the last seven days. It is free to read. If you find it useful, the best way to support my work is to share it with a friend.
I spend most of my time in this publication writing about public opinion — what people think about Trump, the economy, immigration, the parties, why they vote, and so on. That naturally means I rely on a lot of polling data to point the way to the truth. But as you well know, polls are not perfect. So when other data come out that I can use to triangulate public sentiment — to validate (or invalidate) the polls — I try to highlight it in my Sunday newsletter.
This week, new data came out showing that anti-Trump protests are roughly four times as common as they were at the same point in his first term. The backlash isn’t just in the polls, it’s everywhere.
On deck here at Strength In Numbers: The Deep Dive will look at anti-system voters and why Trump’s appeal in 2024 went beyond the traditional left-right axis. There’s great new research out that adds to our understanding of what is essentially a fluke victory due to anti-incumbent bias. Due to the holiday on Monday, the Deep Dive will come out on Wednesday instead of the usual Tuesday,
Let’s dig into the data.
I. Evidence of Trump backlash beyond the polls
Political scientist Erica Chenoweth, who co-directs the Crowd Counting Consortium at Harvard, posted new data this week showing that anti-Trump protests are roughly four times as common as they were at the same point in his first term.
When I reported on the last CCC data back in October, there had been roughly 29,000 political protests or demonstrations held around the country since Trump’s second inauguration — compared to barely 8,000 in the equivalent period in 2017. At least 12.8 million Americans — about 3.7% of the population — had demonstrated against the president since January 2025, according to crowd-sourced estimates. The second “No Kings Day” protests in October alone drew an estimated 5-6 million participants, likely surpassing the 2017 Women’s March as the largest single-day political protest in American history.
The CCC, in their data update, confirms that protest activity is at least 4x as large in Trump’s second term as in his first, and it reports 10.3 million people have protested Trump since his inauguration. However, the group only counts reports from official sources, so it lacks data in about 60% of protests where there is no official source of participation available. If they had data everywhere, the total participation could be well over 15 million.
This all means the backlash against Trump that is being picked up in the polls isn’t a fluke. You don’t get ~10-15 million people to protest the government if you’re just reaching the kind of people who talk to a stranger about politics for half a hour, or call their congressperson every morning. The data on real-world activity suggests anti-Trump sentiment is significantly more potent than it was during his first term, and that this sentiment is mobilizing a strong grassroots movement of pro-democracy activists.
In this week’s podcast, David Nir and I also talked about signs of anti-Trump sentiment. The most striking data point is that low-political-knowledge, low-news-engagement voters — roughly 27% of the electorate — have swung from supporting Trump by 11 points in 2024 to disapproving of him by 13 points. These low-information people largely don’t consume political news directly, so their changing attitudes are a sign that the consequences of Trump’s presidency are a topic of conversation among normal people. We also talked about the ICE Watch activity in Minnesota, where communities in the Twin Cities have organized to monitor and resist federal immigration enforcement in their neighborhoods. This shows up in survey data, too.
Finally, special elections also pick up the same signals as the polls. According to The Downballot’s tracking, Democrats have performed an average of 13 points better than Kamala Harris did in elections for state legislative and congressional districts held in 2025 and 2026.
Put all this together, and you get a picture of an anti-Trump backlash that is broader, deeper, and more durable than the first time around. Multiple independent data sources all confirm the same finding: Americans are not on board with Trumpism, and evidently, they are willing to show that in protests and at the ballot box.
II. What Strength In Numbers published last week
Last Sunday’s roundup covered economic pessimism and the polls showing Americans blame Trump for making things worse.
Tuesday’s Deep Dive looked at what Democrats can actually learn from the meta-narrative about ideology and voting — and why the simple conventional wisdom about moving right is wrong. Not every vote is a referendum on politicians’ issue positions.
On Thursday, I published one of the most underappreciated stories in polling right now —that low-information voters have turned against Trump at 2x the rate of high-knowledge voters. The less you knew about politics, the more you liked Trump in 2024. That’s no longer the case.
Also on Thursday, the latest episode of the Strength In Numbers podcast with David Nir. We talked about how “normie” voters feel about Trump, ICE watch activity in Minnesota, Democratic messaging on the government shutdown, Gallup quitting approval polling, and the SAVE Act.
And Friday’s Chart of the Week argued that Democrats have the leverage in the government shutdown fight over ICE funding — and the polling backs them up.
If you’re a frequent reader of Strength In Numbers, I’m confident you will get a lot of value out of a paid subscription. You’ll get access to the Tuesday Deep Dives, the full podcast, the monthly SIN-Verasight poll, and more.
III. Even more numbers!
A phenomenal read by Henry Ferrell: “The Median Voter Theorem is a Clarity Trap”
The Downballot: Democrats just won a rural Louisiana House seat in a Trump+13 district by 24 points — a 37-point overperformance. Since Trump’s return, Democrats have flipped 26 state legislative seats. Republicans have flipped zero. Breaking: Democrats resoundingly defend red district in Louisiana, denying GOP its first pickup
Really thorough analysis from VoteHub on how Republicans in Congress voted almost uniformly with Trump in 2025 — and how party leadership had to twist arms to keep intraparty squabbles off the floor. Republicans in Congress voted in lockstep with Trump in 2025
The GOP began 2026 with more than double the cash of equivalent Democratic groups — $320 million vs $137 million. Add in Trump’s super PAC and it’s a $550 million edge. Republican Cash Edge Threatens to Swamp Democrats in the Midterms
After 88 years, Gallup is discontinuing its presidential approval tracking. We talked about this on the podcast — it’s a real loss for political data. Gallup Will No Longer Track Presidential Approval Ratings
Perry Bacon Jr. in TNR: Instead of chasing the median voter rightward, Democrats should try to change voters’ minds. Instead of Pandering, Democrats Should Try Changing Voters’ Minds
Yahoo/YouGov asked who “better represents America” — more Americans said Bad Bunny (42%) than Trump (39%). Among independents it’s 46-27. Poll: Who better represents America? More Americans say Bad Bunny than Trump.
AP-NORC: About 6 in 10 U.S. adults say Trump has “gone too far” in sending federal immigration agents into U.S. cities. What independents think of Trump’s recent immigration actions, according to a new AP-NORC poll
CBS News asked voters to describe each party in one word. The top pick for Democrats: “weak.” For Republicans: “extreme.” CBS News poll analysis on words voters pick to describe the Democratic and Republican parties
NPR ran focus groups with Biden-to-Trump swing voters in Arizona. 12 of the 14 swing voters they talked to immigration enforcement efforts under Trump had gone to far, and said ICE should be reformed. We observed 2 groups of swing voters in Arizona. They say ICE should be reformed
NBC finds a sizable majority wants significant changes to ICE: Americans support ICE overhaul amid federal funding fight
Trump’s net approval on the economy and immigration both hit second-term lows in the latest Economist/YouGov data (February 6-9). Immigration was supposed to be his strongest issue. Net approval of Donald Trump’s handling of the economy and immigration dip to second-term lows
Third Way digs into where young men stand ahead of the midterms. Worth a read if you’ve been following the gender gap story. Where Do Young Men Stand Ahead of the 2026 Midterms?
The University of Houston has an early look at the Texas Democratic Senate primary — Talarico has a higher don’t-know share but lower unfavorables than Crockett. Texas Democratic Primary poll
IV. Polling update
Trump’s net job approval is -19, with 38.5% approving and 57.3% disapproving — near his second-term floor.
The generic ballot is D+5, a new high, with Democrats at 46.9% and Republicans at 42.3%.
And that’s it for this week! Thanks for reading. Strength In Numbers will be back in your inbox on Wednesday!
Got more for next week? Email your links or add to the comments below!
Elliott
The more we understand Trump and Trumpism the more we realize he's reignited a class war in America. He's on a mission to turn America into an exclusive low tax mecca for the rich, privileged and entitled. All above the law while America's workers toil away to keep our society going; reminiscent of the 18th-19th century's plantation and industrial systems.
The GOOD news is that America is increasingly on to him and the GOP. Trump/MAGA is down 14% in its average approval ratings since Trump's inauguration. That equals 12,000,000 votes out of the 77,000,000 who mistakenly voted for the lying fascist rich boy and are now expressing remorse.
And in case you haven't heard, Trump's drop in popularity is who's fault? Biden if course. Why? Biden let 11 million illegal, criminals into the US forcing Trump to use harsh methods to build a police state to get them deported.
Funny how the GOP Budget numbers work. The $110 Billion the Trump/GOP has devoted to his ICE Gestapo secret police and prison camps is the amount of $s Americans need to refund our ACA healthcare subsidies.
The Constitution is coming for MAGA The people will win in Nov.
Any sense what percent of protest attendees live in swing states and did not vote for Harris in 2024? (anecdotal but I attended both the Women's March in 2017 and No Kings recently and attendance here in Boston was maybe 1/2 that of 2017).