Trump won affordability voters in 2024. Now he's losing them
20% of young, non-white, and lower-income Trump voters now say they disapprove of how he’s handling his job as president
The day after the 2024 presidential election, The Washington Post described Trump’s victory as “powered by a historic realignment of the American electorate” that “recast the Republican Party into a multiethnic, working-class party that appeals more to those on the lower than the upper end of the income scale.” Republican strategist Patrick Ruffini published a Substack post in mid-November titled “The Realignment Is Here“, echoing the new consensus among pundits and political operatives that President Trump had built a new coalition that would redefine American politics for a generation.
But what these triumphant voices failed to consider was the possibility that these new “Republican” voters wouldn’t stick around. The research I’ve done here on this Substack (and expand on in this piece) suggests Trump’s new young, non-white, and lower-income voters weren’t ideological converts, but rather mostly affordability-minded Americans punishing the incumbent party for a cost-of-living crisis. It was clear in 2024, clearer in 2025, and undeniable now that voters chose Trump not because they wanted Trumpism, but because they wanted cheaper groceries and higher social and economic mobility. Victory alone does not make a realignment.
In other words, Trump won in 2024 by “borrowing,” rather than “winning” affordability voters. According to pooled Strength In Numbers/Verasight surveys conducted from May 2025–Feb. 2026, about 1 in 6 Trump voters now disapprove of his job performance as president. The defections are concentrated precisely among the groups he gained most in 2024 — the ones that were heralded as evidence of a generational realignment for the GOP. Among 2024 voters who told us they voted for Trump, the young, non-white, and low-income members of Trump’s coalition are between 2 and 5 times more likely now to disapprove of his job performance than the Republicans The Washington Post characterized as the old GOP (elderly, rich, and white Americans).
This week’s Deep Dive looks at nearly a year of survey data on Trump’s borrowed coalition to check in with the views of key groups. By focusing on attitudes among Trump voters specifically in these demographic breakdowns — as well as by calculating 2024 vote, Trump’s approval and the generic ballot among all affordability voters — this piece adds fresh untapped data to our understanding of why Trump won in 2024 and how things are looking for 2026 — and ‘28.
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The groups Trump gained are the groups he’s losing
To measure how Trump’s 2024 coalition is holding up, I pooled nine months of Strength In Numbers/Verasight national surveys from May 2025 through Feb. 2026 and isolated respondents who said they voted for Trump in 2024.
