Trump is doomed! Biden is doomed! Trump is back on top! Wait...

Pump the breaks everyone. You have to take a holistic, long view of the data.

At some point I should actually look at the data, but I’ve noticed a particularly predictable pattern in my Twitter feed whereby posts about polls that favor Joe Biden get about a million and a half more retweets than those where Donald Trump is doing surprisingly well. Maybe that’s because the people I follow are mostly journalists and academics and lean left politically? There’s also this particularly annoying habit for some high-profile political journalists to emphasize every single ebb and flow of the data driving our forecasts, so it could be a news/traffic-interest thing. But I digress. The point is that if I’ve seen this, maybe y’all have too—and maybe that’s tilting our conversation about the election.

I certainly haven’t been shy to voice my bullishness on Joe Biden. I think the betting markets and most pundits are putting his chances of election far too low, for example, and I’ve said as much publicly. But I’m also usually careful to remind y’all that one poll is just that—…