Trump's 60% in primary polls could be more like 90% in delegate math

His leads pushes him just past most states' winner-takes-all delegate thresholds

Here is a short Friday notebook post. I hope you have a restful weekend before the storm. (I’m talking about Iowa, but here in DC we’re also expecting a nor'easter!)

Repeat after me: Donald Trump is the overwhelming favorite to win the 2024 Republican Party nomination for president. My polls-based model puts his odds somewhere around 95% - 99% to win. No…