As always, I find your data and analysis concisely and clearly presented. You're also right that the key political question is whether Ds can capitalize on this.
But will he bounce back? I've seen it so many times before like after Jan 6, where even Republican approval of Trump drops. But then he bounces back.
He does this by creating a dogma and punishing those who go against it publicly. As a reminder, 7 GOP senators voted to convict Trump after Jan 6 - what happened to them? Some have shut up and survived, others were censured and removed from the party. No one opposes Trump and remains in the Republican bubble. Even when it comes to creepy as fuck things like his relations with Epstein.
Our elections are being attacked with voter suppression laws in red states and new attempts at gerrymandering. We need to put all our efforts into stopping these tactics. There are many attorneys working to do just that. They need our support.
Check out Democracy Docket, and read the postings that Marc Elias puts out. He is one of the attorneys who is deeply involved in law suits fighting against the attack by the right on our voting rights.
Given that the midterm Senate elections are mostly fought in Republican territory, I would be very interested in seeing Trump’s approval rating from ‘24 Trump voters, independents, and Republicans. I don’t know if the polling samples have big enough sub-groups to do that. But it’s take frustration or cynicism or outright rejection from former Trump voters to flip Senate seats outside of Maine and maybe North Carolina.
So far, Democrats are being smart about how they use this issue. Calling for votes on it puts the Republicans on record as either supporting or blocking the release of the Epstein materials. So far, the Democrats have put Republican committee members on record as opposing it. Now, Representative Ro Khana (D) has partnered with Representative Thomas Massey (R) for a discharge petition that overrides Speaker Johnson to allow the House to vote on it. The earliest it could move to a vote, however, would be in September, when Republicans are hoping that interest in the Epstein matters will decline. Although Mike Johnson supposedly has called for the release of the materials (it's probably boxes and boxes of evidence that was examined in the investigation as to whether to bring charges), I suspect that he is holding up his finger to see which way the wind is blowing. If he truly wanted the files released, he would allow the vote now. We have seen this game before--apparent fractures, then reuniting against the Democrats, as they did when they kept the government open, and on the Big Brutal Bill and the recissions package.
Trump went into this term high on his own supply regarding immigration. I think if he had gone about it by actually removing criminals and actually deporting them to their home country, he could have won on this issue.
Now he's bringing up the OG Alcatraz again, he's determined to reopen it. A complete wreck, they would have to tear the old building down and rebuild. No roads, everything has to come by boat or helicopter. The expense alone would rival the cost of one of Elon's rockets blowing up.
There may be 110 days til the November election but there as the midterms are commonly thought of as the election midway through a presidential term when all house seats and 1/3 of senate seats are up for election we have to wait for November 2026 for midterms
What election is this? The midterms are in 2026, and we are still in 2025. In fact from July 18, 2025, which is today, to the midterms on November 3, 2026, there are 474 days.
A numbers guy should not make this kind of ARITHMETIC mistake.
Maybe the 2025 Election day (eg VA and NJ have gubernatorial elections this November?) But agree this isn’t the “midterm” date as that term is generally understood.
As always, I find your data and analysis concisely and clearly presented. You're also right that the key political question is whether Ds can capitalize on this.
But will he bounce back? I've seen it so many times before like after Jan 6, where even Republican approval of Trump drops. But then he bounces back.
He does this by creating a dogma and punishing those who go against it publicly. As a reminder, 7 GOP senators voted to convict Trump after Jan 6 - what happened to them? Some have shut up and survived, others were censured and removed from the party. No one opposes Trump and remains in the Republican bubble. Even when it comes to creepy as fuck things like his relations with Epstein.
#ReleaseTheFiles
Maga's are burning hats. It will be interesting to see what the next month looks like.
The influencers are burning hats in order to get "likes," which they need to stay as influencers.
Maga's are burning hats. It will be interesting to see what the next month looks like.
What is the possibility of an increased number of voters engaging in the electoral process?
My mind drifts back to 90+% voting in the Balkan countries post Stalin and the break up of Russian power.
I would bet that turnout is up in 2026 compared to 2022
Our elections are being attacked with voter suppression laws in red states and new attempts at gerrymandering. We need to put all our efforts into stopping these tactics. There are many attorneys working to do just that. They need our support.
Is there a specific organization with lawyers focused on this specific issue, Celeste?
Check out Democracy Docket, and read the postings that Marc Elias puts out. He is one of the attorneys who is deeply involved in law suits fighting against the attack by the right on our voting rights.
110 days until the midterms?
110 days until the November off-year elections, and 473 til next year’s midterms
Given that the midterm Senate elections are mostly fought in Republican territory, I would be very interested in seeing Trump’s approval rating from ‘24 Trump voters, independents, and Republicans. I don’t know if the polling samples have big enough sub-groups to do that. But it’s take frustration or cynicism or outright rejection from former Trump voters to flip Senate seats outside of Maine and maybe North Carolina.
According to YouGov, 85% of 2024 Trump voters approve of him. In comparison 95% of Harris voters disapprove https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/econTabReport_fFL8Pon.pdf#page13
Thank you.
I was more thinking trend lines, but that is still helpful.
They’ve got trends too! https://today.yougov.com/topics/politics/trackers/donald-trump-approval?crossBreak=republican
Thanks.
Interesting how Trump’s approval rating has barely moved among aged 65+ respondents, but dramatically worsened with under 30 respondents.
So far, Democrats are being smart about how they use this issue. Calling for votes on it puts the Republicans on record as either supporting or blocking the release of the Epstein materials. So far, the Democrats have put Republican committee members on record as opposing it. Now, Representative Ro Khana (D) has partnered with Representative Thomas Massey (R) for a discharge petition that overrides Speaker Johnson to allow the House to vote on it. The earliest it could move to a vote, however, would be in September, when Republicans are hoping that interest in the Epstein matters will decline. Although Mike Johnson supposedly has called for the release of the materials (it's probably boxes and boxes of evidence that was examined in the investigation as to whether to bring charges), I suspect that he is holding up his finger to see which way the wind is blowing. If he truly wanted the files released, he would allow the vote now. We have seen this game before--apparent fractures, then reuniting against the Democrats, as they did when they kept the government open, and on the Big Brutal Bill and the recissions package.
Trump went into this term high on his own supply regarding immigration. I think if he had gone about it by actually removing criminals and actually deporting them to their home country, he could have won on this issue.
Now he's bringing up the OG Alcatraz again, he's determined to reopen it. A complete wreck, they would have to tear the old building down and rebuild. No roads, everything has to come by boat or helicopter. The expense alone would rival the cost of one of Elon's rockets blowing up.
There may be 110 days til the November election but there as the midterms are commonly thought of as the election midway through a presidential term when all house seats and 1/3 of senate seats are up for election we have to wait for November 2026 for midterms
"Midterms watch
There are still 110 days until the election"
What election is this? The midterms are in 2026, and we are still in 2025. In fact from July 18, 2025, which is today, to the midterms on November 3, 2026, there are 474 days.
A numbers guy should not make this kind of ARITHMETIC mistake.
Maybe the 2025 Election day (eg VA and NJ have gubernatorial elections this November?) But agree this isn’t the “midterm” date as that term is generally understood.
Agreed, the way this was written was confusing. I’ve corrected it
Anyone who isn't a reactive clown knew what you were saying.