Donald Trump's approval on immigration has collapsed 17 points since taking office, and support for abolishing Immigration and Customs Enforcement has swung 50 points since Sept. 2024.
You know it’s bad for the Republicans when even Texan Governor Greg Abbott, who pardoned Daniel Perry for murdering protestor Garrett Foster AFTER a jury found him guilty, starts back-peddling immigration overreach on national TV.
The administration is acting without regard for public opinion or Congressional approval. The San Francisco Chronicle reported yesterday that Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth approved the use of Fort Snelling to support a "manpower surge Minneapolis to counter protests against large-scale immigration enforcement in the city. Days ago, the administration put approximately 1,500 active-duty soldiers on standby for deployment there, several outlets reported. "
Active duty soldiers on standby for deployment there.
That would require invoking the Insurrection Act, which would not really apply, but this administration does not care about the law. Or public opinion. Or Congressional approval.
The Joint Chiefs of Staff could stop this but it's not clear if they would.
"The infrastructure request and approval appears to show that the federal agencies have no plans to ramp down their immigration enforcement in the region. "
""The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) requests support from the Department of War (DoW) to provide existing infrastructure to U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP), a component of DHS, specifically an area for parking approximately 300-500 vehicles and 10 storage trailers, a ready room space for approximal 500-800 CBP personnel, a space to house, maintain and operate five CBP Air Assets, access to a magazine to store munitions, and other necessary facilities to support operations in the Minneapolis, Minnesota metropolitan area," the email said." https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/ar-AA1V1Vtw
So the scene is set for deploying a military invasion - shooting into crowds, military vehicles in the streets and overhead. Tell me this is not a police state.
When a maniacal Federal tyrant and his toadies might try to intimidate the People, deny their rights and orchestrate violent crimes against them, our Founding Fathers designed a cure;. The 2nd Amendment! It reads; " A well regulated Militia being necessary, to the security of a Free State, the right of the people to keep and bear Arms shall not be infringed" Every Democratic Governor in every Blue State must put their National Guard on notice: "NO KINGS IN AMERICA" and "NO GESTAPO IN AMERICA" Save Democracy. Be prepared to contain the criminal, unconstitutional behavior of ICE and CBP in your State.
At the risk of asking more of you, I wonder if it would be instructive on your approval timeline to show what were the likely topics when Trump's approval changed.
For instance:
Day 1 looks like pardoning J6
Trend though the end of April is EOs, tariffs, and Liberation Day, ending with TACO day.
Slight improvement until LA demonstrations and KAG deportation.
Late October, like the lingering shutdown.
And now, ICE/CBP/DHS killings.
I'm sure you can do better than me. It would also be good to see that in other presidencies.
As an example, for Biden it was maybe slow COVID recovery, Afghanistan pullout, inflation.
1. In the visual “Net support for abolishing ICE”, the word immigration is misspelled. I’m not one of those people, but I thought you might want to know, particularly given that this article is in front of the paywall.
2. I can confirm that “anti-ICE” talk has broken into several communities that normally refrain from political topics. Perhaps even more importantly, the anti-ICE quips and memes aren’t even the sort of ironic, “nothing is sacred” style of internet speak. From what I have seen in the DIY communities I visit (for instance), the sentiment is more “this is actually evil”.
I have MAGA-leaning family members who broke their support of Trump's immigration policies in his first term because of his family separation policy. While it was soon eclipsed by the shooting, don't discount the impact of little Liam and his bunny hat. Most people draw a line at hurting defenseless kids and/or animals.
Elliott, Rs in Congress particularly in swing districts and states will run away from this by holding hearings etc, so how penetrating is the current shift in public opinion?
As it happens, I remember the swing on Vietnam that came with the Tet offensive. I had been thinking something like what Morris theorizes and documents.
I also remember that it took five more years and many more deaths and a lot more political realignment to get to the end of the Vietnam catastrophe with the eviction of Nixon from the White House. We move faster today which is both a help and a source of terror. But the American people do move.
I was thinking the same while reading this article. Tipping points are vital and necessary, but they are only the beginning of a longer road to see meaningful change. To your Vietnam example of how long it took to get rid of Nixon (he was, after all, elected in November, 1968--months after the Tet Offensive), I would add that Bush was reelected after Abu Ghraib.
Another "tipping point" example is the horror people across the country saw on their TV screens when Bull Connor sicked attack dogs and aimed fire hoses at peaceful civil rights protestors in Alabama in 1963. A critically important event, but only one of many on the tortured path to greater racial equality.
The Anime and gaming communities are posting anti-ICE content. My son showed me one while I was reading this article. That is a community that rarely ventures into the outside world. If it's breaking thru there, more evidence of a tipping point
Maybe there is a light at the end of this sad, enraging, dark tunnel.
Now, if we can just get the Epstein files released and put some serious pressure on the MAGA cult when they "see" who Trump really is and has always been.
Good stuff. That it took a 2nd killing on video in cold blood to reach the tipping point is equally as worthy of a deep dive (I get it. I get it. Nixon still popular until he wasn't). Not sure a Dem strategy that relies on Trumpworld to go way too far (ICE, Greenland, drinking bleach) is a sound one but will take it.
Saturday afternoon, as Democrats and broadly speaking, the left, were winning the war over the disinformation coming from Trump, Noem, DHS, etc. it clicked for me. It was a tipping point because the right's share of voice on social media is so much larger than the left's, yet we were winning the battle on social media.
Now comes another hard part. Our elected leaders need to keep pressing the advantage every single day. We all need to push our elected officials every single day to not back down. We have the public on our side.
You know it’s bad for the Republicans when even Texan Governor Greg Abbott, who pardoned Daniel Perry for murdering protestor Garrett Foster AFTER a jury found him guilty, starts back-peddling immigration overreach on national TV.
The administration is acting without regard for public opinion or Congressional approval. The San Francisco Chronicle reported yesterday that Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth approved the use of Fort Snelling to support a "manpower surge Minneapolis to counter protests against large-scale immigration enforcement in the city. Days ago, the administration put approximately 1,500 active-duty soldiers on standby for deployment there, several outlets reported. "
Active duty soldiers on standby for deployment there.
That would require invoking the Insurrection Act, which would not really apply, but this administration does not care about the law. Or public opinion. Or Congressional approval.
The Joint Chiefs of Staff could stop this but it's not clear if they would.
"The infrastructure request and approval appears to show that the federal agencies have no plans to ramp down their immigration enforcement in the region. "
""The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) requests support from the Department of War (DoW) to provide existing infrastructure to U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP), a component of DHS, specifically an area for parking approximately 300-500 vehicles and 10 storage trailers, a ready room space for approximal 500-800 CBP personnel, a space to house, maintain and operate five CBP Air Assets, access to a magazine to store munitions, and other necessary facilities to support operations in the Minneapolis, Minnesota metropolitan area," the email said." https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/ar-AA1V1Vtw
So the scene is set for deploying a military invasion - shooting into crowds, military vehicles in the streets and overhead. Tell me this is not a police state.
When a maniacal Federal tyrant and his toadies might try to intimidate the People, deny their rights and orchestrate violent crimes against them, our Founding Fathers designed a cure;. The 2nd Amendment! It reads; " A well regulated Militia being necessary, to the security of a Free State, the right of the people to keep and bear Arms shall not be infringed" Every Democratic Governor in every Blue State must put their National Guard on notice: "NO KINGS IN AMERICA" and "NO GESTAPO IN AMERICA" Save Democracy. Be prepared to contain the criminal, unconstitutional behavior of ICE and CBP in your State.
Great work and analysis as usual.
At the risk of asking more of you, I wonder if it would be instructive on your approval timeline to show what were the likely topics when Trump's approval changed.
For instance:
Day 1 looks like pardoning J6
Trend though the end of April is EOs, tariffs, and Liberation Day, ending with TACO day.
Slight improvement until LA demonstrations and KAG deportation.
Late October, like the lingering shutdown.
And now, ICE/CBP/DHS killings.
I'm sure you can do better than me. It would also be good to see that in other presidencies.
As an example, for Biden it was maybe slow COVID recovery, Afghanistan pullout, inflation.
Great essay.
Magnificent breakdown.
Two things:
1. In the visual “Net support for abolishing ICE”, the word immigration is misspelled. I’m not one of those people, but I thought you might want to know, particularly given that this article is in front of the paywall.
2. I can confirm that “anti-ICE” talk has broken into several communities that normally refrain from political topics. Perhaps even more importantly, the anti-ICE quips and memes aren’t even the sort of ironic, “nothing is sacred” style of internet speak. From what I have seen in the DIY communities I visit (for instance), the sentiment is more “this is actually evil”.
Keep up the excellent work.
I have MAGA-leaning family members who broke their support of Trump's immigration policies in his first term because of his family separation policy. While it was soon eclipsed by the shooting, don't discount the impact of little Liam and his bunny hat. Most people draw a line at hurting defenseless kids and/or animals.
Elliott, Rs in Congress particularly in swing districts and states will run away from this by holding hearings etc, so how penetrating is the current shift in public opinion?
"There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen."
As it happens, I remember the swing on Vietnam that came with the Tet offensive. I had been thinking something like what Morris theorizes and documents.
I also remember that it took five more years and many more deaths and a lot more political realignment to get to the end of the Vietnam catastrophe with the eviction of Nixon from the White House. We move faster today which is both a help and a source of terror. But the American people do move.
I was thinking the same while reading this article. Tipping points are vital and necessary, but they are only the beginning of a longer road to see meaningful change. To your Vietnam example of how long it took to get rid of Nixon (he was, after all, elected in November, 1968--months after the Tet Offensive), I would add that Bush was reelected after Abu Ghraib.
Another "tipping point" example is the horror people across the country saw on their TV screens when Bull Connor sicked attack dogs and aimed fire hoses at peaceful civil rights protestors in Alabama in 1963. A critically important event, but only one of many on the tortured path to greater racial equality.
The Anime and gaming communities are posting anti-ICE content. My son showed me one while I was reading this article. That is a community that rarely ventures into the outside world. If it's breaking thru there, more evidence of a tipping point
Maybe there is a light at the end of this sad, enraging, dark tunnel.
Now, if we can just get the Epstein files released and put some serious pressure on the MAGA cult when they "see" who Trump really is and has always been.
Very important as he will shift the narrative pretty quickly!
I pray to God that you're right, brother.
Net net, isn't Trump confirming what well adjusted adults everywhere have always known? That nobody likes a seething, unchecked asshole.
Good stuff. That it took a 2nd killing on video in cold blood to reach the tipping point is equally as worthy of a deep dive (I get it. I get it. Nixon still popular until he wasn't). Not sure a Dem strategy that relies on Trumpworld to go way too far (ICE, Greenland, drinking bleach) is a sound one but will take it.
This is such good analysis. Thank you!
Saturday afternoon, as Democrats and broadly speaking, the left, were winning the war over the disinformation coming from Trump, Noem, DHS, etc. it clicked for me. It was a tipping point because the right's share of voice on social media is so much larger than the left's, yet we were winning the battle on social media.
Now comes another hard part. Our elected leaders need to keep pressing the advantage every single day. We all need to push our elected officials every single day to not back down. We have the public on our side.
Absolutely - call, email and take to the streets. Trump is on his back foot.