Donald Trump's approval on immigration has collapsed 17 points since taking office, and support for abolishing Immigration and Customs Enforcement has swung 50 points since Sept. 2024.
Keep up the excellent analysis. I was 10 yrs old during Tet Offensive my family was impacted severely by the Vietnam war and remember Walter (CBS) brining it all home. Can you share any data on Congressional District residents opinions in MN? Asking for a former friend of Tom E.
Maybe your most valuable and encouraging column yet! I'm a word person (editor by trade, writer by avocation) who's always been pretty comfortable with, and interested in, numbers. I whooped, pumped my fist, and yelled "YES!!" when I read this sentence: "The way I have been thinking about this is that by pushing extreme enforcement measures that are now resulting in the deaths of innocent American citizens, Trump has changed the images people attach to the word 'immigration' in their heads."
In polls "immigration" and "undocumented" are abstractions, out there somewhere -- until they aren't. Until they apply to someone you know personally, and like, and maybe depend on. The Trump administration has brought the abstractions down to earth and made them real. I love your examples of the Tet offensive and Abu Ghraib. Because the Tet offensive happened the year I turned 17 and finally woke up to what "my" government was up to. By the time Abu Ghraib hit the news, nothing the U.S. government did surprised me.
I confess, however, that I'm shocked by the Trump II administration. I didn't really believe it would get *this* bad, so bad that white people were both being targeted and caring about what was being done to others. I was wrong: it did. But I deeply suspected that over the last few decades the U.S. public (apart from people I knew personally, of course <g>) had been lulled into apathy and hopelessness about "we the people" and what "democracy" was supposed to mean. I was wrong about that too, and OMG am I ever glad I was.
You know it’s bad for the Republicans when even Texan Governor Greg Abbott, who pardoned Daniel Perry for murdering protestor Garrett Foster AFTER a jury found him guilty, starts back-peddling immigration overreach on national TV.
Right now, Texas republickers are running Anti Sharia Law commercials during prime time! Are we planning on nuking Iran? Are we going to nuke Saudi Aramco in Houston? Are we going to seize the Chinese LNG plant in Lake Charles, La.? America first was a bad joke and worse policy.
I saw that commercial also! So nutty! Same people dictating religious doctrine in public schools. Totally incapable of defining tyrannical behavior found within their own silo.
The administration is acting without regard for public opinion or Congressional approval. The San Francisco Chronicle reported yesterday that Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth approved the use of Fort Snelling to support a "manpower surge Minneapolis to counter protests against large-scale immigration enforcement in the city. Days ago, the administration put approximately 1,500 active-duty soldiers on standby for deployment there, several outlets reported. "
Active duty soldiers on standby for deployment there.
That would require invoking the Insurrection Act, which would not really apply, but this administration does not care about the law. Or public opinion. Or Congressional approval.
The Joint Chiefs of Staff could stop this but it's not clear if they would.
"The infrastructure request and approval appears to show that the federal agencies have no plans to ramp down their immigration enforcement in the region. "
""The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) requests support from the Department of War (DoW) to provide existing infrastructure to U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP), a component of DHS, specifically an area for parking approximately 300-500 vehicles and 10 storage trailers, a ready room space for approximal 500-800 CBP personnel, a space to house, maintain and operate five CBP Air Assets, access to a magazine to store munitions, and other necessary facilities to support operations in the Minneapolis, Minnesota metropolitan area," the email said." https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/ar-AA1V1Vtw
So the scene is set for deploying a military invasion - shooting into crowds, military vehicles in the streets and overhead. Tell me this is not a police state.
When a maniacal Federal tyrant and his toadies might try to intimidate the People, deny their rights and orchestrate violent crimes against them, our Founding Fathers designed a cure;. The 2nd Amendment! It reads; " A well regulated Militia being necessary, to the security of a Free State, the right of the people to keep and bear Arms shall not be infringed" Every Democratic Governor in every Blue State must put their National Guard on notice: "NO KINGS IN AMERICA" and "NO GESTAPO IN AMERICA" Save Democracy. Be prepared to contain the criminal, unconstitutional behavior of ICE and CBP in your State.
At the risk of asking more of you, I wonder if it would be instructive on your approval timeline to show what were the likely topics when Trump's approval changed.
For instance:
Day 1 looks like pardoning J6
Trend though the end of April is EOs, tariffs, and Liberation Day, ending with TACO day.
Slight improvement until LA demonstrations and KAG deportation.
Late October, like the lingering shutdown.
And now, ICE/CBP/DHS killings.
I'm sure you can do better than me. It would also be good to see that in other presidencies.
As an example, for Biden it was maybe slow COVID recovery, Afghanistan pullout, inflation.
1. In the visual “Net support for abolishing ICE”, the word immigration is misspelled. I’m not one of those people, but I thought you might want to know, particularly given that this article is in front of the paywall.
2. I can confirm that “anti-ICE” talk has broken into several communities that normally refrain from political topics. Perhaps even more importantly, the anti-ICE quips and memes aren’t even the sort of ironic, “nothing is sacred” style of internet speak. From what I have seen in the DIY communities I visit (for instance), the sentiment is more “this is actually evil”.
I have MAGA-leaning family members who broke their support of Trump's immigration policies in his first term because of his family separation policy. While it was soon eclipsed by the shooting, don't discount the impact of little Liam and his bunny hat. Most people draw a line at hurting defenseless kids and/or animals.
Elliott, Rs in Congress particularly in swing districts and states will run away from this by holding hearings etc, so how penetrating is the current shift in public opinion?
As it happens, I remember the swing on Vietnam that came with the Tet offensive. I had been thinking something like what Morris theorizes and documents.
I also remember that it took five more years and many more deaths and a lot more political realignment to get to the end of the Vietnam catastrophe with the eviction of Nixon from the White House. We move faster today which is both a help and a source of terror. But the American people do move.
I would argue that two events from 1968-1970 also had a huge impact on turning the tide of the Vietnam war. Seymour Hersh won a Pulitzer Prize for his reporting on the MY LAI massacre, which occurred March 16. Then, in 1970, National guard troops murdered 4 and wounded 9 protesters at Kent State, Ohio. I still remember the photos. I said ten years ago maybe we need another Kent State or My Lai to wake up a sleepy, compliant nation. Looks like we will get a do-over, deserved or not'
Those years were a hell of time, horror following horror. Those of us who recall it recognize the present era of constant new traumas -- except the country survived that round. Will we survive this one as a recognizable place?
I was thinking the same while reading this article. Tipping points are vital and necessary, but they are only the beginning of a longer road to see meaningful change. To your Vietnam example of how long it took to get rid of Nixon (he was, after all, elected in November, 1968--months after the Tet Offensive), I would add that Bush was reelected after Abu Ghraib.
Another "tipping point" example is the horror people across the country saw on their TV screens when Bull Connor sicked attack dogs and aimed fire hoses at peaceful civil rights protestors in Alabama in 1963. A critically important event, but only one of many on the tortured path to greater racial equality.
The Anime and gaming communities are posting anti-ICE content. My son showed me one while I was reading this article. That is a community that rarely ventures into the outside world. If it's breaking thru there, more evidence of a tipping point
Maybe there is a light at the end of this sad, enraging, dark tunnel.
Now, if we can just get the Epstein files released and put some serious pressure on the MAGA cult when they "see" who Trump really is and has always been.
Another sign that the Empirical Left is on the rise! Thanks again SIN for a great analysis.
Keep up the excellent analysis. I was 10 yrs old during Tet Offensive my family was impacted severely by the Vietnam war and remember Walter (CBS) brining it all home. Can you share any data on Congressional District residents opinions in MN? Asking for a former friend of Tom E.
bringing
Maybe your most valuable and encouraging column yet! I'm a word person (editor by trade, writer by avocation) who's always been pretty comfortable with, and interested in, numbers. I whooped, pumped my fist, and yelled "YES!!" when I read this sentence: "The way I have been thinking about this is that by pushing extreme enforcement measures that are now resulting in the deaths of innocent American citizens, Trump has changed the images people attach to the word 'immigration' in their heads."
In polls "immigration" and "undocumented" are abstractions, out there somewhere -- until they aren't. Until they apply to someone you know personally, and like, and maybe depend on. The Trump administration has brought the abstractions down to earth and made them real. I love your examples of the Tet offensive and Abu Ghraib. Because the Tet offensive happened the year I turned 17 and finally woke up to what "my" government was up to. By the time Abu Ghraib hit the news, nothing the U.S. government did surprised me.
I confess, however, that I'm shocked by the Trump II administration. I didn't really believe it would get *this* bad, so bad that white people were both being targeted and caring about what was being done to others. I was wrong: it did. But I deeply suspected that over the last few decades the U.S. public (apart from people I knew personally, of course <g>) had been lulled into apathy and hopelessness about "we the people" and what "democracy" was supposed to mean. I was wrong about that too, and OMG am I ever glad I was.
You know it’s bad for the Republicans when even Texan Governor Greg Abbott, who pardoned Daniel Perry for murdering protestor Garrett Foster AFTER a jury found him guilty, starts back-peddling immigration overreach on national TV.
Right now, Texas republickers are running Anti Sharia Law commercials during prime time! Are we planning on nuking Iran? Are we going to nuke Saudi Aramco in Houston? Are we going to seize the Chinese LNG plant in Lake Charles, La.? America first was a bad joke and worse policy.
I saw that commercial also! So nutty! Same people dictating religious doctrine in public schools. Totally incapable of defining tyrannical behavior found within their own silo.
The administration is acting without regard for public opinion or Congressional approval. The San Francisco Chronicle reported yesterday that Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth approved the use of Fort Snelling to support a "manpower surge Minneapolis to counter protests against large-scale immigration enforcement in the city. Days ago, the administration put approximately 1,500 active-duty soldiers on standby for deployment there, several outlets reported. "
Active duty soldiers on standby for deployment there.
That would require invoking the Insurrection Act, which would not really apply, but this administration does not care about the law. Or public opinion. Or Congressional approval.
The Joint Chiefs of Staff could stop this but it's not clear if they would.
"The infrastructure request and approval appears to show that the federal agencies have no plans to ramp down their immigration enforcement in the region. "
""The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) requests support from the Department of War (DoW) to provide existing infrastructure to U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP), a component of DHS, specifically an area for parking approximately 300-500 vehicles and 10 storage trailers, a ready room space for approximal 500-800 CBP personnel, a space to house, maintain and operate five CBP Air Assets, access to a magazine to store munitions, and other necessary facilities to support operations in the Minneapolis, Minnesota metropolitan area," the email said." https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/ar-AA1V1Vtw
So the scene is set for deploying a military invasion - shooting into crowds, military vehicles in the streets and overhead. Tell me this is not a police state.
Please read Naomi Klein's THE SHOCK DOCTRINE. None of this is new. The only difference is They are doing it to Us.
When a maniacal Federal tyrant and his toadies might try to intimidate the People, deny their rights and orchestrate violent crimes against them, our Founding Fathers designed a cure;. The 2nd Amendment! It reads; " A well regulated Militia being necessary, to the security of a Free State, the right of the people to keep and bear Arms shall not be infringed" Every Democratic Governor in every Blue State must put their National Guard on notice: "NO KINGS IN AMERICA" and "NO GESTAPO IN AMERICA" Save Democracy. Be prepared to contain the criminal, unconstitutional behavior of ICE and CBP in your State.
And no more federalizing National Guard troops. State guards are our only "well regulated militia".
Great work and analysis as usual.
At the risk of asking more of you, I wonder if it would be instructive on your approval timeline to show what were the likely topics when Trump's approval changed.
For instance:
Day 1 looks like pardoning J6
Trend though the end of April is EOs, tariffs, and Liberation Day, ending with TACO day.
Slight improvement until LA demonstrations and KAG deportation.
Late October, like the lingering shutdown.
And now, ICE/CBP/DHS killings.
I'm sure you can do better than me. It would also be good to see that in other presidencies.
As an example, for Biden it was maybe slow COVID recovery, Afghanistan pullout, inflation.
Great essay.
Magnificent breakdown.
Two things:
1. In the visual “Net support for abolishing ICE”, the word immigration is misspelled. I’m not one of those people, but I thought you might want to know, particularly given that this article is in front of the paywall.
2. I can confirm that “anti-ICE” talk has broken into several communities that normally refrain from political topics. Perhaps even more importantly, the anti-ICE quips and memes aren’t even the sort of ironic, “nothing is sacred” style of internet speak. From what I have seen in the DIY communities I visit (for instance), the sentiment is more “this is actually evil”.
Keep up the excellent work.
I have MAGA-leaning family members who broke their support of Trump's immigration policies in his first term because of his family separation policy. While it was soon eclipsed by the shooting, don't discount the impact of little Liam and his bunny hat. Most people draw a line at hurting defenseless kids and/or animals.
Unfortunately, the people in power relish it. The violence and chaos is the point'
Elliott, Rs in Congress particularly in swing districts and states will run away from this by holding hearings etc, so how penetrating is the current shift in public opinion?
"There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen."
As it happens, I remember the swing on Vietnam that came with the Tet offensive. I had been thinking something like what Morris theorizes and documents.
I also remember that it took five more years and many more deaths and a lot more political realignment to get to the end of the Vietnam catastrophe with the eviction of Nixon from the White House. We move faster today which is both a help and a source of terror. But the American people do move.
I would argue that two events from 1968-1970 also had a huge impact on turning the tide of the Vietnam war. Seymour Hersh won a Pulitzer Prize for his reporting on the MY LAI massacre, which occurred March 16. Then, in 1970, National guard troops murdered 4 and wounded 9 protesters at Kent State, Ohio. I still remember the photos. I said ten years ago maybe we need another Kent State or My Lai to wake up a sleepy, compliant nation. Looks like we will get a do-over, deserved or not'
Those years were a hell of time, horror following horror. Those of us who recall it recognize the present era of constant new traumas -- except the country survived that round. Will we survive this one as a recognizable place?
I was thinking the same while reading this article. Tipping points are vital and necessary, but they are only the beginning of a longer road to see meaningful change. To your Vietnam example of how long it took to get rid of Nixon (he was, after all, elected in November, 1968--months after the Tet Offensive), I would add that Bush was reelected after Abu Ghraib.
Another "tipping point" example is the horror people across the country saw on their TV screens when Bull Connor sicked attack dogs and aimed fire hoses at peaceful civil rights protestors in Alabama in 1963. A critically important event, but only one of many on the tortured path to greater racial equality.
The Anime and gaming communities are posting anti-ICE content. My son showed me one while I was reading this article. That is a community that rarely ventures into the outside world. If it's breaking thru there, more evidence of a tipping point
Maybe there is a light at the end of this sad, enraging, dark tunnel.
Now, if we can just get the Epstein files released and put some serious pressure on the MAGA cult when they "see" who Trump really is and has always been.
I think he is going to start acting "presidential" pretty soon!
Very important as he will shift the narrative pretty quickly!
I pray to God that you're right, brother.