Trump's job approval rating by state

At a -8 net rating nationally, the president is underwater in all the swing states

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This post is an early data release, included as part of your paid membership to Strength In Numbers. Feel free to share the post widely, which encourages conversions. I will be circulating results to the full audience as part of this week’s Chart of the Week post on Friday.

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In an attempt to make presidential job approval ratings more electorally impactful and meaningful in the real world, I have whipped up a very simple model to estimate President Donald Trump’s approval rating in every state based on his national net job approval rating — currently at -8 (44% approve, 52% disapprove).

Trump has increased his rating slightly over the last 2 weeks, likely as coverage of the Kilmar Abrego Garcia case has fallen off the news agenda and Trump has relented somewhat on tariffs. But note he is still underwater and far below where he started his second term.

Mapping Trump’s national rating onto the states is relatively straightforward. The underlying statistical model I’m using simply adjusts the margin between Trump and Kamala Harris in each state in 2024 against the president based on the difference between his margin in the national popular vote (+1.5) and his current net rating.¹