Support for partisan gerrymandering is growing | Weekly roundup for August 31, 2025
Also this week: Demographic math favors Mamdani in New York; Election denier appointed head of election integrity at Homeland Security; Forecasting population and Electoral Vote change; + more
Dear readers,
Here’s this week’s data roundup. It’s shorter than usual to keep you in the loop while minding your Labor Day long weekend. I lead the newsletter with commentary on the consequences for democracy of endless tit-for-tat partisan gerrymandering, and cover other new political data released last week.
On deck here at Strength In Numbers: On Tuesday, I'm publishing a long essay about AI “polling” and what this technology means for the future of public opinion research. And on Friday, I’ll have the usual Chart of the Week about… whatever happens this week! I may write an extra piece on Thursday, news and time permitting.
As always, if you have thoughts or other data to send around/a story of yours for me to feature, my email is contact@gelliottmorris.com.
Gerrymandering and the anti-democratic whirlpool
In 2020, the political scientist Lee Drutman published a book titled “Breaking the Two-Party Doom Loop: The Case for Multiparty Democracy in America.” I interviewed Drutman about this book and subsequently pointed out that what I was truly afraid of was not a “doom loop” — the electoral systems and institutions that trap us in a two-party system — per se, but that zero-sum politics would cause an inevitable ratcheting up of partisan rigging that would undermine democracy and put us on a path toward autocracy or authoritarianism.
What I feared, I told Lee, was the “anti-democratic whirlpool.” I was scared that the two parties — but especially/mainly Republicans — would increasingly pursue partisan power by pulling America into this spiraling current of tit-for-tat partisan gerrymandering, delegitimization of partisan opponents, and the like that would pull our ship of state into the deep dark abyss of authoritarianism.
So I was optimistic this week when our new Strength In Numbers/Verasight poll came out and I got to tell everyone that support for democracy and fair elections is high — indeed, people think it’s more important than their party winning! Hooray, that’s how it’s supposed to be. Even better, people supported reforms like mandatory nationwide independent redistricting commissions and proportional representation! Can we avoid the whirlpool after all?
Well, maybe we will, maybe we won’t. But YouGov had to come in and ruin my mood either way. In a new poll, they find that since early August, Democrats have become much more likely to support partisan gerrymandering if it counters Republican rigging:
And we see the same thing on the GOP side, when asked about gerrymandering in California:
This is the predictable consequence of Trump further polarizing the mapmaking process by demanding that Texas redraw maps to give Republicans more seats. Republicans rig → Democrats see the need to counter-rig → and on and on we go until no more fair maps exist anymore.
That’s the anti-democratic whirlpool in action.
Now to be clear, I do not deny the obvious necessity of using gerrymandering to prevent the other side from rigging elections against you. As you do not bring a knife to a gun fight, you do not bring a plea for our better nature to prevail in politics. Democrats are justified in wanting to fight Republican rigging.
And there’s a Trump factor to consider too. As leader of the GOP Trump has led the party in an extremely anti-democracy, authoritarian direction. He has unilaterally polarized support of and adherence to the democratic rules of the game. He is unique in steering the ship of shape into the whirlpool.
But there’s no denying that this arms-race dynamic leads us on a perilous path. Once the rigging starts, it becomes a matter of political survival to play the same game as your opponent. This is what makes the whirlpool so dangerous. Once you’re pulled in, there are few ways out. Democracy suffers as a result.
However, one life raft has appeared in YouGov’s data: More people than ever are now aware that there is no federal requirement that mapmakers draw impartial maps:
An overwhelming plurality of Americans are now saying partisan gerrymandering is a problem. Time to get to work on demanding a solution.
What you missed at Strength In Numbers
This was a full week. Subscribers to Strength In Numbers received five articles over the last seven days:
On Friday, I wrote about how voters see crime as a problem but don’t support federalizing police departments or deploying the military domestically:
On Thursday, I published our August Q&A:
On Wednesday, I wrote about how Democrats across the ideological spectrum are winning special elections on an agenda of affordability and empathy with working families:
On Tuesday, we published our August Strength In Numbers/Verasight poll:
Democrats lead the U.S. House generic ballot by 8; voters back fair maps and oppose Trump's tariffs
And here’s last week’s data roundup, from Sunday:
Even more numbers!
A collection of links from the last week:
My former colleague Geoffrey Skelley does the math on Zohran Mamdani’s voter base. He says, “An unpopular mayor, a disliked former governor, and a Republican are poor alternatives for anti-Mamdani forces to rally around”
A woman whose faulty math on voter data in Pennsylvania was cited by President Trump on Jan 6., 2021 as evidence the 2020 election was stolen from him has been put in charge of “election integrity” at the Department of Homeland Security. Activist Heather Honey has been placed in the new role, which did not exist before Trump created it this year. I imagine the position will be used to sow doubt on the legitimacy of mail ballots, which the president wants to do away with permanently.
A poll from Data for Progress finds a majority of Republicans want Trump to run for a third term in 2028.
A new measure of polarization in Congress just dropped. Meet the Bridge Grade.
This graph of population growth in St Louis versus Hiroshima, Japan was striking.
Many Republicans, including JD Vance, are trying to define “American” as being a white American whose family has lived here for 300 years. YouGov did a poll asking Americans what it means to be American, and most voters disagreed with Vance’s definition. In fact, “being white” was the least important characteristic to them.
Finally, my former colleague at 538 points out that the New York Times’s math on projected changes in Electoral College votes in 2030 is overblown.
Updates from the data portal
Trump approval:
Trump issue approval:
House generic ballot average:
The charts on the data portal update every day. Feel free to use and cite them liberally!
That’s it for your major political data stories this week.
Got more for next week? Email your links or add to the comments below!
Have a nice week,
Elliott
Looks like the images for today’s post didn’t upload, I blame Amtrak wifi. All fixed now! Thanks for reading!
The key difference: in Texas the maps are “forever”. In California, the voters will decide to use the maps to counteract Texas until 2030. In Texas: voters have no voice. In California: voters have a voice and it goes back to independent redistricting in 2030.