We might be in for a surprise in South Carolina

Why I think a Biden win is more likely than (some of?) the pundits think

The South Carolina Democratic presidential primary on Saturday will be a crucial test for Joe Biden. It will either be his final disappointing contest—if he doesn’t win there, his campaign is probably over—or the first of a series of victories he’ll need in order to emerge as 2020’s comeback kid. From a non-horse-race perspective, South Carolina is also important because it’s the first state where African American Democrats—the second largest of the party’s various demographic constituencies, and roughly the majority in SC—will have a big say over who they want to carry the party’s banner into the November general election.

It is because the results in South Carolina are so important that the history of handicapping the contest (it ain’t great!) is so concerning. Let’s take the state’s 2016 Democratic primary as our prime example. 

Then, polls missed the outcome of the contest. According to the record-keeping at RealClearPolitics.com, eight of the nine polls conducted in the final 10 da…