What midterm generic ballot polls tell us this early

There's a lot of predictive uncertainty. But the party in power reliably loses ground between this point in the cycle and Election Day.

I’ve been working on our Strength In Numbers generic ballot average, and wanted to share some things with paying members before making it public.

Here's a short members-only post about generic ballot polls and the midterms. Credit to Mary Radcliffe for compiling the historical polling data used in this analysis.